Flash Flood Warning 129, NWS Memphis, TN

618 
WGUS74 KMEG 191553
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

MSC013-017-191730-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0129.000000T0000Z-160719T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
CALHOUN AND WESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTIES...

AT 1052 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
90 MINUTES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...VARDAMAN...DERMA...PITTSBORO...
PYLAND...BIG CREEK...WOODLAND...TABBVILLE...RETREAT...LOYD...
BOUNDS...ATLANTA...SPARTA...PARKERSBURG...ELLARD...THORN...
REID AND ANCHOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8951 3407 8951 3398 8892 3381 8892
      3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903 3374 8903
      3374 8920

$$

436 
WGUS74 KMEG 191625
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

MSC013-017-191635-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0129.000000T0000Z-160719T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
1125 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CALHOUN AND WESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY
REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3385 8951 3407 8951 3398 8892 3381 8892
      3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903 3374 8903
      3374 8920

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor satellite trends this morning indicate
a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes region
and the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge of high
pressure is centered over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Mainly clear skies prevail early this morning
with surface temperatures in the middle to upper 70s across much
of the area and lower 70s near the Tennessee River.

A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in place across the
Lower Mississippi Valley today. High surface dewpoints in the
lower to middle 70s combined with highs in the middle to upper 90s
will result in heat index values reaching or exceeding 105 degrees
later this morning until early this evening. Expanded the heat
advisory over to include another tier of counties to the east of
the ongoing advisory. At this time, it appears that heat index
values will remain just below criteria across the remainder of the
area. This will continue to be monitored throughout the day with
the potential for additional adjustments to heat headlines if
conditions warrant.

Leaned towards the 00Z/06Z WRF solutions for today as the 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/HRRR have been indicating abundant convective activity
as early as this morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop mainly along the Tennessee River and portions of northeast
Mississippi during peak heating this afternoon and diminish in
coverage during the early evening hours. Short term models
suggest convective chances will be limited at best Wednesday and
Thursday and left out any mention in the forecast.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into Wednesday
and perhaps through at least Friday. Have expanded the duration of
the Heat Advisory through Wednesday. Expansion to include the
remainder of the forecast area through this period along with a
potential for an Excessive Heat Warning especially along and west
of the Mississippi River may be warranted in subsequent forecasts.

00Z long term models indicate a potential for slightly cooler
temperatures to return to the Lower Mississippi Valley early next
week along with precipitation chances. The ECMWF which usually
holds onto the upper level ridge a bit longer indicated weakening
of the ridge and more shower and thunderstorm coverage. The GFS
was on the drier side and leaned the blended forecast towards this
solution until models come into better agreement during this
period.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Light winds, VFR and high density altitudes to prevail again
today. Isolated midday through afternoon TSRA should dissipate
with loss of afternoon surface heating.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-
     Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
431 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY. HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE MID
SOUTH. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.