Flash Flood Warning 145, NWS Memphis, TN

463 
WGUS74 KMEG 191206
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
706 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

ARC031-055-075-121-191445-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0145.000000T0000Z-160819T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-GREENE AR-
706 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD...LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

AT 703 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED FLOODING IN HOXIE AND WALNUT RIDGE. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
POCAHONTAS...WALNUT RIDGE...HOXIE...BONO...BLACK ROCK...
LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK...
CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...IMBODEN...COLLEGE CITY...PORTIA...
STRAWBERRY...LYNN...O'KEAN...ALICIA...EGYPT...MINTURN...ANNIEVILLE...
FONTAINE AND WALCOTT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 9135 3624 9120 3624 9083 3595 9053
      3581 9103 3589 9103 3589 9136

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A deep tropical moisture feed tapping both tropical East Pacific
and Gulf moisture continues to stream across the Mid South. This
persistent moisture axis will remain over the forecast region into
the weekend until a stronger northern stream shortwave and
associated cold front sweeps through the region clearing the deep
moisture southeast. A series of shortwave disturbances embedded
within this southwest moist flow aloft will continue the numerous
to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Mid South
today. Temperatures should be held below seasonal averages again
today due to widespread cloud cover and rain coverage.

The stronger northern stream shortwave trough will swing across
the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys Saturday and Saturday
night and the Ohio Valley Sunday. This should help to push the
cold front into the area later Saturday night and Sunday. Overall
instability should increase in association with the trough along
with increased deep layer shear across the northern half of the
area. Mid level lapse rates steepen to around 6.5 C/KM and shear
of around 30 kts north of Interstate 40 by Saturday afternoon and
evening. This may support a few strong to isolated severe storms
during this time period. Strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall
appears the be the greatest hazards. Plan to continue mention in
the latest hazardous weather outlook.

High pressure will build into the region behind the cold front
later Sunday and Sunday night. This should finally usher in a
drier and less humid airmass. In fact...it should feel more like
late September as compared to late August. Temperatures should
remain below normal along with dewpoints dropping into the upper
50s north to low/middle 60s south. This early taste of fall like
weather will continue through the first part of next week.

The surface high pressure will move east by the middle of next
week with a return of southerly flow and much higher humidity
levels. Temperatures should return to near normal levels for the
middle to end of next week. Increased moisture and a series of
shortwaves will bring a return to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the end of the extended forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF Set

Latest HRRR shows convection developing near KJBR overnight and
spreading eastward along and north of I-40. CIGS/VSBYs will drop
to IFR/MVFR as a result at KJBR, KMKL and possibly KMEM.
Meanwhile, showers continue near KTUP which may continue for a
couple more hours. Some patchy fog is possible thereafter. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and then become SW at 5-8 KTS
by the afternoon hours.

KRM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JLH