Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

048 
WWUS85 KBOU 122212
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
412 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO VALLEYS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON 
AND WESTERN GRAND COUNTIES TODAY... 
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND FOR THE NORTHERN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...

.WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING...CAUSING FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE EVENING. DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF THIS EVENING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
RECOVER AND FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL
CLIMB AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY...AND DANGEROUS TO EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

COZ211-213-217-130615-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0006.160713T1600Z-160714T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160713T0200Z/
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
412 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
VALLEYS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON AND WESTERN GRAND
COUNTIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 211...213 AND 217.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS
  EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...6 TO 12 PERCENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW
  ANY FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

COZ214-215-130615-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0006.160713T1600Z-160714T0200Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
412 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH
PARK AND THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 214 AND 215.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 8 PM.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 TO 14 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW
  ANY FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
258 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016

Westerly flow aloft will persist over Colorado today. This will
continue to bring dry conditions and gusty west winds to the
higher terrain. The fire danger will remain elevated over north
central Colorado and will issue a Red Flag Warning for gusty west
winds and low relative humidities. Airmass will warm a little
today with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across
northeast Colorado. Over the eastern plains, CAPE will reach up
500 J/kg with precipitable water values around three-quarters of
an inch. Nothing impressive, but like yesterday could see a storm
or two approach severe threshold with one inch hail. Will add low
pops to the forecast for the eastern plains, mainly during the
evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016

Conditions will continue to be dry and warm on Wednesday with
upper level zonal flow dominating. A lee side trough will set-up
helping to produce some downsloping during the day. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid 90s on the plains. By Wednesday
evening the first of a couple shortwaves embedded in the upper
level flow will move over the region. A surface cold front early
Thursday will enter the NE plains. This will cool temps back into
the 80s and increase moisture over the region. Higher precipitable
water values will be over the eastern plains by Thursday afternoon
and evening therefore the best CAPE will be out east. Shear values
are in the 40s so enough to keep some cells going to produce brief
heavy rain with PW values around 0.8, hail and gusty winds up to
40 mph will also be possible with the stronger storms. Closer to
the foothills conditions will be more stable with wind being the
main threat as upper air soundings are almost dry adiabatic to
500mb.

For Friday another shortwave will move into the region bringing
additional moisture and will help to keep temperatures in the mid
80s. Soundings show the potential for storms to form once again on
the plains but it may be a later show in order to destabilize the
mid layer.

For the weekend the upper level ridge starts to rebuild over the
desert southwest increasing temperatures back into the mid 90s.
the GFS and EC diverge here with the EC bringing increasing gulf
moisture into the state vs the GFS which extends the ridge
further west cutting off the flow of moisture. Will keep a slight
chance of storms for both days...mainly on the plains and wait to
see how the models resolve the high placement.

For the start of next week the upper ridge moves north and elongating
further west bringing warmer SW flow. This will help to increase
temperatures into the mid to upper 90s with continued diurnal
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016

Mostly clear skies will prevail through tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the eastern plains around and
after 00z. These storms are expected to stay to the east of the
Denver airports. Southerly winds will prevail through at 18z with
gusts to 25 knots possible 13z to 18z. A Denver Cyclone is
expected to develop this afternoon. This will make the wind
direction forecast uncertain. Eventually winds are expected to
become west to northwest around 00z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016

A dry westerly flow aloft will persist over Northern Colorado today.
Breezy to windy conditions are expected to develop over north
central Colorado this afternoon with westerly wind gusts 25 to 35
mph. In addition to the gusty winds, relative humidity will fall
into the teens. Winds will be a little lighter than yesterday, but
wind gusts and relative humidity levels will reach Red Flag criteria
again this afternoon and will issue a Red Flag Warning for north
central Colorado.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ211-213-217.

&&

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Meier

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

COZ030>051-130930-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
330 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL KEEP
THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE MID 90S ON
WEDNESDAY THEN FALL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM A
SET OF DISTURBANCES. A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
DUE TO DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.