Storm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

054 
WHUS73 KDTX 290252
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
952 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...HIGH END GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ENSUES LATER IN THE DAY. DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL GENERATE STRONG
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE HURON. THE STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KNOTS...LOOK TO OCCUR NORTH OF STURGEON POINT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE HURON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING.

LHZ363-441-462-463-291500-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160229T0900Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0014.160229T0252Z-160301T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
952 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-291500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160229T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.160229T1500Z-160229T2100Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
952 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 48 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

LHZ464-290900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160229T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
952 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-291500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.160229T1500Z-160301T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
952 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-291500-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.160229T1500Z-160229T2100Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
952 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 38 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 48 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

SC

453 
WHUS73 KDTX 290854
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...HIGH END GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS
LED TO A SLOWER INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS ON COASTAL SITES AND WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION...THE GALE EVENT ONGOING WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH 12-
15Z THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT MARINE WIND EVENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN LAKE
HURON BASIN FROM 15Z TO 00Z TODAY. AN ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY CAUSING
UNSTABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
WIND FIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF STURGEON POINT MAINLY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST GALE
FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN TIMED TO LIFT TOWARD THE FAR END OF
WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY LATE TUESDAY.

LHZ362-292100-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160229T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.160229T1500Z-160229T2100Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
354 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 48 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

LHZ464-291000-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160229T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
354 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

$$

LHZ421-422-292100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.160229T1500Z-160301T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
354 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-441-462-463-292100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160301T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
354 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-292100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.160229T1500Z-160229T2100Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
354 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 38 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

SS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK POSTIONED ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALONG THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER...EXPECT A BUSY START TO THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL CLIPPER LOWS TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING A COUPLE
PERIODS OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS...THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS TWO SEPERATE COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOWS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A BIT OF SNOW...WILL ACCOMPANY THESE COLD FRONTS AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING AS FORCING AND MOSITURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE STRONGEST WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE AS IT PASSES VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SO FAR TODAY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN HAS LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND
GUSTS SUBDUED SLIGHTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. REMAIN CONCERNED
THAT THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE LAKE ERIE BASIN SOUTH OF I-94...MAY MIX OUT ENOUGH TO
BRING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERION. EVEN IF THIS
45 MPH CRITERION IS NOT MET...DO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES BOTH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN
COLD AIR ADVECTION...DOWNWARD MOMEMTUM ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INTO THE
35 MPH RANGE TO LOCALLY 40 MPH. WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF THIS SECOND
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS OF A
CONCERN AFTER FROPA MONDAY EVENING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WITH BE A MORE SIFIGNICANT STORM SYSTEM
DUE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW
JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON COAST DIGS INTO MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER
VIGOROUS ARCTIC SHORTWAVE PIVOTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AROUND WEST SIDE OF POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY.

NOW THAT THESE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN SAMPLED TO A LARGER DEGREE...12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE PERHAPS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A RELATIVELY STABLE
SOLUTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE CHAOTIC MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN
TO RUN FORECASTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. GEM/GFS/NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE UKMET...HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE PHASED AND THUS STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE RESULTANT LOW
PRESSURE THAT LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PHASING ALSO OCCURS FURTHER WEST AND SLOWS THE MAIN SYSTEM/S
ARRIVAL SLIGHTLY...WHILE LEADING TO A TRACK NORTH OF THE ROUGH 00Z
MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE...THIS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AS THE SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE ARCTIC STORM TRACK WOULD SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO DIG MORE
SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONUS PLAINS AND LEAD TO THIS GREATER
PHASING AS THE WAVES INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.

SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER FORMIDABLE WINTER STORM THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WITH A LARGER POOL
OF ARCTIC AIR NEARBY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER
SYSTEMS...THE POSSIBLY OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HIGHER WITH
THIS STORM...DEPENDING ON THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE AREA...THE JUMPY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO THIS POINT CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY JUST YET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHILE WEIGHTED
TO A STRONGER SYSTEM AS WELL...VARY ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
DOUBT TO THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE DISTRIBUTION.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND TO
A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF A WINTRY
MIX FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION BEGINS
WITH FGEN FORCING ALONG STALLED WEST TO EAST FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS LOW ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND THEN TRANSTION AN AREA DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ LOOKS TO BE QUIET
AND UNEVENTFUL AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DRY BUT COOL THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON. GUSTS TO 40 KNOT GALES ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID-EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LAKE
HURON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ENSUES LATER IN THE DAY. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL GENERATE STRONG GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN END OF LAKE HURON. THE STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 KNOTS...LOOK TO OCCUR NORTH OF STURGEON POINT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE HURON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN NEAR IN
THE OHIO BORDER. LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A BAY CITY TO PORT SANILAC LINE...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS SOUTH OF I-94.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 108 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST NEAR 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE 23Z TO 04Z
WINDOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALMOST ENTIRELY AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF. AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING...EXPECTING TO SEE
ANOTHER SPIKE IN SPEEDS ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 02-04Z. WINDS (WEST-NORTHWEST)
COULD AGAIN GUST NEAR 30 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN REDEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH DURING
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DTW...WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...FROM A
220 DIRECTION. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS SHOULD PRECEDE THE
FRONT...MOSTLY OCCURRING IN A SHORT WINDOW BETWEEN 00-04Z AT DTW.
ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH AROUND
04Z. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS FROM 270-280 DEGREES WILL BRING ABOUT
CONCERNS FOR CROSS WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS SUBSIDE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000FT THIS EVENING.

* HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN.

* MEDIUM WITH CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS (270 DEGREES) FOR A SHORT PERIOD
  AFTER 04Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ363-421-422-441-
     462-463.

     STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...DG/RK
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO
AVIATION.....HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
455 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-291000-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
455 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE STORM. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CHANGES IN THE STORM
TRACK MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST DETAILS.
KEEP ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS FOR THE MOST ACCURATE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-291000-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
455 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF LAKE HURON. REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WITH A
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

CB