Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Indianapolis, IN

004 
WWUS53 KIND 132005
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INC021-167-132030-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-160713T2030Z/
CLAY IN-VIGO IN-
405 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN VIGO COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TERRE HAUTE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 402 PM...AMATEUR RADIO
         OPERATORS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN TERRE HAUTE.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRE HAUTE...BRAZIL...WEST TERRE HAUTE...SEELYVILLE...
KNIGHTSVILLE...HARMONY...STAUNTON...CARBON...NORTH TERRE HAUTE...
INDIANA STATE UNIVERSITY AND FONTANET.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 28.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 8746 3961 8724 3960 8708 3943 8699
      3940 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 265DEG 19KT 3946 8737 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LEE/TUCEK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
117 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Upper level disturbances will bring chances for rain today and
tonight, then a frontal system will keep rain chances around through
much of the next week. Warm temperatures mid week will cool to below
average to end the week, before returning to seasonable values next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

A couple of upper disturbances will impact the area today. Each of
these will provide enough forcing to interact with an unstable
atmosphere to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.

However, there are uncertainties in timing and effect of cloud cover
on the instability that make pinning down hourly PoPs challenging.

First upper disturbance should generate some scattered convection in
the mid morning into early afternoon time frame. As this is moving
across our area, a second disturbance well to the west should be
generating convection in the midwest moving into the Mississippi
Valley. This convection will approach/move into the western forecast
area late in the afternoon/early evening (approaching 00Z).

Thus tried to time a period of higher PoPs around 18Z or so with a
lowering around 21Z before rising again west. Again there is plenty
of uncertainty with these timings. The uncertainty also precludes
going any higher than chance PoPs today.

Depending on cloud cover, good instability should be able to build
today. Also, the storms that form to the west today could develop
into an MCS that has severe potential as it becomes organized (see
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Discussion). Thus agree with the Storm
Prediction Center's slight risk for most of the area today.

Stayed close to blend of models for high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Focus remains on rain chances through the period.

A cold front will approach the area tonight. This, another upper
disturbance, and the potential of an MCS moving in leads to likely
PoPs across much of the northwest third to half of the area this
evening. Otherwise generally went high end chance PoPs across the
area tonight.

The cold front will move into the area on Thursday. Went chance PoPs
most areas. Models then begin to differ on how fast the front moves
through and how any potential upper disturbances interact with it.
NAM wants to keep rain around longer while GFS dries things out
pretty quickly. GFS looks to be overdoing the punch of cooler air
though so it can't be trusted. Latest ECMWF is leaning toward the
drier side though.

With the uncertainty and not wanting to start a flip-flop trend with
the forecast, decided to stay close to continuity with the previous
forecast for Thursday night into Friday night. This means low PoPs
far south Thursday night, gradually spreading north to all areas by
Friday night.

Went a little cooler than MOS for lows tonight given expected
coverage of rain. Stayed with a blend Thursday. Went closer to the
warmer MET for temperatures Friday since GFS is overdoing influx of
cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Most of the weekend will be dry and a little cooler as high pressure
builds into the great lakes Saturday and then moves to southern New
England by late Sunday.

A stalled frontal system near the Tennessee Kentucky border Saturday
will move towards central Indiana Sunday and then then remain quasi-
stationary across our region through Tuesday.  Most models begin
rain chances late Sunday or Sunday night.  Anyways we can expect a
chance of showers and thunderstorms after the  weekend as a couple
of upper disturbances move our way along this stalled frontal system.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal over the weekend
and near to slightly above early next week.  Stayed close to model
initialized temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 131800z TAFs/...

Issued at 104 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Expect VFR conditions and winds around 10kt except during
thunderstorms.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon becoming
scattered this evening. A strong storm was currently tracking
just southwest of KLAF tied to a weak pressure trough aloft. A
capping inversion aloft has limited storms from developing
elsewhere in central Indiana thus far and should keep the number
of storms isolated for several hours more.

By 132200z expect capping influence to diminish allowing
thunderstorms to become somewhat more numerous...especially near
and north of I70. Meanwhile current Missouri convection will have
lots of instability to feed on and expect those storms to begin
entering Indiana by 140000z-01z and march across TAF sites through
03z-04z. A lull in convection should follow through around 141200z
when cold front approaches the area and renews storm threat again.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
447 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-140900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
447 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
WARM AND HUMID.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING...HEAT INDEX VALUES IN MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

TIMING: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF THE
AREA EVERY DAY BUT SATURDAY. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1229 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ028-035-043-131700-
FOUNTAIN IN-WARREN IN-VERMILLION IN-
1229 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FOUNTAIN...CENTRAL WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1229 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COVINGTON...VEEDERSBURG...ATTICA...CAYUGA...HILLSBORO...KINGMAN...
PERRYSVILLE...NEWTOWN...MELLOTT...WALLACE...FOSTER...GESSIE...
YEDDO AND LODI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 8753 4036 8710 3997 8709 3995 8730
      3995 8742 3994 8743 3993 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 255DEG 48KT 4004 8751

DRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ029-035-036-131745-
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-
103 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN...NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES...

AT 102 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
VEEDERSBURG...OR 17 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAFAYETTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...VEEDERSBURG...SHADELAND...DAYTON...
WAYNETOWN...DARLINGTON...LINDEN...CLARKS HILL...HILLSBORO...
KINGMAN...NEW RICHMOND...WINGATE...NEWTOWN...MELLOTT...
WALLACE AND YEDDO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 162 AND 171.
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 40.

LAT...LON 4004 8671 3997 8727 4014 8737 4047 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 242DEG 49KT 4011 8722

DRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ035-043-131915-
FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-
248 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FOUNTAIN AND
VERMILLION COUNTIES...

AT 248 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GEORGETOWN...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...COVINGTON...NEWPORT...FAIRVIEW PARK...CAYUGA...DANA...
PERRYSVILLE...BLANFORD...GESSIE AND LODI.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4015 8753 4015 8749 4013 8749 4013 8741
      4014 8741 4015 8743 4017 8744 4019 8738
      3995 8739 3995 8742 3993 8743 3993 8741
      3992 8741 3991 8739 3965 8740 3966 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 255DEG 30KT 3996 8772

DRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ035-036-044-131945-
PARKE IN-FOUNTAIN IN-MONTGOMERY IN-
314 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN PARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTH OF ROCKVILLE...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...LADOGA...WAYNETOWN...NEW MARKET...KINGMAN...
WAVELAND...BLOOMINGDALE...MARSHALL...WALLACE...ALAMO...JUDSON...
TURKEY RUN STATE PARK...SHADES STATE PARK AND YEDDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 8683 3989 8670 3986 8684 3987 8701
      3983 8701 3979 8722 3998 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 240DEG 26KT 3990 8722

LEE/TUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
357 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 N ROCKVILLE          39.94N  87.23W
07/13/2016                   PARKE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED NEAR US41 NEAR THE PARKE FOUNTAIN COUNTY
            LINE.

&&

DRT