Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Kansas City, MO

796 
WWUS53 KEAX 240556
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

MOC003-005-075-087-147-227-240606-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-160824T0600Z/
ATCHISON MO-ANDREW MO-GENTRY MO-WORTH MO-NODAWAY MO-HOLT MO-
1256 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ATCHISON...NORTHERN ANDREW...
NORTHWESTERN GENTRY...WESTERN WORTH...NODAWAY AND HOLT COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 100 AM CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 4057 9452 4025 9433 3994 9480 3999 9531
      4004 9542 4012 9539 4018 9548 4024 9547
      4026 9555 4030 9556 4031 9566 4034 9562
      4041 9566 4046 9564 4048 9570 4054 9565
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 339DEG 34KT 4083 9479 4050 9531 4044 9589 

$$

LEIGHTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.Update...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Been watching two areas...OMA area and north central KS
supercell...for the past few hours. The OMA activity has congealed
and now forming an expanding cold pool which is now pushing
southeast. The north central KS supercell has morphed into an
accelerating bow echo. Both features will be enhanced and maintained
by an increasing ssw low level jet. All that said have adjusted the
PoPs over northwest/west central MO and adjacent eastern KS to
account for these developments/expectations.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 304 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

So far, other than some showers and a few isolated thunderstorms that
popped up throughout the first portion of the day, the weather has
thus far been relatively quiet. However, there is continued
anticipation of convection amping up as the night progresses.
Currently looking at the potential for two main rounds of storms this
evening into the overnight hours. The first would be this afternoon
into the evening hours, thanks to the combination of some
destabilization plus an increasing LLJ, although lapse rates have
been paltry. This LLJ will continue to intensify as the night
continues, opening up the door for round two of storms to occur
around midnight through as late as the pre-dawn hours. Of particular
note, all of the models seem to be struggling resolving what's going
on and what's to occur so haven't been able to hone in on one
particular model. As for the primary threats, wind would be at the
top of the list should storms go severe, although hail and a brief
spin-up aren't out of the question.

Another severe weather threat exists for late tomorrow as a frontal
boundary approaches from the north and west. Increasing shear values
with a potentially even more unstable airmass ahead of the front
yields a bit more of a concern for the severe potential tomorrow. The
limiting factor would be the timing as model runs have been slowing
down the front's progression. Primary hazard looks to again be gusty
to perhaps damaging winds but there is the added threat of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall creating a localized flood threat,
particularly if storms train over the same areas and where flash
flood guidance might be lower.

For the remainder of the forecast period, couldn't feasibly remove
PoPs from any period as the region remains locked in an unsettled
pattern. The aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across
central to southern MO Thursday before washing out on Friday. With
ample moisture flowing in under southerly to southwesterly flow into
the weekend and the forecast area sitting on the periphery of ridging
to the east, the door is left open for multiple days of convection
chances for the forecast area, although not everyone will of course
see rain everyday. Temperatures generally speaking will remain near
or slightly below normal for this time of year, especially under any
sort of cloud cover that may limit daytime heating. Wednesday looks
to be the warmest day of week for the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area with these locations sitting within the warm sector
ahead of the front.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will move across northern MO overnight with
the southern edge of the activity possibly reaching down to the MO
River. VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds will prevail south
of this activity while MVFR ceilings likely under the stronger
storms. The convection should move into far northeast and east
central MO by mid Wednesday morning. The rest of the morning should
be dry with VFR conditions.

While isolated convection is possible just about anywhere during the
early/mid afternoon hours thunderstorms should start to bubble late
afternoon/early evening as a cold front slides southeast through
northwest MO. The evening convective activity will likely track
repeatedly over the same region as the front stalls. West central
MO/east central KS into northeast MO looks like the most favored
region. MVFR ceilings/visibilities with occasional IFR ceilings are
likely.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Update...MJ
Discussion...lg
Aviation...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH STORMS
 PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE
 WEATHER WITH THE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
 WEDNESDAY...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
 WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
 OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

MOZ001-002-011-240545-
NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-HOLT MO-
1209 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...NODAWAY AND NORTHERN
HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1207 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VILLISCA TO NEAR
BLANCHARD TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.  THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION IN SHENANDOAH NEBRASKA
REPORTED A 55 MPH WIND.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYVILLE...TARKIO...MOUND CITY...ROCK PORT...FAIRFAX...
BURLINGTON JUNCTION...HOPKINS...RAVENWOOD...MAITLAND...SKIDMORE...
CRAIG...ROCKPORT...BARNARD...PARNELL...GRAHAM...CLEARMONT...ELMO...
PICKERING...WESTBORO AND WATSON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 84 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9464 4039 9460 4036 9460 4013 9485
      4012 9540 4018 9548 4023 9547 4025 9549
      4026 9555 4030 9556 4031 9566 4034 9562
      4041 9566 4046 9564 4048 9570 4054 9565
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 323DEG 38KT 4086 9498 4061 9531 4058 9581

LEIGHTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

KSZ025-102-103-MOZ020-028-240600-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-BUCHANAN MO-PLATTE MO-
1211 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH...
SOUTHERN DONIPHAN...ATCHISON...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND WESTERN
BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1211 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MUSCOTAH TO NEAR HOYT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...ATCHISON...WATHENA...ELWOOD...EFFINGHAM...RUSHVILLE...
LANCASTER...EASTON...MUSCOTAH...DENTON...LEWIS AND CLARK VILLAGE...
DONIPHAN...FARMINGTON...HURON...IATAN...BENDENA...
LEWIS AND CLARK VI...POTTER...ST. JOSEPH AIRPORT AND ARRINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9557 3965 9534 3974 9534 3977 9487
      3917 9509 3917 9518 3942 9518 3942 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 259DEG 27KT 3954 9552 3923 9565

LEIGHTON