Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Still looking at a wet period going into the week. Low pressure over
north FL may move little during the short term. This combined with
the very moist tropical airmass...precipitable water values near 2.3
inches for most of the area...could possibly give widespread showers
and thunderstorms with a roughly diurnal pattern. For now...not
issuing a flash flood watch. Have continued with likely pops for
Monday and solid chance for overnight periods. For now...not issuing
a flash flood watch. Path of FL low will affect rainfall totals
across the area and at this time the evolution of the low is
uncertain. Refer to the current Hydrologic Outlook statement. This
potential heavy rain situation will be closely monitored for any
changes.

41

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
A wet unsettled period is expected to continue.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The broad low pressure system centered just west of the CWA should
stagnate through the vast majority of the fcst period allowing for
an abnormally moist and tropical airmass with PWATs in 2.2-2.4
inch range each day. Main threat with this regime will be an
elevated risk of flooding due to highly efficient precip. See
hydrology section below for more details. Have also issued a
Hydrologic Outlook accordingly.

Aside from the flood threat from expected rounds of showers and
thunderstorms...hydrometeor loading aiding any downdrafts will
also pose a threat for wet microbursts and strong to damaging
winds. Even showers could generate decent sfc outflow winds.
Overall...have gone with likely pops nearly each day and chance
overnight...while the only sign of a shift in the environment
looks to be near Saturday when guidance indicates a more westward
progression and dampening of the low.

Temps should be similar each day with below normal highs and above
normal lows given the aforementioned environment and ample diurnal
cloud coverage/precip development.

Baker

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
An abnormally moist and tropical airmass will persist through the
upcoming week allowing for expected rounds of showers and
thunderstorms each day. Resultant storm total rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected with locally higher amounts possible across
portions of north and central Georgia. Despite the current drought
conditions across the area...such amounts and locally heavy
downbursts from any isolated shower or thunderstorm could pose a
flood threat in both rural or urban areas...including runoff
affecting stream flow in creeks and rivers. A Hydrologic Outlook
has been issued accordingly for the enhanced risk of flooding.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
Convection will continue to develop across the taf sites this
afternoon and last into the evening. Stratus expected to move into
the area from the east after 08z tonight. Should be mainly mvfr
with some potential for ifr. Winds variable to mostly west this
afternoon and evening...becoming east after 00z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on winds. medium to high on remaining elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  87  73  86 /  60  60  50  70
Atlanta         75  88  74  86 /  60  60  50  70
Blairsville     70  84  69  83 /  60  60  50  60
Cartersville    73  89  74  88 /  60  60  50  60
Columbus        76  92  74  88 /  60  60  50  70
Gainesville     73  87  72  84 /  60  60  50  60
Macon           75  91  74  87 /  40  70  50  70
Rome            74  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  70
Peachtree City  73  88  73  86 /  60  60  50  70
Vidalia         75  89  74  87 /  20  70  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-85. THE STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVING SO HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE ABNORMALLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THE ENHANCED RISK OF
FLOODING GIVEN THIS AIRMASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF ANY DAMAGE OR
FLOODING THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ007-072215-
GILMER GA-
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 543 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ELLIJAY...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
           REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
           TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
           DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY
           STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS.
           WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
           DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ELLIJAY...EAST
ELLIJAY...TAILS CREEK...MOUNTAINTOWN...TALONA...CARTECAY... CHERRY
LOG AND ROY.

LAT...LON 3481 8432 3456 8437 3455 8437 3463 8463
      3480 8459 3481 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 279DEG 6KT 3471 8453

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ005-072230-
MURRAY GA-
607 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MURRAY COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...

AT 606 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CHATSWORTH. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
           REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
           TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
           DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY
           STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS.
           WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
           DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DALTON...CHATSWORTH...CARTERS...NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...RAMHURST AND
FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3481 8480 3473 8465 3462 8465 3458 8467
      3460 8473 3461 8473 3461 8472 3462 8472
      3462 8474 3461 8475 3462 8490 3467 8494
      3468 8494 3467 8489 3470 8493 3471 8492
      3471 8487 3473 8487 3474 8485 3476 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 033DEG 4KT 3470 8476

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ030-072300-
POLK GA-
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CEDARTOWN...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
           REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
           TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
           DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY
           STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS.
           WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
           DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CEDARTOWN...ETNA AND ESOM HILL.

LAT...LON 3406 8540 3404 8518 3390 8516 3391 8521
      3390 8522 3390 8538 3391 8539 3403 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 005DEG 7KT 3398 8530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ007-072300-
GILMER GA-
633 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ELLIJAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
           REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
           TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
           DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY
           STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS.
           WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
           DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ELLIJAY...EAST
ELLIJAY...ROY...TAILS CREEK...MOUNTAINTOWN...CARTECAY AND CHERRY LOG.

LAT...LON 3484 8440 3484 8437 3483 8436 3482 8433
      3481 8433 3480 8431 3478 8430 3459 8432
      3467 8463 3486 8452 3486 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 017DEG 7KT 3479 8443

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
703 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ030-072330-
POLK GA-
703 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ARAGON...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF CEDARTOWN...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
           REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
           TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
           DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY
           STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS.
           WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
           DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CEDARTOWN...ROCKMART...ARAGON...FISH CREEK...VAN WERT...ANTIOCH AND
SENEY.

LAT...LON 3410 8520 3410 8516 3409 8516 3408 8515
      3409 8512 3404 8499 3395 8501 3395 8505
      3391 8505 3391 8521 3390 8522 3390 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 020DEG 8KT 3401 8513

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ006-080000-
FANNIN GA-
727 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM EDT...

AT 727 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MORGANTON...OR NEAR
BLUE RIDGE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
           REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
           TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
           DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY
           STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS.
           WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
           DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUE
RIDGE...MORGANTON...LOVING...DIAL...HURST...MINERAL BLUFF AND HEMP.

LAT...LON 3490 8412 3489 8411 3487 8411 3484 8415
      3481 8414 3470 8419 3475 8427 3480 8431
      3481 8433 3482 8433 3483 8436 3484 8437
      3484 8440 3486 8442 3486 8446 3499 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 033DEG 4KT 3489 8425