Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
307 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A weakening frontal boundary draped across southwest Mississippi
and south central Louisiana this afternoon will continue to settle slowly
south into the CWA tonight before becoming stationary across the
area on Monday and then gradually becoming diffuse. This boundary
will continue to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms
on Monday along with the sea and lake breezes. A decaying
mid/upper level weakness over the northwest and central Gulf Coast
region will enhance convection coverage over the next couple of
days as well. Temperatures will average near to just slightly
above normal through the early part of the week. 11

.LONG TERM...
Upper level ridging will build across the southeast conus and
Gulf Coast region during the mid week period. This, along with
slightly drier air, will act to suppress convective coverage
somewhat during this period. A short wave trough traversing the
northern sections of the U.S. will push a backdoor cold front
into the southeast and eastern Gulf Coast states during the latter
half of the work week, but this boundary is expected to stay to
the east and northeast of the local forecast area. The upper level
ridging over the southeast conus will be suppressed late in the
week and an upper trough moving out of the western conus will be
traversing the central U.S. during the course of the weekend. As
the upper trough moves east, an associated cold will be pushed
toward the lower Mississippi Valley late in the weekend and early
next week, resulting in increased rain chances once again.
Temperatures will continue to average near normal during this
period. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail outside convection this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the entire area.
Will keep VCTS wording at all terminals through 00z. After that,
convection will diminish fairly quickly. Patchy fog may develop
toward daybreak at KMCB similar to this morning so a TEMPO group
have been added.

Ansorge/Meffer

&&

.MARINE...
A weak frontal boundary appears to be stalling across south
Louisiana. The surface pressure field is fairly weak but lower
pressure along the trough is causing winds to flow south/southeast
over the coastal waters at generally 10 knots or less. High pressure
centered to the north will deepen as it tracks eastward across the
country through mid week. This will result in increasing easterly
flow over the coastal waters. Nearshore winds should be around 10
knots but offshore waters will see speeds closer to 15 knots which
will bring seas into the 2 to 4 foot range. The pressure gradient
will relax the latter half of this week as the ridge slides east
into the western Atlantic. Winds and seas will follow suit and
decrease.

Meffer

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  90 /  30  50  20  40
BTR  72  91  73  90 /  30  50  20  40
ASD  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  20  50
MSY  77  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  50
GPT  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  50
PQL  74  90  74  90 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-120430-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1120 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.  A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN STRONG AND PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
256 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

LAZ048-112045-
EAST BATON ROUGE LA-
256 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 256 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BATON ROUGE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...PORT ALLEN...OAK HILLS PLACE...MERRYDALE...INNISWOLD...
WESTMINSTER...BROWNFIELDS...VILLAGE ST. GEORGE...
GARDERE AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 9120 3052 9101 3035 9106 3038 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 193DEG 1KT 3044 9115

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
258 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

LAZ061-062-112045-
UPPER JEFFERSON LA-ORLEANS LA-
258 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 258 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM METAIRIE TO MARRERO. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 15
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ORLEANS...HARVEY...MARRERO...AVONDALE...METAIRIE...JEFFERSON...
GRETNA...HARAHAN...WESTWEGO...ELMWOOD...RIVER RIDGE...WAGGAMAN...
ESTELLE...WOODMERE...BRIDGE CITY AND NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2993 9027 3000 9028 3005 9027 3002 9018
      3002 9012 3003 9011 3003 9008 3002 9004
      2978 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 178DEG 11KT 3001 9018 2988 9010

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

LAZ035-MSZ068-069-112045-
WEST FELICIANA LA-AMITE MS-WILKINSON MS-
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 300 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM GLOSTER TO 6 MILES NORTH OF WAKEFIELD. THESE
STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER AND CROSBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 9086 3088 9140 3103 9157 3135 9102
      3134 9099 3135 9098 3135 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 136DEG 2KT 3120 9100 3098 9139