Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Louisville, KY

012 
WGUS73 KLMK 271405
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
905 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

KYC183-271630-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160727T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OHIO KY-
905 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO COUNTY...

AT 901 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MORE THAN THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA. SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORTS INDICATED THAT WATER WAS OVERFLOWING STORM SEWERS IN
HARTFORD. 

WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ENDED...LIGHT RAIN LINGERS AND RUNOFF
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND WATER MAY STILL RISE IN LOW-
LYING AREAS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...FARMLAND...AND OTHER LOW LYING
SPOTS.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 8709 3744 8711 3747 8709 3756 8679
      3734 8679 3733 8682 3731 8682 3721 8690
      3723 8692 3724 8691 3724 8694 3726 8696
      3726 8697 3727 8698 3732 8699 3736 8703
      3737 8707 3733 8711 3734 8714 3735 8713

$$

JBS

475 
WGUS73 KLMK 271456
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
956 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

KYC183-271506-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160727T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OHIO KY-
956 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OHIO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3738 8709 3744 8711 3747 8709 3756 8679
      3734 8679 3733 8682 3731 8682 3721 8690
      3723 8692 3724 8691 3724 8694 3726 8696
      3726 8697 3727 8698 3732 8699 3736 8703
      3737 8707 3733 8711 3734 8714 3735 8713

$$

JBS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
633 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Cluster of thunderstorms continues to move through our far
southeastern counties this morning.  Have been adjusting the
forecast upwards in terms of PoP/QPF/Wx.  Activity has been
backbuilding and training across portions of Monroe and Cumberland
counties where 1-2 inches of rain has fallen per KLVX-88D estimates.
Expect this activity to continue to move northeast over the next 2-3
hours.  Based on recent trends, do not feel it will move much further
north...but slide more eastward toward the Somerset area.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region this
morning.  Temperatures remained rather mild with readings generally
in 70s.  Weak isentropic lift across the southern parts of the
region has been generating some showers across the TN plateau.
Latest high res models suggest that these will lift northward into
southern KY over the next few hours.  So have increased PoPs a bit
across areas south of the Cumberland/Nunn Parkway region.  Some
patchy fog will also be possible through sunrise, though the overall
areal extent will be less than yesterday morning.

For today, generally have kept a persistence type forecast going as
a weak boundary draped across the region will serve as focus for
renewed convective development.  Initial convection will likely be
limited to southern KY early this morning.  Insolation across the
north should allow temperatures to hit their convective temps by
early afternoon resulting in scattered convection.  Flow aloft
remains rather weak, so widespread organized severe convection looks
rather low.  However, plentiful moisture and pockets of instability
will result in storms producing heavy rain/gusty winds/lightning
this afternoon.  Highs look to warm into the upper 80s to around 90.
Convection will likely become more isolated tonight with the setting
sun.  Lows look to cool into the 70s once again.

Well advertised mid-level trough axis will approach the region late
tonight and on Thursday.  This feature combined with plenty of
moisture and instability will result in more widespread convective
development.  Previous forecasts have had this covered, and only
minor increases to cloud cover and PoP were required.  Flow aloft
remains weak, but moisture will continue to increase.  Strong storms
will be possible where pockets of instability can develop during the
day.  Main threat for Thursday will be heavy rainfall and gusty
winds.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given that
precipitable water values will be well over 2 inches within the
column.  Widespread 1/2 to 1 inch rainfall looks likely during the
day with some localized areas of 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches being
possible.  This rainfall may result in some local flooding issues by
the end of the day.  Depending on rainfall today, a Flash Flood
Watch may be required for some areas on Thursday should the heavier
rains materialize.  Temperatures will be below normal on Thursday
with highs generally in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

In the long term period, the upper flow pattern will feature a
western CONUS ridge with a rather large trough axis across the
eastern US.  The latest round of guidance suggests that this eastern
trough axis will likely persist throughout the weekend before
lifting off to the east by early next week.  Ridging looks to build
into the region early next week as a mid-level ridge attempts to
rebuild across the central CONUS.  The ridge will likely struggle as
a fast westerly flow will remain in place across the northern third
of the US.  A stronger signal in the data suggests that heights will
fall again across the eastern US by the end of the week resulting in
the pattern reverting back to a western CONUS ridge and eastern
CONUS trough type pattern as we end next week.

In terms of sensible weather, the persistence of the upper trough
axis across the eastern US will result in a continued unsettled
weather pattern for the Ohio Valley.  Several mid-level perturbations
will move through the region resulting in episodic bouts of showers
and storms...mainly diurnal in nature.  Previous forecasts were a
bit too optimistic on the trough clearing out, so the forecast has
been adjusted to keep shower/storm chances in through at least late
Sunday.  A slightly drier trend looks to develop by Monday and
Tuesday as heights build across the region.  Temperatures through
the period look to remain seasonal for late July and early August.
Daytime highs in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower 70s
still look good through the period.  A more significant cooldown may
be in the offing beyond the current forecast period as the ridge
axis breaks down and shifts back to the western US.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Main TAF challenge will be convective trends this morning into this
afternoon.  Convection has blossomed this morning across southern
KY, but appears as if it will stay out of the BWG area through the
morning hours.  By this afternoon, however, expect scattered
convection to increase and potentially affect any of the three
terminals.  Not confident enough yet in timing or coverage to
include a TEMPO group at any one site, thus will continue with just
VCTS mention at all sites this afternoon.

Convection will wane overnight.  Some light fog will once again be
possible at sites that receive rain today, similar to the past
several nights.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-280800-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
347 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 /247 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED EPISODES OF RAINFALL MAY EXPERIENCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     FLOOD            1 E HESTAND             36.65N 85.59W
07/27/2016                   MONROE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERNON ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

KJD