Alert archive / Massachusetts / High Wind Watches in 2016

High Wind Watch 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

February 15, 20169 counties in Massachusetts; 5 counties in Rhode Island

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this high wind watch at Feb 15, 2016, 3:54 AM EST for 9 counties in Massachusetts; 5 counties in Rhode Island. It took effect at Feb 16, 2016, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2016, 3:54 AM EST (08:54 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 16, 2016, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 16, 2016, 2:46 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Essex County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 14 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Chatham, MA (KCHH), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Chatham, MA at 00:00Z on 2016-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Chatham, MA at 00:00Z on 2016-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 21 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1607 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

810 
WWUS71 KBOX 150854
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

MAZ007-013>024-RIZ002>008-151700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0003.160216T1700Z-160217T0200Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
354 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATION...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
  THE ISLANDS. SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE
  WATCH.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
  OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  

* IMPACTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS. IF THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS DO MATERIALIZE...THE
  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS.  THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
PROPERTY DAMAGE.  IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE
AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

$$

FRANK

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4 follow-up statements
513 
WWUS71 KBOX 151558
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1058 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

MAZ007-013>024-RIZ002>008-160000-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0003.160216T1700Z-160217T0200Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
1058 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATION...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
  THE ISLANDS...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
  OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A BAND OF MODERATE TO
  HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

* IMPACTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS. IF THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS DO MATERIALIZE...THE
  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE
AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

$$


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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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@NWSBOSTON
218 
WWUS71 KBOX 151959
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

MAZ007-013>024-RIZ002>008-160400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.HW.A.0003.160216T1800Z-160217T0300Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
259 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATION...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD 
  AND THE ISLANDS...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
  PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MODERATE
  TO HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...SWEEPING ACROSS
  THE REGION THAT MAY DRAG DOWN FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

* IMPACTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS. IF THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS DO MATERIALIZE...THE
  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE
AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

$$


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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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@NWSBOSTON
904 
WWUS71 KBOX 160255
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

MAZ007-013>024-RIZ002>008-161100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0003.160216T1800Z-160217T0300Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
955 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATION...MOST OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WHEN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
  THUNDERSTORMS CROSSES THE REGION.

* IMPACTS...WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY
  DAMAGE...AND MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN A FEW
  LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.
SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BE DAMAGED BY STRONG
WINDS. 

&&

$$

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JWD
302 
WWUS71 KBOX 160746
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
246 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

MAZ007-013>024-RIZ002>008-161600-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0003.160216T1800Z-160217T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0003.160216T1800Z-160217T0300Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
246 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATION...MOST OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING...WHEN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
  CROSSES THE REGION.

* IMPACTS...WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY
  DAMAGE...AND MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN A FEW
  LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED FOR WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PROPERTY DAMAGE AND COULD BRING DOWN LARGE BRANCHES...OR EVEN
TREES AND POWER LINES. BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

RIZ001-161600-
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0003.160216T1800Z-160217T0300Z/
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
246 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING...WHEN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
  CROSSES THE REGION.

* IMPACTS...WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY 
  DAMAGE...AND MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN A FEW 
  LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED FOR WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PROPERTY DAMAGE AND COULD BRING DOWN LARGE BRANCHES...OR EVEN
TREES AND POWER LINES. BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

CTZ004-MAZ005-006-012-161600-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0008.160216T1800Z-160217T0000Z/
WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM...
LOWELL...LAWRENCE...MILFORD...WORCESTER
246 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
  NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING...WHEN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
  THUNDERSTORMS CROSSES THE REGION.

* IMPACTS...WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY
  DAMAGE AND MAY BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
  BRIEFLY LOSE POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE. 
DRIVING CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

&&

$$


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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Feb 14, 9:40 PM EST, 6 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 9:40 PM EST, 6 hours 14 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT ON TAP BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS WIND. A
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH ONSET ON MONDAY THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL THREATS OF WINDS / FOG / NUISANCE AND
COASTAL FLOODING. DRIER AND COOLER DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN PASSES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

***BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WITHOUT THE WIND***

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.  GIVEN ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WERE ALREADY
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA/WESTERN NY.  THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MORE
EXTENSIVE AND MOVING FASTER THAN A LOT OF GUIDANCE INDICATES.  STILL
SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
BEFORE THEY ARRIVE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW TEMPS OCCUR
AROUND 2 OR 3 AM IN SOME LOCALES THEN RISE SOME NEAR DAYBREAK AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE.

