Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
108 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Beginning to look quite a bit like yesterday, although with maybe
a bit more precip over s-cntl LA. Bulk of the convection is again
ongoing over the wrn 1/2 of the forecast area...mainly impacting
the swrn terminals...and expect this trend to continue through
the remainder of daylight hours. However tempo mentions remain all
other sites as well due to the increased coverage from yesterday
over Acadiana/cntl LA zones. Left vicinity mention in longer for
this evening based on how long convection lasted yesterday as area
remains in a very soupy and unstable airmass with little capping
of note in forecast soundings. Thereafter possibly some lower
clouds late tonight otherwise VFR to linger through the period.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

UPDATE...
Abundant moisture will once again be tapped over the western half
of the area as daytime heating begins to kick off the rainfall
later this morning and continuing into the afternoon. Adjusted pops
upwards where HRRR and current radar are beginning to show a
preferred path for rain to develop and move. Highest pops along
and west of Alexandria...Iowa...Grand Chenier...and extending west
into southeast Texas.

Lowered pops across the eastern half of the area...where they
definitely do not need the rain. Raised temperatures as well
across south central Louisiana as cloud cover will not be enough
to stunt rising temperatures.

Looks like the rain train is ready to take off. Get ready
Cameron...Calcasieu...Beaumont. Likely these areas will be the
first stop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

AVIATION...Radar depicting a few streamer showers advancing into
southwest Louisiana from the gulf waters then rapidly dissipating.
Scattered showers and areas of light rain continue over southeast
Texas. Models depicting a rather active shower and thunderstorm
day across the region. This with moisture plentiful incoming from
the gulf. Carrying TEMPO groups at all terminals for SHRA through
the day along with VCTS. Stll anticipating VFR to prevail while
winds remain light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Rains continued to fall across southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana yesterday although south central Louisiana got something
of a break again yesterday. Numerous locations in south central
Louisiana remain in flood and this is expected to continue today.

Currently rains are moving inland around the HOU area while our
next round is approaching the southwest Louisiana and southeast
Texas coast. Rains will move northward with rainfall averages
around one to three inches for se Texas and sw La today. South
central Louisiana looks to pickup an addition 1/2 inch to about an
inch. Not that it is much of a point... but rains have kept the
temperatures in the 80s and this will happen again today.

The frontal boundary to our northwest will begin break down by
tomorrow. This will allow for moisture trapped over the region a
chance to escape northward into the central United States.
Therefore rain chances for everyone will begin to fall with this
pattern continuing into the weekend. We look to be back into a
normal summertime pattern at that time with storm development
mainly during the afternoon hours and temps a bit higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  73  88  74 /  80  40  50  30
LCH  88  75  88  75 /  80  40  60  30
LFT  89  75  88  75 /  50  40  50  20
BPT  87  76  88  76 /  80  40  60  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
170900-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOOKING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND IN URBAN AREAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RAINS LOOK TO BEGIN TAPERING BACK A BIT TOMORROW AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE RAINFALL PATTERN LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-170900-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR STORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF JUST
LIKE THE ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

K. KUYPER