Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term...Today through Saturday
Main forecast issue will be rainfall and flood potential. Numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms continued over southeast and
south central Louisiana this morning.  Most of the heavy rainfall
was east of the forecast area...but moderate to heavy rain was
working into lower Acadiana. Precipitable water values are
abnormally high with LCH 00Z sounding reporting 2.6-2.7 inches. Weak
surface low/trough over southern Mississippi combined with disturbances
rotating around upper high will bring periodic bursts of heavy
rain to the area through Saturday.  Highest amounts are still forecasted
over the lower Acadiana region and central Louisiana.  WPC has these
areas under a moderate to high risk for excessive rain. No changes
to Flash Flood Watch at this time.

.Long Term...Saturday night through Thursday
With weak low shifting west into Texas...will continue trend of
previous forecast in slightly lowering rain chances through early
next week. It also appears that the focus for excessive rainfall may
shift north as frontal boundary stalls over the Southern Plains.
However...models runs are continuing to prog precipitable water
values around 2.5 inches. Therefore will maintain daytime rain
chances in the 40-60 percent range through the rest of the forecast
cycle. Max temperatures are forecasted to be slightly below normal
given projected cloud cover and forecasted rain coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity...no significant marine
issues are forecasted.  Gradient has tightened enough to increase SW
winds to near 15 knots offshore. No plans for SCEC at this time
but will need to monitor through the weekend especially as surface
low shifts west. Surface ridge will work back into the SE U.S.
early next week allowing for weak onshore flow to resume.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  75  84  73 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  90  78  86  77 /  60  80  70  70
LFT  85  76  84  75 /  80  80  70  40
BPT  92  78  88  77 /  30  50  70  70

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-131015-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH VERY RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS LOWER
ACADIANA AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ACADIANA AREA. RESIDENTS
ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE ALERT FOR RISING
WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR THE
SABINE RIVER.

FOR NEXT WEEK...DESPITE DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE...DAYTIME RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-131015-
TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED....BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AVERAGING AROUND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-131015-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT LAKES/BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WATERSPOUTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT LAKES AND BAYS. NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WATERSPOUTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE ARE POSSIBLE.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAFAYETTE               30.22N 92.03W
08/12/2016                   LAFAYETTE          LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS STREET FLOODING SOUTH OF AMBASSADOR
            CAFFERY IN LAFAYETTE

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAFAYETTE               30.22N 92.03W
08/12/2016                   LAFAYETTE          LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DULLES RD IN LAFAYETTE/SCOTT BEGINNING TO FLOOD.

&&

DJONES