Wind Advisory 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

.AVIATION...
LARGELY VFR WITH NRLY WINDS RISING TO 25-30 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING
AREA WIDE. AIRPORT WX WARNING AT LBB MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SUSTAINED
30 KNOTS...BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR VALUES TO FALL
SHORT OF THIS THRESHOLD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY BY SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES CHANGE TO FLURRIES AT THE
TERMINALS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTERSECT THE REGION. SMALL WINDOW STILL EXISTS FOR LOW
CIGS AND LIGHT FOG MAINLY AT CDS NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THIS
IS LOOKING TOO LIMITED IN DURATION FOR AN EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PASSING THE UINTAS THIS AFTERNOON...DESTINED TO
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A MAJOR EAST COAST STORM LATER THIS
WEEK. WE HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW FOR OUR SNOW-BELT
NORTHWEST ZONES AND CANT RULE OUT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN PARMER...CASTRO...AND SWISHER COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS FAVOR AN INCH OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM FEATURES SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL LIFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE.
THE OTHER IMPACT FOR US WILL BE A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT APPEAR
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED BY MID OR
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF KICKING UP SOME DUST AS
WELL. WINDS SHOULD BE TAILING OFF AFTER MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. FEW
OTHER SIGNIFICANT ITEMS...STRAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE THE 50S. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...AS
SURFACE WINDS THERE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL LATER FRIDAY
EVENING UNLIKE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LEE TROF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
WHICH WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. TEMPS WILL WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AS A LEE TROF DEEPENS
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD CREATING GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
25 MPH. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FA BUT WILL BE
MOVING INTO LOW 70S TERRITORY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY BUT WILL STAY
RELATIVELY BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP
FOR THE FA. PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE OK
AND TX PANHANDLE WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
ATTAINED AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET IN BY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SECONDARY YET MORE AMPLIFIED TROF. THE
TROF WILL PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD BY MID WEEK WHILE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT CONTINUING THE PATTERN FOR QUIET WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/14/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

TXZ021>044-212100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
250 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STIFF NORTH WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH AND MAY
REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST ALSO IS EXPECTED.