Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

723 
WWUS53 KFSD 172208
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNC081-172230-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-160617T2230Z/
LINCOLN MN-
508 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 507 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IVANHOE...OR
21 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4455 9609 4454 9608 4440 9608 4436 9645
      4463 9645 4463 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 329DEG 17KT 4450 9621 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHUMACHER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
307 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

A reinforced outflow boundary and front extends from Lake Andes
to Brookings and then into central Minnesota at 2000 UTC. Very
unstable air was located along and south of this boundary with
MLCAPEs on the latest SPC mesoanalysis from 4000-5500 J/kg. South
of the boundary the atmosphere remains capped but focused
mesoscale lift along the boundary has already resulted in a few
weak cells developing north of Highway 14. With continued
heating, surface convergence, and pooling of moisture, expect that
additional storm development will occur between 3 pm and 6 pm. The
experimental HRRR supports this scenario as does the Hi-res ARW
and NMM.

Shear is rather low - only 20 kts in the 0 to 6 km layer - so
supercells are not a threat. The extreme instability may support 1
to 1.5 inch hail during the evening. Of greater concern is the
wind. SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg which is
indicative of downdrafts that could support severe winds even as
outflow boundaries move away from the parent storm. The
experimental HRRR has been consistently showing wind gusts well in
excess of 50 kts with storms this evening and see no reason why
this is not possible - especially north of I-90. A bigger question
is if new convection will be able to develop along the southern
flank of any outflow boundaries given the strong cap. CAMs do show
this happening through 03Z or 04Z after which cooling at the
surface should stabilize the atmosphere enough to limit
development. So the greatest risk for severe weather will be in
southwest Minnesota and southeast South Dakota. There is also a
risk of separate development in north central Nebraska and south
central South Dakota as a weak upper wave approaches. These storms
will also pose a threat for damaging winds although less than
areas to the northeast.

Saturday looks to continue the general slow drying process, with
lingering morning scattered showers and storms decreasing from
southwest to northeast. While several models still try to generate
afternoon convection, the environment looks much less favorable
than today and will go for pops below mention levels for Saturday
afternoon. Heat and humidity levels also look just a tad more
tolerable in the different environment, so a heat advisory does
not seem needed at this time. Will keep the prospect of a mostly
sunny afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

For the Saturday night through Monday, the main concern will be the
heat and chances for thunderstorms and severe weather on Sunday and
Sunday night. On Saturday night, the cap is expected to become
reestablished and do not expect any convection. However, the
strengthening low level southerly flow will keep winds above 10 mph
much of the night. The winds may will help keep the surface layer
somewhat mixed and will mean lows in the 70s across the area and
could see record high minimum temperatures.

For Sunday, all models except the GFS have slowed the progression of
the front. As mentioned in previous discussion, the prefrontal air
mass is well capped and with 925 mb temperatures at or above 30 C in
most areas, temperatures will warm well into the 90s. The winds may
turn SSW during the afternoon and this likely will keep dew points
closer to 70 instead of the mid to upper 70s of today. Nonetheless,
with temperatures in the 90s and dew points around 70, the heat
index will rise above 100 in much of southeast SD as well as
portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa.  By late
afternoon, the front will be approaching Hwy 14. While there may be
a storm near the boundary, it will mostly likely be post-frontal and
remain north of highway 14 through 00Z Monday so only care a slight
chance in the late afternoon near Huron and Brookings.  However, at
least a few storms should develop east of I-29 during the evening and
move southeast behind the front through southwestern Minnesota and
into northwestern Iowa after midnight.  The question is how far west
into South Dakota the storms will go.  The forcing for ascent
weakens and the cap remains fairly strong so while we have some
chance for storms across the entire forecast area, the best chance
really seems to be closer to I29.  As for severe weather, as with
today, instability will be very high with MLCAPEs well above 2000
J/kg and likely greater than 3000 J/kg.  Also, the post frontal
environmental has the 0-6 km bulk shear from 35-45 kts. If storms
can be rooted in the near surface layer that would support
supercells initially although cell interaction and the presence of
the front will likely mean storms become linear sometime during
Sunday night. The severe threat at this time looks to be from very
late afternoon through late evening before the boundary layer
stabilizes.  if supercells can form, large hail and damaging winds
would both be a threat.

On Monday, the front will continue to move to the south with a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing across primarily from
northwestern Iowa and adjacent areas of South Dakota and Nebraska.
With the more clouds, especially south of I-90, and cooler air
moving in, high temperatures will be much cooler in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Because of the potential of convection to develop by 4 pm, did not
make any changes to the forecast from Monday night through Thursday.
All models agree that temperatures will be near or above
normal through Tuesday or Wednesday.  But differences continue late
in the week with the ECMWF much warmer than GFS by Thursday.  Do
show highs warming well into the 80s to around 90 by that time.
There does not appear to be any strong focus for rainfall through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Generally VFR with some ceilings 3-4k feet north of Interstate 90
this afternoon behind the boundary moving into the area. Otherwise
scattered TSRA will develop after 20z and will likely become
numerous near the BKX to FSD area before 18/00z. Scattered TSRA
will continue after 17/00z but slowly decrease through 17/12z.
TSRA should become isolated and confined to the area northeast of
FSD after 17/12z. Brief and local mvfr conditions and strong gusts
in thunderstorms.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038-039-052>055-
     058>071.

MN...None.
IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ020-031.

NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Schumacher
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

IAZ020-031-NEZ013-014-SDZ039-054-055-060>062-065>071-181715-
PLYMOUTH-WOODBURY-DIXON-DAKOTA-KINGSBURY-MINER-LAKE-HANSON-MCCOOK-
MINNEHAHA-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-
UNION-
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO THE START OF THIS EVENING WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH
GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH SOME CHANCE OF LARGE
HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SDZ038-052-053-058-059-063-064-181715-
BEADLE-JERAULD-SANBORN-AURORA-DAVISON-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO THE START OF THIS EVENING WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPINGTHIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING GUSTS TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ001>003-012>014-021-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ040-
056-181715-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-CHEROKEE-
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-
ROCK-BROOKINGS-MOODY-
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS
EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
WITH SOME CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IAZ022-032-181715-
BUENA VISTA-IDA-
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING GUSTS TO 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SDZ050-057-181715-
GREGORY-BRULE-
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING GUSTS TO 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.