Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Quad Cities, IA

812 
WGUS73 KDVN 201059
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

ILC071-IAC057-115-201615-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160720T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON IL-LOUISA IA-DES MOINES IA-
559 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISA AND NORTHEASTERN DES
MOINES COUNTIES...

AT 558 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...WAPELLO...OQUAWKA...MEDIAPOLIS...STRONGHURST...
MORNING SUN...GLADSTONE...GULF PORT...KOSSUTH...LONE TREE...
GARLAND...NORTHFIELD...OLENA...HOPPER...DECORRA...ELRICK JUNCTION...
HENDERSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...SPERRY...KINGSTON AND CAIRO.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 9135 4123 9119 4110 9107 4096 9095
      4085 9092 4070 9088 4067 9102 4083 9109
      4092 9116 4106 9125

$$

05

531 
WGUS73 KDVN 201409
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
909 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

ILC071-IAC057-115-201615-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160720T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON IL-LOUISA IA-DES MOINES IA-
909 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISA AND NORTHEASTERN DES
MOINES COUNTIES...

AT 906 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND ROADWAYS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS MORNING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...WAPELLO...OQUAWKA...MEDIAPOLIS...STRONGHURST...
MORNING SUN...GLADSTONE...GULF PORT...KOSSUTH...LONE TREE...
GARLAND...NORTHFIELD...OLENA...HOPPER...DECORRA...ELRICK JUNCTION...
HENDERSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...SPERRY...KINGSTON AND CAIRO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 9135 4123 9119 4110 9107 4096 9095
      4085 9092 4070 9088 4067 9102 4083 9109
      4092 9116 4106 9125

$$

HAASE

468 
WGUS73 KDVN 201516
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1016 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

IAC057-115-ILC071-201524-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160720T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON IL-LOUISA IA-DES MOINES IA-
1016 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISA AND NORTHEASTERN DES MOINES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS NOT REPORTED
ANY FLASH FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4121 9135 4123 9119 4110 9107 4096 9095
      4085 9092 4070 9088 4067 9102 4083 9109
      4092 9116 4106 9125

$$

HAASE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
405 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

A few storms have recently developed into southeast Iowa attendant
to secondary wing of moisture transport near 850 mb. Another
stronger moisture transport axis extends from north central and
northeast Nebraska through southwest Minnesota where recent
convection has developed though it has been struggling across
portions of Minnesota where evidence of some mid level capping.
Nebraska portion of convection is also being aided by mid level
shortwave, and this wave looks to crest upper ridge and slide
SSE though Mid-Mississippi Valley to maintain storm chances next
12-18 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Shortwave and warm, moist advection north of warm front will
provide at least scattered storms today. Will have to watch
convective trends to our northwest as cwa remains in favorable
850 mb thermal gradient for genesis/track of mesoscale convective
system should convection grow upscale. For now though will
maintain moderate to high chance pops for warm advection wing
with highest pops central and north. Models suggest bulk shear
plenty with 0-6km 30-40 kts, which would support some risk of
organized storms with mainly a wind threat along with very heavy
rain with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Heights aloft build a bit
more tonight with veering jet, elevated moisture transport and
thermal gradient more conducive for convection to our northeast
thus have kept precip chances below mention by mid evening through
overnight.

Temps will be challenging today, with areas north and east most
favorable to maintain clouds and convection, and have highs
mid to upper 80s but potential to be cooler. Meanwhile, southwest
cwa most favored for some sunshine and hotter temperatures, and
have highs around 90 or lower 90s. These temps combined with dew
points climbing into the 70s will make it feel like 100 or lower
100s southwest cwa and 90s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Main forecast concern remains the heat and the potential for
convection through the period.  Confidence is lower in potential
excessive heat warnings as dewpoints are suspect along with the
potential for convection each day.  At this time, the best chance
for excessive heat warning criteria will be due to 4 days in a row
of heat advisory criteria.

Still have low confidence in the rest of the CWA meeting excessive
heat warning criteria due to convection potential and concerns over
whether or not the models are accurately producing BL moisture.
Looking at the model soundings, dry air exists aloft and with
daytime heating, this could cause our dewpoints to be lower.  This
coupled with convective temperatures being met, suggests that we may
have diurnal convection.  If the ridge was more over our CWA then we
would have higher confidence in this verifying.  Regardless, its
going to be hot and people will need to take safety precautions for
sure.

Friday the boundary has accelerated south in the latest runs,
suggesting that convection will be possible during peak heating.
This will further complicate matters, especially across eastern
portions of the CWA.

Through the weekend, we should gradually cool down into more normal
temperatures with the boundary somewhere across the area.  This
will lead to schc to chc pops through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Generally VFR conditions expected with episodes of mostly MVFR visibilities
due to patchy fog later tonight and also isolated to scattered showers
and storms later arriving from the north by mid morning Wednesday which
is handled as a VCTS wording due to low confidence. Winds generally
light and tending south to southeasterly.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
     evening for Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-
     Jones-Linn-Muscatine-Scott.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Saturday for Benton-Des Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-
     Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
     evening for Bureau-Carroll-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-
     Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Saturday for Hancock-Henderson.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Saturday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Nichols

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
438 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-210945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM VINTON TO IOWA CITY TO CARTHAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 100 TO 110 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.