Flash Flood Warning 110, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 903 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this evening indicates a quasi-
stationary boundary located from West Central Missouri into
Southeast Missouri and along the Ohio River. Water Vapor Satellite
trends over the past hour or two have indicated warming cloud tops
over southern Missouri, North Mississippi, and Northeast Texas.
KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends have indicated weakening intensity
of shower/thunderstorm activity. As of 8 pm CDT, temperatures
across the Mid-South are predominantly in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Latest 00Z WRF/HRRR suggest the activity will gradually diminish
into the overnight hours. Will make adjustments to the remainder
of tonight's forecast to account for short term trends. Otherwise,
forecast is in good shape.

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed along an old
outflow boundary across North Central Mississippi this afternoon.
This the area will be the main focus of development into the
evening hours. Activity should dissipate by the overnight hours.

A weak upper low will remain in the vicinity of the Mid-South
through Tuesday. In addition, a weak stationary front stretches
along the MO/AR and TN/KY border. As a result, chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue. Some locations
may receive locally heavy rainfall while others see no rain at
all. Too hard to pinpoint where initiation will occur. A lot will
be determined by where lingering outflow boundaries exist or
where the frontal boundary sits. Highs will remain in the mid 80s
to lower 90s.

After Tuesday, rain chances will diminish and will be more
diurnal based. Highs will return to the lower to mid 90s.

A cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South on Thursday and
will bring increased rain chances for northern portions of the
Mid-South for the end of the week into early next weekend.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Convection ramped up in coverage this evening, generally
along/south of I-40 and will continue to drift slowly south as its
intensity wanes. KMEM will be on the northern edge of the
stratiform precipitation, necessitating a need to at least showers
for the next few hours. Tupelo is more likely to experience
thunder on station early this morning. No precipitation is
anticipated at the other forecast terminals overnight. Tempo MVFR
vis/ceilings will be possible within thunderstorms, with
prevailing VFR conditions otherwise. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday, mainly during the
afternoon hours at KMEM/KTUP.

Johnson

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-110630-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING COVERAGE MONDAY. STRONG GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
739 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MSZ011-100115-
QUITMAN MS-
739 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 738 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER BELEN...OR 15 MILES
EAST OF CLARKSDALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3408 9036 3430 9040 3431 9028 3424 9013
      3417 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 309DEG 11KT 3425 9032

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
756 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ARZ009-MOZ113-100130-
CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-
756 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 756 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER POLLARD...OR NEAR
CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3655 8995 3653 8996 3648 8996 3630 9032
      3643 9041 3650 9032 3650 9022 3654 9021
      3655 9019 3657 9018 3659 9019 3660 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 112DEG 2KT 3646 9029

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
823 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MSZ001-TNZ088-100200-
DESOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
823 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 823 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHAVEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL DESOTO AND SOUTH CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3508 9000 3503 8984 3490 8997 3499 9008
      3500 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 299DEG 7KT 3500 8998

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MSZ001-100230-
DESOTO MS-
847 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 846 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER WAS LOCATED NEAR OLIVE BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3489 8999 3499 8996 3499 8972 3478 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 283DEG 14KT 3496 8989

JOHNSON