OVERALL...STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW ZERO.
MANY OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS FROM 0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT GET BELOW ZERO IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON
OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FIELDS ARE ALREADY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY  THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT BEGINNING 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL
  TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINTRY MIX OF SNOW / SLEET / FREEZING RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH
  THE ADVISORY PERIOD BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.

* POTENTIAL WIND / FOG / NUISANCE - POOR DRAINAGE AS WELL AS COASTAL
  FLOODING IMPACTS IN ADDITION TO WINTER WEATHER.

MONDAY...

AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT. BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT THROUGH A LINGERING DRY-ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT. THE COLUMN
MOISTENS WITH LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF PRECIP ONSET IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT BECOMING MODERATE SNOW DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY BUT
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE AS TO WHETHER SNOW ERODES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE INTO THE DRY-ARCTIC AIR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM AWFULLY
QUICK WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...THEN AGAIN DEALING WITH AN
INCREASING ANOMALOUS S-FLOW OF WARM-MOIST AIR.

ASIDE...CONCERN OVER IMPACTS TO THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING COMMUTE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING HARTFORD...SPRINGFIELD...
AND PERHAPS EVEN THE WORCESTER METRO AREAS. A FLUFFY SNOW BUT LIKELY
TO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BEGIN 1 PM DENOTING THE TIME OF
SNOW ONSET CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SNOWFALL: LOOKING AT A COATING FOR MOST LOCALES...BUT COULD SEE UP
AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR THE HARTFORD METRO AREA PRIOR TO SUNDOWN.
AGAIN...CONCERNS WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS NOTED
EARLIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...

SNOW MIXING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL RAIN. FOCUS ON THE ENCROACHMENT AND OVERSPREADING OF A H85 WARM
NOSE A CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS HAS OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. CONTINUED BROADSCALE ASCENT OF WARM-MOIST AIR WITH LOW-MID
LEVEL CONVERGENT FORCING OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE REGION. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON A
50-60 KT S LOW-LEVEL JET CONVERGING INTO S NEW ENGLAND.

E/SE NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL PLAINS: EVALUATING AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW
PER THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WINDS...E-COMPONENT OVER E/SE
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A QUICKER CHANGEOVER
OF SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING S-FLOW
USHERS WARMER AIR N. EXPECT AROUND A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF WINTRY
MIX OUTCOMES PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

N/W INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND: GREATER CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND CT RIVER VALLEY. MORE N-COMPONENT
OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW PRESENTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS WARMER AIR SURGES IN ALOFT WITH INCREASING
S FLOW RESULTING IN A GREATER DEPTH OF WARMER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. LIKELY TO SEE A TRANSITION OF SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE A STRONG POTENTIAL
OF OBSERVING A 6-HOUR OR GREATER FREEZING RAIN EVENT. DIFFICULT TO
DISAGREE CONSIDERING THE RECENT RECORD-BREAKING ARCTIC AIRMASS AND
ROUGHLY ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF COLDER AIR MAY HOLD LONGER IN SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS.

SNOWFALL: LOOKING AT 1-2 INCHES ALONG AND N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WITH 2-3 FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS SW TO THE HARTFORD-METRO. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN N/W MASS WITH 3-4 INCHES FORECAST.

ICE: AT LEAST A TRACE ALONG AND N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN S/E BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN. A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH
ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS TO THE HARTFORD METRO AND POINTS N/W.

WINDS: NOTED EARLIER GOOD S-FETCH WITH 1-2 KFT AGL WINDS AROUND 50
KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND.
CONSENSUS OF SOUNDING PROFILES HAS A STOUT INVERSION WITH WARMER AIR
OVERRUNNING ALOFT USHERED BY HIGHLY ANOMALOUS S-FLOW. MIXING LIKELY
LIMITED IS CORROBORATED BY CIPS ANALOGS WHICH HAS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS OVER S/SE-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE
CONCERNING ANY WIND HEADLINES.

