Wind Advisory 18, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

747 
WWUS72 KGSP 111918
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

NCZ051-052-058-059-120400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.161211T2300Z-161212T1700Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...TUCKASEGEE
218 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST MONDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN GRAHAM...SWAIN... 
  HAYWOOD...AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  THIS EVENING...MAXIMIZE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH
  THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

301 
WWUS72 KGSP 120325
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

NCZ051-052-058-059-121200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-161212T1700Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...TUCKASEGEE
1025 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN GRAHAM...SWAIN... 
  HAYWOOD...AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
  EVENING...MAXIMIZE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE
  MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

CDG

689 
WWUS72 KGSP 121027
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

NCZ051-052-058-059-121700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-161212T1700Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...TUCKASEGEE
527 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN GRAHAM...SWAIN... 
  HAYWOOD...AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY THROUGH MID
  MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

051 
WWUS72 KGSP 121444
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016


NCZ051-052-058-059-121545-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-161212T1700Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
944 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT
OVERALL WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. SO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure moves off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday as
another cold front crosses the Plains states.  This front will cross
the region Monday, with precip chances lasting into mid-week.
Another blast of cold air will settle across our area during the
latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM, low clouds associated with moisture surge had already
pushed into the lower SC Piedmont. This is a couple of hours faster
than previously anticipated, and the sky cover forecast has been
increased across much of the Upstate and northeast GA through the
morning. This also necessitated some downward adjustments to max
temps to the lower 40s across these areas. (And even this may prove
to be too warm).

Otherwise, surface high pressure will continue to migrate off the
Mid-Atlantic coast through the period, while cool/dry air
circulating around the high will maintain an inverted ridge east of
the Appalachians through the period. Meanwhile, falling upper
heights responding to a short wave trough digging into the northern
Great Plains will result in increasing S/SW flow above this cool/dry
ridge later today, with a wall of low level moisture expected to
advect across the remainder of the forecast area through the
afternoon. Isentropic lift/warm advection will be quite strong btw
~925 mb and ~800 mb throughout the period. In fact, forecast
soundings depict H8 temps warming from near freezing this morning,
to +10 C by 12Z Monday. While low level lift will be substantial,
resulting in a nearly saturated layer up to roughly 800 mb, thermo
profiles dry out completely above about 0 C, which would argue
against generation of large hydrometeors. In other words, profiles
argue more for a drizzle situation than a -RA scenario, despite the
fact that most deterministic models do squeeze out some light QPF
from this afternoon through the end of the period. That being the
case, opted to advertise small chances for measurable precip, while
adding "areas of drizzle" to the forecast suite from the Blue Ridge
east.

The result of the thick low level cloud cover and drizzle/patchy -RA
should be establishment of in situ cold air damming this afternoon
through tonight, as the surface layer will remain very cool and dry.
Forecast highs will be reached in most areas around noon, with temps
steady or falling slightly during the afternoon. There is a concern
regarding the potential for freezing drizzle or very light rain
along the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, mainly across the
northern mtns and foothills from late afternoon into the evening.
Surface wet bulbs will likely remain below freezing in those areas
through the day, so it's not out of the question that some locations
could wet bulb down to sub-freezing if enough light precip develops.
However, it's highly questionable as to whether precip will be heavy
and/or persistent enough for that to happen. In fact, it's not
entirely a given that drizzle/-RA will develop in those areas at all.
Although patchy -FZDZ was added to the forecast in those areas, we
certainly do not have confidence to do anything with this but to add
a mention to the HWO.

Chances for light precip are expected to gradually diminish in most
areas this evening, as the strongest isentropic lift shifts
northeast of the area. However, -DZ will remain possible from the
Blue Ridge east within residual wedge air mass. After midnight,
shower chances will increase across the western zones, as a
weakening cold front approaches from the TN Valley. Temps are
expected to warm slowly through the night as the wedge gradually
weakens. H8 winds increase to 50-60 kts across the southern
Appalachians beginning this evening. However, forecast soundings
depict stable air in the valleys, so it's highly unlikely that any
of this higher momentum will mix down. However, the exposed peaks
and ridge tops above 4kft or so will certainly be very windy, likely
gusting in excess of 50 mph at times. This also warrants an HWO
mention.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday: Monday, the cold front will slowly slide
across KY and TN, with a large band of moisture spreading across the
southern Appalachian region. H85 winds ahead of the front are
forecast to peak around 50 kts during the early sunlight hours on
Monday. Forecast soundings indicate that the pre frontal environment
will feature a very strong low level inversion, with temperature
differences from the sfc to 2kft ranging close to 10C. The strong
inversion should isolate the strong llvl winds from reaching
elevations below 2500 ft. I will indicate gusts around 50 kts across
the mtn. ridges early Monday morning. Short range guidance indicates
that temps will begin to warm across the high terrain before sunrise
Monday. Using a blend of temp guidance, highs on Monday are forecast
to range from the low to mid 50s across the mtns to the around 60
across the Lakelands. I will time a band of moderate to light SHRA
to sweep across the forecast area primarily Monday morning. Coverage
will remain the greatest over the TN border counties, then should
gradually erode as the band moves into the lee of the mtns.

