Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS North Platte, NE

256 
WWUS53 KLBF 152346
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
546 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

NEC069-160000-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160416T0000Z/
GARDEN NE-
546 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY...

AT 546 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CRESCENT LAKE
NWR...OR 22 MILES NORTH OF OSHKOSH...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESCENT LAKE NWR...BRITTON LAKE...DEER LAKE...DOGTOWN FLATS...MUMPER...
ADAMS FLATS AND RACKETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 10220 4153 10243 4187 10258 4187 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 171DEG 30KT 4173 10236 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SNIVELY/MASEK

110 
WWUS53 KLBF 152359
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
559 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

NEC069-160008-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160416T0000Z/
GARDEN NE-
559 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4153 10220 4153 10243 4187 10258 4187 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 171DEG 30KT 4173 10236 

$$

SNIVELY/MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING
PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS
NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY
IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC
OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND
ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH
A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY.
AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO
HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT
NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR
300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.

TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A
KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP
PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE
PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB
INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO
THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW
NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE
LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING
PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS... AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT... PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OR STEADY
RAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH WIND SWITCHING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS... PRIMARILY
FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND TERMINALS EAST. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
359 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 /259 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE THIS EVENING... WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT THAN SPANS ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE LIKELY
FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH UP TO SIX INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PINE RIDGE AND
PARTS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED TO SHARE RAINFALL REPORTS.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
451 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

NEZ058-069-152315-
CHASE NE-PERKINS NE-
451 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHASE AND SOUTHWESTERN PERKINS
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

AT 450 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHAMPION...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IMPERIAL...LAMAR...CHAMPION...CRETE...CHASE AND WANAMAKER STATE WILDFIRE
MANAGEMENT AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 58.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4075 10205 4076 10151 4035 10163 4035 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 194DEG 53KT 4030 10185

SNIVELY/MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

NEZ069-160000-
CHASE NE-
527 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHASE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

AT 527 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHAMPION...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IMPERIAL...CHAMPION...ENDERS RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...CRETE...
CHASE...CHURCH GROVE CAMPGROUND...CENTER DAM CAMPGROUND AND WANAMAKER
STATE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 52.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10157 4035 10190 4069 10189 4069 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 197DEG 38KT 4043 10175

SNIVELY/MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

NEZ022-160000-
GARDEN NE-
529 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MDT...

AT 529 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF CRESCENT LAKE NWR...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF OSHKOSH...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESCENT LAKE NWR...BRITTON LAKE...DEER LAKE...DOGTOWN FLATS...MUMPER...
ADAMS FLATS AND RACKETT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4152 10218 4152 10242 4187 10258 4188 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 171DEG 30KT 4159 10233

SNIVELY/MASEK