Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1047 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016

...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LINE MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA...

.UPDATE...
SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE AHEAD OF DECENTLY
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO WEST PORTIONS OF CWA WITH
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. SHEAR ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING ROBUST 0-1KM SRH
PRESENT SO A GOOD HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SITUATION. MAINLY GETTING
DECENT HAIL OUT OF THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THEN WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION HERE SHORTLY TO A DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT ALONG MORE ORGANIZED LINE. EVOLUTION COULD LINGER
INTO FARTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT HERE SO WILL KEEP
CLOSE MONITOR ON TRENDS. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE SEVERE MENTION IN
WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE POP TREND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS PUSHING INTO PARTS OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. SPC IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LAGRANGE TO CUMMING TO BLUE RIDGE LINE... AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK THROUGH THE EVENING AS
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS INSTABILITIES AND
BEST FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT... SO THE SEVERE
STORM RISK SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS STORMS PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS... AND BEST TIMING WILL BE
BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH ALL THIS SAID... REMEMBER ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT... SO ALL
INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID THURSDAY MORNING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS AND A COOL... GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ON TAP FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE NORTH GA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR NORTH GA. AT THIS TIME... THE WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD THURSDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH GA...
SO NO WINTRY THREAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER FORECAST. IF ANYTHING
WINTRY WAS TO DEVELOP... IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...
AND IF ANY... IT WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE... HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL OVER THE WEEKEND THEN WARM UP INTO NEXT
WEEK. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY TUESDAY WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA /MONDAY-TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY-
FRIDAY/. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016/ ...

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK WARM ENOUGH IN
THE NORTHEAST TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. AFTER THAT...THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HOLD BACK THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE CLOSER
TO THE MS RIVER. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY AREA. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE SHOULD
LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS TO IMPINGE
UPON KATL AND NEARBY SITES AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH VCSH AHEAD...THEN
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR OTHER SITES ACCORDING TO
PROGRESSION. POSSIBLE CIGS COULD GET BELOW MVFR LEVEL THOUGH NOT
CONFIDENT. WINDS INITIALLY SSE FOR KATL WITH EXPECTED SHIFT SSW
MAINLY AFTER 02Z WITH MAGNITUDES 12 KTS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER WITHIN TEMPO FOR -TSRA /OTHER SITES WITH SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES/. VSBYS POTENTIALLY INTO MVFR LEVELS ALSO WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP. OTHERWISE IMPROVING CIGS NEAR 12-15Z THURSDAY AND MORE
WEST TO WNW SHIFT BEHIND FRONT...STILL SIMILAR GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  70  46  65 /  80  20  20  10
ATLANTA         51  68  48  64 /  90  20  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  62  40  57 /  90  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    47  68  44  63 /  90  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        54  73  51  69 /  70  10  10   5
GAINESVILLE     49  66  46  61 /  90  20  20  10
MACON           53  73  49  68 /  70  10  10   5
ROME            48  68  44  61 /  90  30  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  50  70  46  65 /  90  10  10   5
VIDALIA         57  74  53  71 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39/BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-080300-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1052 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A BETTER ORGANIZED LINE PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST...SHOULD IMPACT ATLANTA METRO AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTER.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. SOME
BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FROST
ARE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     HAIL             COAL MOUNTAIN           34.27N  84.09W
04/06/2016  E0.75 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZED HAIL IN NORTHERN FORSYTH COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600230

KMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1117 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     HAIL             BALL GROUND             34.34N  84.38W
04/06/2016  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            OLD DAWSONVILLE HWY AND JORDON ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600231

KMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             1 NW WOODSTOCK          34.11N  84.53W
04/06/2016  E0.88 INCH       CHEROKEE           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600232

KMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1127 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             1 SE COAL MOUNTAIN      34.26N  84.09W
04/06/2016  M1.00 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600233

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016

GAZ089-090-070415-
MUSCOGEE GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
1140 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1140 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FORT BENNING/LAWSON
ARMY AIR FLD...OR NEAR COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
COLUMBUS...BIBB CITY...UPATOI...FORT BENNING/LAWSON ARMY AIR FLD...NORTH
FORT BENNING...EDGEWOOD...EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING...KENWOOD...VISTA
TERRACE...BENNING HILLS...FLAT ROCK...ROSE HILL...AVONDALE...SAND HILL...
CARTER ACRES...BENNING PARK...COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...HIGHLAND
PARK...BATTLE PARK AND CUSTER ROAD TERRACE.

LAT...LON 3235 8500 3238 8497 3238 8499 3239 8497
      3241 8498 3242 8496 3244 8497 3245 8500
      3250 8500 3259 8483 3258 8470 3256 8469
      3256 8467 3252 8469 3253 8464 3250 8464
      3249 8466 3235 8466 3230 8494 3233 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 252DEG 36KT 3241 8495

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1215 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

GAZ014-022>025-070500-
DAWSON GA-BANKS GA-JACKSON GA-FORSYTH GA-HALL GA-
1215 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...
SOUTHWESTERN BANKS...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND
HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1214 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FLOWERY BRANCH...OR 7
MILES EAST OF CUMMING...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...JEFFERSON...CUMMING...BUFORD...BRASELTON...FLOWERY BRANCH...
OAKWOOD...LULA...HOSCHTON...PENDERGRASS...GILLSVILLE...TALMO...REST HAVEN...
CANDLER...AQUALAND PARK...WAR HILL PARK...CHESTATEE...LAKE LANIER
ISLANDS...ROAD ATLANTA-LANIER SPEEDWAY AND THOMPSONS MILL.

LAT...LON 3442 8356 3407 8360 3410 8380 3411 8382
      3413 8382 3411 8385 3412 8395 3417 8406
      3415 8409 3415 8411 3433 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 271DEG 27KT 3424 8402