Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Wilmington, OH

657 
WGUS71 KILN 192017
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

OHC141-192026-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-160819T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROSS OH-
417 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ROSS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3936 8284 3936 8310 3947 8317 3948 8300
      3948 8292

$$

HAINES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly typical summertime conditions will continue across the
region into Saturday. A cold front will push through the area Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Cooler and drier weather will then move
in for the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low clouds and some fog are hanging in across all but our far
northern tier of counties so far this morning. These low clouds
should gradually burn off/lift up into a cu field as we progress
through late morning and into this afternoon. We will destabilize
through the afternoon hours as we warm into the lower to mid 80s.
However, we mainly remain between the northern and southern
systems today with not much in the way of large scale forcing
through the afternoon hours across our area. That being said, the
latest hrrr is trying to suggest that perhaps a remnant outflow
boundary from last night's convection off to our northwest may
drift down into our area through this afternoon. This could serve
as a focus for some isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
and will continue with lower chance pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High resolution/convection allowing models indicate that any
showers/storms lingering into the evening hours should dissipate
before midnight with mainly partly cloudy for the overnight hours.
Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

Have used a blend of the 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF for the short term
forecast. This offers a middle of the road solution in terms of
strength and timing of surface and mid level synoptic systems. The
CMC appeared too strong while the NAM-WRF was not only too strong
but much slower.

For Saturday into Saturday night, mid level short wave energy will
carve out a mid level trough across the northern and central
Plains. In response, return moist flow out ahead of an
approaching cold front will combined with diurnal instability and
low level frontal convergence to bring an increasing likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms to the region, with the highest chance
expected Saturday evening and overnight. A few strong to severe
storms may occur late Saturday afternoon and evening across the
western zones as shear/instability will be the greatest in tandem.
Some locally heavy rain will also be possible given high pwats
around 2 inches. Thunderstorms will have some movement so
flooding concerns should be low.

For Sunday,  mid level trough will move east across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. This process will push the cold front east
of the region. The threat for precipitation will come to an end
across our east Sunday morning, followed by partly cloudy skies
for all locations. Drier and cooler air is expected with highs
mainly in the 70s.

By Sunday night, mid level trough will be moving off to the east,
allowing surface high pressure to build into the Ohio Valley.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will be in the 50s.

High pressure will remain over the region on Monday, providing
mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift off to the east through mid week
as a mid level ridge moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Dry weather is expected with temperatures eventually warming back
into the lower to mid 80s.

Another system will approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday
allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We are starting to see some isolated shower and thunderstorm development
along differential heating boundaries left over from the decaying
stratus earlier this morning. Forcing is fairly weak through the
rest of the afternoon, but as we continue to destabilize, expect
to see a bit more of an uptick in pcpn coverage. Will cover the
threat with a vcsh as it should remain rather spotty, but an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible through the afternoon at
any/all of the TAF sites.

The showers and thunderstorm activity will dissipate this evening
as we lose the diurnal heating, leaving mainly clear skies as we
head into the overnight. However, the models are once again
suggesting some low cloud and fog development later tonight into
early Saturday morning. The best chance for this appears to be at
the western TAF sites so will hit them a little harder with some
IFR cigs developing. Low clouds and fog should then slowly
lift/dissipate as we progress through the late morning hours.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
949 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070-071-077-201000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-HARDIN-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-HAMILTON-
949 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ094>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-072>074-078>082-088-201000-
OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-CLINTON-
ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
949 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.