Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

833 
WWUS83 KGLD 030003
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

COZ253-254-KSZ027-030115-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160103T0000Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE-
503 PM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027...253
AND 254...

AFTER SUNSET...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGER RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO MONTANA. DESPITE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE PROFILES FROM KLBF
TO KDDC...SHOWING QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASSES WITH HUMIDITY
PROFILES INCREASING TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE NEARING RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS AROUND BURLINGTON AND MAY HOLD FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO IN A SMALL AREA ALONG KS-CO BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE AREA...LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WX EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER OR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH DRY POCKET OF AIR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA AM A LITTLE LEARY IN KEEPING THINGS WARM IN
THAT AREA. OVERALL...TEMPS IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE WEST ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM
THE EAST AND AN INCREASING CIRRUS DECK WILL LIMIT FULL SURFACE
HEATING. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER SO DO NOT EXPECT A
RECURRING FIRE DANGER RISK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. INITIALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN TUESDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A
COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
FIRST TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BETWEEN
850 MB AND 700 MB LIKELY PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE SERIES ARRIVES THURSDAY. THIS ONE MAY
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES...A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SPIN UP AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS
WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST. AS OF RIGHT NOW...
TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS FRONT
IS DELAYED...A COLD RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THAT A DRY AIR INTRUSION SHOULD BE REALIZED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WOULD OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. WITHIN THIS DRIER AIR...REDUCED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. DUE TO THE
QUICKER NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON CURRENT
INDICATIONS.

BEYOND FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY QUITE HIGH. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
PLOT LOOKS...IN FACT...LIKE A BOWL OF SPAGHETTI. THERE IS NOT A
DISTINCT SOLUTION OR PAIR OF SOLUTIONS...JUST A CHAOTIC MESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER...OR IF ONE WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
904 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031615-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
904 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 /1004 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SOUTH OF A JOES COLORADO TO LEOTI KANSAS
LINE WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOOR
BURNING IS PLANNED...USE EXTRA CAUTION AS FIRES MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.