Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Memphis, TN

377 
WGUS74 KMEG 061802
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ARC075-121-061811-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160706T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
102 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN IN RANDOLPH COUNTY HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3650 9078 3643 9078 3642 9076 3628 9078
      3628 9081 3609 9080 3605 9083 3604 9084
      3613 9135 3623 9135 3624 9126 3633 9126
      3633 9128 3637 9128 3639 9131 3642 9131
      3642 9135 3647 9136 3649 9140 3650 9141

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
705 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016/

A very muggy night across the Midsouth with temperatures ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints were high...ranging from
the low 70s in the east to near 80F along the Mississippi river.
Winds were from the south at generally 5 to 10 mph.

For today and tomorrow...first...a heat advisory is in effect for
a good portion of the Midsouth from late this morning through
early this evening. Second...models show next shortwave in the
plains to move east southeast across the northern Midsouth
counties this afternoon...bringing the threat for a few strong or
severe storms. CAPE values by 18z will exceed 3500 j/kg with
lapse rates near -7C. Damaging winds and localized flashflooding
are the main threats. The upper ridge is also building over our
area today...so better storm organization/SPC Slight Risk thinking
is just to our north...but it bears watching by the daycrew. The
heat advisory may have to be extended into tomorrow...as well as
an southwest Delta counties getting upgraded to an Excessive Heat
Warning. Storm chances appear minimal as a significant cap will
accompany the building ridge at 850mb.

Friday through Monday...models indicate an approaching cold front
late Friday. It's projected to stall in the lower Ohio valley
through the weekend while the upper level ridge amplifies over the
plains. Weak capping and weak convergence will allow for diurnal
convection over the area. Storms combined with a bit more cloud
cover should keep temperatures running in the upper 80s to low
90s...cooling heat indices to below 105F. A few strong or severe
pulse storm can't be ruled out...especially in the north and east.

Extended period...the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that a
deeper 500mb trough will slide across the Northern/Central
Rockies late Monday through Wednesday. This will in turn push the
upper ridge axis over the Mid Mississippi valley and Great Lakes.
Temperatures should return to the mid 90s for most...along with
decreased rain chances.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

Mainly VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. Scattered CB
clouds will develop today and a few thunderstorms are possible,
especially in the north. Gusty SW winds 10-20kts will occur today
with less than 10kts tonight.

SWC

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Benton MS-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-
     Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-
     Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
850 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
850 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY.

STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF A FORREST CITY ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TO PICKWICK LAKE LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105F WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAB/JEB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ARZ008-061700-
RANDOLPH AR-
1115 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT FOR...

NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN ARKANSAS...

AT 1114 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR DALTON...OR 17
MILES EAST OF MAMMOTH SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3648 9137 3650 9132 3650 9079 3645 9077
      3644 9078 3644 9077 3643 9078 3641 9076
      3633 9127 3637 9128 3637 9129 3639 9129
      3639 9131 3642 9131 3642 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 251DEG 30KT 3642 9125