Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The recently advertised cold front was moving thru the PB/SE NM
ahead of schedule and water vapor imagery shows a plume of rich
moisture streaming overhead. Storm have already developed across
parts of the PB and Trans Pecos where temps have increased in the
90s, despite clouds and the front. The early arrival of the front
does change some of the forecast including a focus farther S (along
I-20 and S). Also the earlier arrival does carry over somewhat into
Sat PM as the drier air will arrive earlier. Therefore the window
for rain across the PB/SE NM has decreased from earlier forecast. As
a result we have opted to cancel the watch for SE NM and have
trimmed back the expiration time to 00Z Sun elsewhere, and that
might not be soon enuf? Otherwise we will continue with the likely
PoPs across most areas overnight and high end chance to likely at
least into noon Sat. We are expecting two larger distinct areas of
precip to form, 1. this evening across the PB and then track e, 2.
early Sat AM across the Upper Trans Pecos and then track s or se.
Both of these precip areas are to be aided by a strengthening upper
level jet and assocd increased divergence. Since we have a
narrower window of opportunity for rain we have decreased the
total rainfall amounts into the 1-2" range with locally higher.
Still with abnormally high moisture levels heavy rain and
flooding/flash flooding is a concern thru Sat. High temps will
cool to 85-90 Sat/Sun with lows mostly in the 65-70, and
thereafter highs will climb back to the low to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  88  68  88 /  70  60  20  20
Carlsbad                       69  87  65  89 /  50  50  20  10
Dryden                         76  88  71  90 /  50  60  60  50
Fort Stockton                  70  85  66  85 /  70  70  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  76 /  50  40  30  20
Hobbs                          67  87  64  85 /  70  40  20  10
Marfa                          65  77  62  75 /  50  70  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  66  87 /  60  50  20  20
Odessa                         71  87  67  87 /  60  50  20  20
Wink                           73  89  68  89 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
132 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
132 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 /1232 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS
PECOS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS
PECOS AREAS UNTIL 7 PM. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
108 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

TXZ058-075-121900-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-PECOS TX-
108 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SARAGOSA...OR 27 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOYAH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BALMORHEA...BALMORHEA LAKE...TOYAHVALE...VERHALEN...
BALMORHEA STATE PARK AND SARAGOSA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 207 AND 235.

LAT...LON 3120 10353 3099 10320 3073 10353 3081 10366
      3095 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 127DEG 14KT 3096 10357

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

TXZ061-062-068-122000-
ECTOR-CRANE-MIDLAND-
209 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CRANE...MIDLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN ECTOR COUNTIES...

AT 208 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MIDLAND
INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT...OR NEAR MIDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST MIDLAND...ODESSA...WEST ODESSA...
MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT...
ODESSA SCHELEMEYER FIELD...MISSION DORADO...WARFIELD...
PLEASANT FARMS AND MIDLAND AIRPARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 141.

VERY HEAVY  RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3185 10180 3165 10224 3165 10232 3161 10232
      3155 10246 3186 10258 3208 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 238DEG 27KT 3196 10219

49