Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS St. Louis, MO

857 
WWUS53 KLSX 280422
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILC133-163-MOC099-189-280432-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-160428T0445Z/
ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-ST. LOUIS MO-JEFFERSON MO-
1122 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE...SOUTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS AND NORTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3836 8998 3834 9042 3851 9045 3856 9029
      3855 9027 3853 9027 3853 9026 3858 9022
      3865 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 262DEG 21KT 3845 9016 

$$

CARNEY

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.

Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.

The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
428 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
428 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1033 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MAYWOOD             39.95N  91.62W
04/27/2016                   LEWIS              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE JUST WEST OF MAYWOOD ON
            HIGHWAY O. TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER. GRAIN BIN WRAPPED
            AROUND TREES.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1036 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     HAIL             1 NNW GODFREY           38.98N  90.20W
04/27/2016  M1.25 INCH       MADISON            IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1038 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             PAYSON                  39.82N  91.24W
04/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1045 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 PM     HAIL             2 ENE PORTAGE DES SIOUX 38.94N  90.31W
04/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       JERSEY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1049 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             FENTON                  38.54N  90.45W
04/27/2016  M0.88 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIZES RANGED FROM PEAS TO NICKELS. HAIL COVERING THE
            GROUND.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1052 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             1 W ARNOLD              38.43N  90.39W
04/27/2016  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

BYRD