Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Wilmington, OH

416 
WGUS71 KILN 282256
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KYC081-187-282306-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-160828T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT KY-OWEN KY-
656 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN
OWEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3836 8487 3837 8489 3839 8490 3842 8488
      3843 8493 3845 8491 3846 8492 3845 8494
      3843 8494 3845 8496 3847 8495 3859 8454
      3851 8448 3851 8452 3849 8456 3837 8471
      3834 8479

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
351 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass will remain in place today and
Monday. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected
Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. The
next chance for thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the
approach of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Atmosphere continues to be very warm, moist and unstable across
the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms have already begun to develop
across southern Ohio/portions of northern Kentucky early this
afternoon. Somewhat more organized convection has also developed
across northwest Ohio/northern Indiana closer to a weakening cold
front and mid level shortwave.

Given the environment, more pop up showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the afternoon. Based on radar trends, will focus
highest pops across the far southern portion of the CWA initially
then later this afternoon/early evening additional convective activity
may develop and affect more of the CWA. This solution is more in
line with recent runs of the HRRR.

High preciptable waters will support heavy rainfall in the strongest
storms. Some of the storms especially over southern Ohio/northern
Kentucky will also exhibit slow movement. Therefore there is the
potential for heavy rainfall to result in minor flooding issues.

In addition, while shear is forecast to be weak there will likely
be sufficient instability (CAPE aoa 2500 J/kg) for the strongest
storms to produce gusty or even locally damaging wind gusts.

After sunset, much of the activity is expected to dissipate given
the large influence daytime heating will have on thunderstorm
development/maintenance.

Expect another muggy night with dewpoints remaining in the upper
60s to lower 70s. There may be a fair amount of lingering mid
clouds overnight which would inhibit fog formation, but can't
rule out patchy fog forming in fog-prone areas late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Initial frontal boundary to the north looks to wash out Monday,
but models suggest that weak high pressure and lower precipitable
water values will try to move down at least in central/west-
central Ohio later in the day. This may keep that area dry on
Monday, however sufficient moisture along with afternoon
instability will likely support convective development Monday
afternoon further south into Ohio/northern Kentucky. Locally heavy
rainfall could once again be a risk with the strongest storms.

Lower precipitable waters and a bubble of high pressure press
further south Monday night into Tuesday. Therefore, have
continued with a dry forecast during this time. A cold front will
approach late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will push into the region at the beginning of the period.
Forcing appears weak and moisture limited...but still included a
chance of storms across northern counties.

High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and
continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The high
will continue extend into the forecast area through the weekend.
This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop closer to
normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period with the exception of
mvfr br at kluk in the 10-12z timeframe. The sites least likely to
see thunderstorm activity this afternoon are KILN/KDAY...with
scattered thunderstorms expected across the KCMH/KLCK and then
across the KCVG/KLUK locations from especially 20-00z. Winds very
light through the period generally from the NE...with otherwise no
flight impacts outside of thunderstorms and short lived BR.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ073-077>082-
     088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JDR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-077>082-088-290900-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
ISOLATED STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP...WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
074-290900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HOCKING-
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...WITH
SOME ISOLATED STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE HAMILTON           39.46N 84.48W
08/27/2016                   BUTLER             OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

&&

JGIBSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KYZ100-OHZ081-088-281915-
LEWIS KY-SCIOTO OH-ADAMS OH-
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LEWIS...
SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VANCEBURG.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARRISON...FRIENDSHIP...TANNERY...SANDY SPRINGS...
BUENA VISTA IN SCIOTO COUNTY...TURKEY CREEK LAKE AND SAINT PAUL.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3853 8321 3866 8337 3879 8323 3872 8303
      3871 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 223DEG 2KT 3865 8323

JDR