Monday night, the GFS continues to indicate that the cold front will
generally push south of the forecast area by 12z Tues. However, the
ECMWF and NAM indicate that the front will stall along the
southern tier, then may begin to lift north as a warm front as a
frontal wave develops over MS. I will continue to use a blend of the
short range solutions, favoring the wetter solutions, holding on to clouds
and CHC to SCHC PoPs. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s should
support only a chilly light rain. A few pockets of wet snow may mix
with the rain over the ridges of the northern NC mtns during the pre
dawn hours, no accums.

Tuesday, conditions across the CWA will remain unsettled as the old
front remains across the central and east Carolinas and another cold front
approaches from the west. The path of the frontal wave should remain
generally east of the forecast area, possibly south of the I-20
corridor. I will indicate that PoPs will range from high CHC across
the lower Piedmont to SCHC across the I-40 corridor by the
afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range very close to the
mild values expected for Monday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, deja vu as the Monday night into
Tuesday features. However, the sfc front will likely not slow or
stall until reaching the Deep South. The path of the frontal wave
should occur further south as well, yielding less QPF than the
Monday night and Tuesday event. Temperatures should range 3-5
degrees cooler, especially over the mtns.

Wednesday night, guidance indicates that the core of an arctic
airmass will build over the Great Plains, with sfc pressure rising
across the CWA through the night. Winds will remain out of the NW,
advecting cold H85 temps across the region. CAA should drop H85
temps from 2C across the TN border of the NC NRN mtns at 0Z Thurs to
-12C by 12z Thurs. Gusty NW winds and limited moisture may support a
few weak NWFS showers, but remaining SCHC. Low temps should easily
fall into the teens across the NRN NC mtns to mid 20s within the mtn
valleys, low to mid 30s should be common along and east of I-85. Dry
and clearing east of the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday: The medium range picks up Thursday morning
with surface high pressure building into the southeast and an upper
longwave trough swinging through the eastern CONUS. A few light snow
showers over the NE GA high terrain will taper off through daybreak
Thursday, with the entire area drying out briefly during the day on
Thursday and into Thursday night.

This is where the interesting section of the forecast commences. A
CAD event will begin to take shape during the day on Friday, though
whether it will be a "Classic" onset (ECMWF) or "hybrid/in-situ"
event (GFS) remains to be seen. Guidance has been in poor agreement
over the last few days on some details related to this system, and
the current forecast cycle is no exception. The main discrepancy is
the amount of moisture available for overrunning associated with a
"Miller B" style low ejecting over the Midwest, and when that
moisture arrives in our area. The ECMWF remains the wetter solution
with moisture arriving earlier (overnight Friday), while the GFS is
basically dry for our region until Saturday morning. The ECMWF
solution would therefore present a longer period over which non-
liquid precip may fall across the area, while the GFS version would
have a much smaller window in which to produce frozen precip before
the transition to all rain takes place. This forecast takes the
middle ground between the two as far as pops/QPF through Saturday
morning, so it includes a fairly short window of rain/wintry mix
before daybreak Saturday before changing to all rain outside of the
mountains, while the higher terrain hangs on to frozen precip for a
few extra hours before a transition to all liquid occurs by noon on
Saturday. Profile and surface temperatures are marginal for most of
this event as well, so p-type early Saturday morning is still a
mixed bag. The key message remains that this forecast is still quite
low-confidence, and that much could change regarding the amount and
type of precip Friday night and Saturday morning.

The balance of the medium range then becomes surprisingly
straightforward, as widespread showers/rain ahead of the main cold
front will continue through Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
Temperatures will be below average Thursday and Friday (the coolest
day), and near average on Saturday as the area comes under the
influence of substantial WAA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A very moist low level air mass will push
into the area from the south this morning into early afternoon, and
this is expected to result in initially low VFR cigs overspreading
the forecast area, becoming MVFR during early/mid afternoon.
Additionally, raw model output is producing precip across much of
the area this afternoon into evening. However, based upon vertical
profiles, it appears to be more of a drizzle scenario, and -DZ will
be maintained in the terminal forecasts, as cigs fall through MVFR
to the 010-020 range during the evening, with most sites expected to
see IFR by the end of the period. Visby may also begin to
deteriorate during the evening, although this will depend largely
upon the intensity of any DZ/-RA. MVFR should suffice for the time
being. Winds will remain light, but generally favor a light SE
direction this morning, possibly becoming light NE during the
afternoon and evening. Light winds persist within cool surface wedge
overnight, but accelerate aloft, and this is expected to result in
LLWS of 35-40 kts at most terminals by the end of the period.

Outlook: Restrictions and light precip will remain possible late
Sunday night into Monday as a weakening cold front crosses the area.
Conditions could remain unsettled through much of the week as the
front stalls just to the south of the area and moisture returns.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     Med   66%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     Med   66%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     Med   65%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-121100-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
549 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. WIND
GUSTS MAY RANGE AROUND 50 MPH AT TIME ABOVE 4000 FEET ELEVATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-121100-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
549 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
DAY MONDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY RANGE AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES ABOVE 4000
FEET ELEVATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>014-019-121100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
549 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.