FOG: SURGE IN 40-DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR INTO S/SE NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
REMNANT SNOW PACK AVERAGING 4 TO 7 INCHES FOR THE AREA. IF WINDS
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. CIPS
ANALOGS DO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITIES OF 1
MILE OR LESS OVER ALL OF S NEW ENGLAND. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIFTS N COINCIDENT WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL CONVERGENT STOUT S-FLOW. PERHAPS A LULL IN BETWEEN PRIOR TO
THE CRUX OF THE DYNAMICS / DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS
SIGNAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL. NOT OUTSTANDING NOTING
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 99TH PERCENTILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND DEEP-LAYER
FORCING WITH THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH.
ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT LATE IN THE DAY WITH RAINS LINGERING N/E BEHIND
WHICH COOLER AIR USHERS IN WITH W-FLOW.

N/W INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND: SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS
SHELTERED INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N/W MASS PROLONGING A FREEZING RAIN
EVENT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT A CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN TOWARDS NOON.

WINDS: STOUT INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE BUT WARM AIR CREEPING N
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOW-50S. POTENTIAL
FOR MIXING WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE INCREASES. EXPECT 25 TO 35 MPH
S-GUSTS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND THE STRONGEST ALONG THE S/SE COAST
OF 40 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CIPS ANALOGS.
CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND HEADLINES.

FLOODING: RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF S NEW
ENGLAND HOLDS A LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF ROUGHLY HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALONG WITH FORECAST STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NOTED ABOVE...IN COLLABORATION WITH THE NE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...LOOKING AT MAINLY NUISANCE / POOR-DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
CONSIDERING THE DETAILS BELOW AND POSSIBLE SNOW-CLOGGED DRAINS.

A SHORT-DURATION EVENT...MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF AS THE GROUND
IS SOLIDLY FROZEN. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ERODE THE SNOW ALONG WITH
WARMER AIR...BUT OVERALL A RELATIVELY MINIMAL CONTRIBUTION. RIVERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE WATER. NEED 3 TO 3.5 INCHES TO BE MORE
CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING. LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING FLOOD
HEADLINES.

FOG: CONTINUED S-FLOW OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO
THE LOW-50S. AGAIN...SHOULD WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...COULD SEE SHALLOW
GROUND FOG OVER THE RESIDUAL SNOW PACK. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL OF VISIBILITIES OVER MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND OF A
MILE OR LESS. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WITH ANY
HEAVY RAIN SWEEPING THE REGION.

COASTAL FLOODING: PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW DURING
THIS TIME. MODEL MASS FIELDS LOOK SIMILAR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING WEATHER AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE
MOVE OFF THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. COLD FROPA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 00Z WESTERN SECTIONS AND 04Z
CAPE/ISLANDS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOUTH WINDS UNTIL FROPA...THEN
SHOWERS ENDING. MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW SOME DRYING DURING THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN RI/EASTERN MASS. BUT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS BY EARLY WED
MORNING. SO NO FIXED CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY...

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE FIELDS EXTEND TO 700 MB
WITH LIMITED LIFT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
925 MB. BUT NO COLD ADVECTION UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. TEMPS
AT 925 MB WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S. COLD
ADVECTION AT NIGHT BRINGS A 5-6C COOLING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND IS OVERHEAD MUCH
OF FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL
CREATE A DEEPER MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT LEAST 900 MB AND POSSIBLY
850 MB. WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE AVAILABLE THURSDAY FOR MIXING
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LESS
MIXING AND LESS WIND. SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE. TEMPS ALOFT BOTH DAYS SUPPORT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

CLIPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLOUDS TO
OUR ARE ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-GUSTS DIMINISHING.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND SW TO
NE BY SUNDOWN. -SN DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SW NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS. IFR VSBYS EXPECTED. INCREASING SE-WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR-VLIFR. INCREASING SE-WINDS. SN TRANSITIONING TO PL TO FZRA
PRIOR TO CHANGING TO RA SE TO NW. VSBY IMPACTS WITH SN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...FOG AND RA OVER THE S/SE. LLWS DEVELOPS WITH SW-WINDS
40-50 KTS AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR-LIFR. S-WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS OVER S/SE-TERMINALS. ALSO
CONTINUED LLWS IMPACTS WITH S-WINDS 40-60 KTS ROUGHLY 2 KFT AGL.
ALL PRECIP -RA...RA/+RA AT TIMES. VSBY IMPACTS ACCORDINGLY ALONG
WITH FOG. WINDS BACKING W CLOSE TO SUNDOWN AND CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...
WILL HOLD THE ONSET OF -SN CLOSER TO 0Z. IFR IMPACTS DEVELOPING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
MIX PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...
IFR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PUSH AS -SN
DEVELOPS BECOMING MORE MODERATE. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO PL THEN TO FZRA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS GUST 20-30 KNOTS WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT
EVENING WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AT 2000 FEET WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 60-80 KNOTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VFR MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR POSSIBLE IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW-WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG WITH WAVES. SHOULD SEE THE GRADUAL
CONCLUSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES RESULTING IN GOOD BOATING
WEATHER.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE GOOD BOATING WEATHER. BUT SE-WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE ALONG WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WILL SEE WAVES BUILDING TO 4-FEET ON THE
S WATERS TOWARDS EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...OTHERWISE ALL RAIN AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30 KTS AS WAVES BUILD
6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS S-INNER WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED S-GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WAVES BUILDING 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE S-INNER AND OUTER WATERS.
GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. SOUTH GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL LINGER AT 8 TO 15 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  GALE WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

WEDNESDAY...

WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE ROUGH SEAS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST...AND COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATER WILL
BRING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRO-TIDES FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. FOCUS ALONG THE S-COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND WITH ROBUST S WINDS FORECAST THE HEIGHT OF WHICH
LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. SURGE
VALUES OF AROUND 1 FOOT FORECAST BY ESTOFS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2
TO 3 FEET IN NARRAGANSETT BAY WITH 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE S-WATERS.

THERE IS SOME POSSIBLE RISK ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE MAY COME DURING A PERIOD OF TRANSITION
TO LOW TIDE. IN ADDITION AN OVERALL SHORT-DURATION EVENT. MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCY TIME TO GET THINGS GOING. SOMETHING TO WATCH
AND SOMETHING WORTH NOTING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

NEWPORT /MINOR FLOODING 6.6 FEET/
MONDAY....../ 124P / 3.27
TUESDAY...../ 158A / 3.61
TUESDAY...../ 226P / 3.14
WEDNESDAY.../ 305A / 3.53

PROVIDENCE /MINOR FLOODING 7 FEET/
MONDAY....../ 142P / 4.48
TUESDAY...../ 210A / 4.75
TUESDAY...../ 241P / 4.28
WEDNESDAY.../ 313A / 4.60

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 14TH

BOSTON     -9 /PREV  -3 IN 1937/. COLDEST SINCE 1957.
HARTFORD  -12 /PREV  -9 IN 1979/.
PROVIDENCE -9 /PREV  -7 IN 1979/.
WORCESTER -16 /PREV -11 IN 1979/. COLDEST SINCE 1957.

RECORD MINIMUM HIGHS FOR FEB 14TH...

BOSTON.......14/1916 / THROUGH 430 PM... 12
HARTFORD.....11/1979 / THROUGH 430 PM... 10
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 / THROUGH 430 PM... 12
WORCESTER.... 7/1979 / THROUGH 430 PM...  7
BLUE HILL....10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR 15TH...

BOSTON...... -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -14/1943
WORCESTER... -19/1943
BLUE HILL... -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>010-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ005-006-011-012.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...STAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 3:46 AM EST, 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

MAZ002>004-008>010-026-160900-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-011-012-160900-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ007-013>021-RIZ002>007-160900-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS A RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-160900-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

THERE IS A RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIZ001-160900-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-160900-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-236-160900-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
346 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 3:55 AM ESTGale WatchBOX11 hr
Feb 15, 2:56 PM ESTGale WarningBOX34 hr

Nearby

High Wind Watches in Massachusetts, 2016High Wind Watches in Rhode Island, 2016Every high wind watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.