Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Key West, FL

097 
WWUS52 KKEY 171214
SVSKEY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
714 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

FLC087-171221-
/O.EXP.KKEY.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160117T1215Z/
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE FL-
714 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 715 AM EST...
            
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY. HOWEVER...A SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS AS GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2455 8181 2460 8166 2464 8173 2464 8172
      2460 8162 2462 8163 2462 8162 2461 8161
      2460 8161 2480 8149 2480 8147 2473 8153
      2479 8146 2469 8155 2479 8141 2474 8134
      2474 8133 2464 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1209Z 262DEG 47KT 2485 8207 2440 8225 

$$

KN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE SERVICE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND
ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 25
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A ROBUST SQUALL LINE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. THE 07Z KKEY
SOUNDING CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH IS
USUALLY INDICATIVE OF AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. BOWING SEGMENTS...EMBEDDED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE...ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE WOULD BE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN THE FORECAST AREA SINCE FEBRUARY 21ST...2015.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENTERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
DUE TO FREQUENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING AND WILL DELIVER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE KEYS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TERMINALS SO FAR THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING AS
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER/SEVERE
STORMS. STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. BEHIND THE SQUALLS...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...AND REMAIN GUSTY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN THE YEAR 1983...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53F WAS LAST
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80 62 70 58 / 80 - - -
MARATHON  79 61 70 58 / 80 - - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING.

     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLZ076>078.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
547 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-181100-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BLACKWATER SOUND, BUTTONWOOD SOUND, AND
BARNES SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
547 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
...STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SQUALL LINE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING DUE
TO FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING DUE
TO FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST BEFORE DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATERS LEVELS ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY
REACH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OVERTOPPING OF DOCKS AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING OF THE LOWEST ELEVATION STREETS MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY.