River Flood Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

631 
WGUS84 KBMX 240528
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016


...The flood warning continues for the Catoma Creek Near U.S. 331 
Highway Bridge...

Recent rainfall was producing rises along the Catoma Creek...and levels have 
been on a steady climb Friday evening and into Saturday. The current forecast
shows the creek peaking around midnight Saturday night...and then falling
on Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued Sunday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC101-241728-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160124T1830Z/
/CATA1.1.ER.160123T1830Z.160124T0000Z.160124T0630Z.NO/
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

...A Flood Warning continues for
   The Catoma Creek Near U.S. 331 Highway Bridge.

* AT 10:00 PM Saturday the stage was 20.0 feet. 
* Minor Flooding is occurring.
* Flood Stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river has crested and will fall below Flood Stage 
  by 6 am Sunday.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural lands in the 
  vicinity of the U.S. 331 Highway Bridge occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 8629 3230 8631 3232 8640 3236 8640
          3231 8630 3228 8627         

$$

522 
WGUS84 KBMX 241354
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
754 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Catoma Creek Near U.S. 331 
Highway Bridge...

Observations show Catoma Creek crested just above Minor Flood Stage 
Saturday afternoon into evening...and fell below Minor Flood 
Stage late evening. An additional decline in water levels is projected.
Thus...the flood warning is cancelled.

This will be the last statement issued on this event.

&&

ALC101-241424-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160124T1830Z/
/CATA1.1.ER.160123T1830Z.160124T0000Z.160124T0442Z.NO/
754 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Catoma Creek Near U.S. 331 Highway Bridge.
* At  7:00 AM Sunday the stage was 18.7 feet. 
* Fell below flood stage at 10:42 PM Saturday.
* Flood Stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.0 feet by Monday
  morning .


&&

LAT...LON 3228 8629 3230 8631 3232 8640 3236 8640
          3231 8630 3228 8627         

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS MORNING WITH WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER STILL DOMINATED BY THE ASSOCIATED LARGE SURFACE
LOW. FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...THIS MEANS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
TODAY...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. ADD IN CLEARING SKIES...AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARMUP BEGINS SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT WITH AS MUCH VENGEANCE AS
THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM. MODELS HINT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
A FEW FLURRIES AS MOISTURE SINKS SOUTHWARD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SETUP...WEAK FORCING AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...REALLY IS NOT ONE THAT WOULD RESULT
IN WINTER IMPACTS FOR THIS AREA.

MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND WEDNESDAY REGARDING WHETHER THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR PUSHES CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...AND
HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR SOUTH A SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS
WOULD MEAN WHETHER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL RETURNS NORTHWARD
THURSDAY...OR WE REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY...AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE BIG MASS OF MVFR CATEGORY CLOUDS...WITH AN AMAZINGLY UNIFORM
CEILING RIGHT AROUND 2500 FT...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND MOVE OUT
FROM SW TO NE TODAY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE TYPICALLY AT LEAST A BIT
OPTIMISTIC ON THE TIMING OF SUCH EROSION AS A BIG STORM SYSTEM
LIKE THIS MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THUS...MY CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING OF THE SAME EROSION IS LOWER THAN TYPICAL. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE BIG STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY...AND ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF LOCATIONS ARE DONE WITH ALL PRECIPITATION. THIS ALSO MEANS
THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT BE GOING DOWN ANY MORE...EVEN IF THEY TAKE
THEIR TIME IMPROVING.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND CONTINUED COLD. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING. A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND TODAY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DRY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
604 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-241515-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
604 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FEW REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL END BY NOON.

WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH NOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH OR MORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.