Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

436 
WWUS54 KMAF 102302
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TXC443-102345-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160510T2345Z/
TERRELL TX-
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY...

AT 601 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TERRELL
COUNTY GAS PLANT...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF SHEFFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRELL COUNTY GAS PLANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 10168 3047 10169 3046 10170 3047 10173
      3044 10172 3042 10174 3040 10170 3034 10166
      3035 10170 3033 10174 3028 10176 3023 10194
      3044 10198 3064 10168 3062 10165 3059 10166
      3055 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 248DEG 14KT 3037 10187 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

49

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is strengthening over the northern Rockies and
westerly flow is over the CWA.  Temperatures are expected to warm up
to almost 10 degrees above normal today as southwest winds aid in
compressional warming with upper ridging developing over the region.
A dryline will be on the eastern border of the CWA with storms
expected to form just to the east of this line later this afternoon.
There is a chance some of these storms may develop across the far
Low Trans Pecos and extreme eastern Permian Basin this afternoon.
Chances of showers and storms increase across the eastern CWA this
evening into the overnight period as the dryline retreats westward.

The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the central
conus Wednesday with a cold front moving southward across the TX
panhandle.  High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be
similar to today across most of the area as southwest winds will
again prevail.  There is a slight chance of storms across the far
eastern CWA again on Wednesday as the dryline is expected to be
present across this area.  The cold front is expected to move into
the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning and will result in below
normal temperatures for Thursday. Chances of convection increase
along and behind this front on Thursday. Weak upper ridging begins
to develop over the region on Friday, but south southeast winds
allow for moisture and precipitation chances to remain across the
area.  Temperatures are also expected to warm up to near normal on
Friday.  Precipitation chances increase on Saturday as dewpoints
increase across the area.  The moisture/dryline will push to the far
eastern CWA border on Sunday resulting in decreased rain chances and
temperatures warming into the 90s.  There will be slight chances of
rain and storms across the far eastern CWA through the extended
forecast with temperatures above or near normal.

.FIRE WEATHER...

The Fire Danger Statement for locations along and west of a Hobbs,
Pecos and Alpine line will remain in effect until 11/01Z which will
allow winds and temperatures to decrease enough to alleviate
elevated fire weather conditions.  Recovery will be poor tonight
along and west of a Hobbs to Fort Stockton to Longfellow line, but
good to the east as the dryline surges westward.  There will be a
slight chance of thunderstorms tonight, but only over the Lower
Trans Pecos and extreme eastern Permian Basin.

High temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal will occur again
Wednesday, but minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 15 percent will be
along and west of a Gail to Midland to Sanderson line.  Since
southwest winds should be even less than today, only elevated fire
weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold
front will move south into the region Wednesday night and will bring
cooler air and a chance of rain, but mainly to the SE NM Plains,
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains.  Recovery will be poor
over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn area, Davis
Mountains and Presidio Valley, but good or better elsewhere.  There
will be a break in fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday as a
little cooler temperatures prevail and there will be at least a
slight chance of a wetting rain both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  94  64  76 /  10  10  30  30
Carlsbad                       56  94  57  79 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         67  93  70  92 /  20  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  62  96  63  81 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 60  87  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          54  92  56  75 /  10   0  10  20
Marfa                          45  88  49  82 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           63  94  65  77 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         63  94  65  77 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           58  97  63  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

67/80

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
117 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
117 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 /1217 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF
A HOBBS TO PECOS TO ALPINE LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL AND WINDS
DECREASE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, IF NOT SEVERE, WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TXZ082-102315-
TERRELL TX-
529 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 529 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TERRELL COUNTY GAS PLANT...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF DRYDEN...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRELL COUNTY GAS PLANT.

LAT...LON 3035 10170 3033 10174 3027 10176 3024 10199
      3041 10205 3056 10168 3053 10167 3049 10169
      3047 10169 3046 10170 3047 10173 3044 10172
      3042 10174 3040 10170 3038 10170 3034 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 252DEG 14KT 3035 10194

49