Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
336 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES CLEAR OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES
THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED MOVING OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 70S
AND NEAR 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WINDS HAVE RANGED
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT THE LAND SITES WHILE THE
MARINE STATIONS REPORTED WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SAND KEY AND
PULASKI SHOAL AND LONG KEY AND MOLASSES REEF RANGED 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...
A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WAS THE CAUSED OF THE SHOWERS LAST NIGHT AND THANKS TO ITS
PASSAGE...THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY A PLEASANT EVENING WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 60. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS MIGHT BE ABLE TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG
INVERSION BASED AT 6 KFT WILL AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY...A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ON SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL STRETCH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BY MONDAY IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A NICE BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AVAILABLE MARINE STATIONS. A LOCALIZED AND BRIEF WIND SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS
SURGE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WATER ZONES. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASED DURING THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS AND IS POSSIBLY THAT ANOTHER BRIEF WIND SURGE OCCURS OVER THE
SAME AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 14Z/6TH...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE
THROUGH BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z...HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN A PROB 30 GROUP
INCLUDING BKN030 FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH BROKEN CEILINGS NEAR 035 OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 KNOTS
WILL SLACKEN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  79  69  80 / 30 30 -  -
MARATHON  70  79  68  80 / 30 30 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
606 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-061000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
606 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
TODAY...UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADVISORY MAY
BE LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...DUE TO A WIND
SURGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FLORIDA KEYS WATERS CLOSE
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO ANOTHER WIND SURGE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.