Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1114 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Just when the wanted the models to be wrong, they have to show us
they can do some forecasting. This very powerful cold front looked
so promising at 3 pm on radar, but has since then quickly fizzled
as it approaches the western wall of Central Alabama. When I mean
fizzled I mean everything has weakened as the models progged.
Looking at infrared the tops of really warmed over the past 2
hours. Lightning has gone virtually nil with the only pulses even
found along the Mississippi River and that is decreasing as well.
the main outflow has moved well ahead of the rain and will enter
the northwestern section of the forecast area by 9 pm and then
quickly push through the area overnight.

The rain shield on the backside of this boundary is quickly
deteriorating with the loss of the heating as well. So while the
northwest will still some rain, albeit less than a quarter of an
inch on a whole, most areas along and south of the I-59 corridor
may see not much more than sprinkles or very light rain. If areas
west of I-65 actually measure it will be only a hundredth or two
hundredths and obviously not a drought buster. Have re-oriented
the pops for tonight as well as adjusting the temperature trends
and weather timing. Did add some sprinkles in the southeastern
counties between 6 am and 9 am as the front pushes through, but
measurable rainfall is not expected.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A strong cold front is set to move through Alabama overnight,
with an accompanying area of isolated to scattered showers,
although there remains a weakening trend as the night progresses.
MVFR clouds are evident along the backside of the front and will
continue the mention of these. A clear sky is forecast on Saturday
as clouds quickly clear from northwest to southeast during the
morning. Behind the front, peak sustained northwesterly winds
between 15-20 knots with 25 knot gusts possible. Winds will remain
up into the evening but drop below 10 knots.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air, cooler, and breezy conditions will build in behind a cold
front on Saturday. High fire danger is possible over the weekend
due to the very dry air and increase in winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  56  31  56  26 /  40  10   0   0   0
Anniston    48  57  33  57  30 /  30  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  45  56  34  57  32 /  30   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  44  59  33  60  29 /  50   0   0   0   0
Calera      46  57  35  58  32 /  30  10   0   0   0
Auburn      54  60  35  58  34 /  10  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  53  62  35  62  32 /  20  10   0   0   0
Troy        52  62  34  61  29 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
501 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-191415-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
501 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH, AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AREA WIDE. TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

08