Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
937 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.UPDATE...Storm total precip showing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
common across west Louisiana...ramping up to 2 to 5 inches over
southeast Texas. Have issued a flash flood watch for these areas.
Heavy rainfall ongoing across interior southeast Texas. Particularly
concerning to see continued develop to the south and southwest. A
couple of active days ahead. Updated zone package out with watch
included.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 710 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Upper trough continues to slowly edge eastward toward southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana. Outside of showers and thunderstorms
today...vfr conditions likely to be present across the region even
with some showers. However...the airmass remains unstable with lots
of moisture present...therefore... mvfr ceilings could easily
develop for a short time during organized convection. May see some
easing of convection later this evening with loss of daytime heating.
We will likely repeat again for late tonight into tomorrow as the
upper level storm systems continues to trek slowly east into our
area.

DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows the region remaining between high
pressure over the sern CONUS and low pressure over TX...while
water vapor imagery/00z upper air analysis shows mid/upper-level
low located over wrn TX. Result of all this is a very moist
onshore flow through much of the column...with 00z KLCH sounding
showing a juicy PWAT of 1.8 inches and a mean RH of 76 percent.
00z PWAT analysis in fact shows a tongue of enhanced moisture
stretching across the forecast area on up into nern TX this
evening. Local 88Ds show showers and a storm or two beginning to
pop up over our TX zones last hour as this higher moisture
interacts with a low- level convergence zone...while regional 88Ds
show quite a bit of convection to our west associated with
shortwaves rounding the low aloft.

No great changes to inherited forecasts this morning as all signs
continue to point to a wet few days across the forecast area.
Mid/upper-level low is progged to continue making slow progress
ewd across TX into the weekend...with several weak disturbances
expected to round it and pass across the wrn Gulf region. Forecast
soundings show plentiful moisture lingering over the forecast area
with PWAT values eventually topping out just above the 2.0 inch
mark...about 160 percent of normal. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to become widespread by this afternoon as a
result...with convection further fueled by albeit somewhat limited
daytime heating as well as resultant outflows. High POPs then
linger into the weekend as the low approaches...with event total
QPFs looking to average roughly 1.7 inches ern sections to 2.5
inches wrn areas. ATTM not feeling that this is enough rainfall to
warrant Flash Flood Watch issuance...although this will certainly
be monitored over the coming forecast cycles given the likelihood
of localized higher amounts over the next few days.

Troffing over the cntl CONUS and an accompanying sfc front will
push east of the forecast area Sunday into Monday...gradually
bringing rainfall to an end across the area. Ridging aloft over
the wrn CONUS and sfc high pressure will build ewd...maintaining a
drying trend for much of next week.

MARINE...
A light to moderate srly flow will linger through the weekend
before the front pushes through...allowing a light offshore flow
to develop. No flags are anticipated on the coastal waters through
the period ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  70  82  69 /  60  50  70  50
LCH  82  71  82  71 /  70  60  70  60
LFT  86  73  84  72 /  70  50  70  50
BPT  82  71  82  72 /  80  60  80  60

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ027-030-031-
     041-042-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
558 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-031100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
558 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR STREET FLOODING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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