Alert archive / North Dakota / Blizzard Watches in 2016

Blizzard Watch 2, NWS Bismarck, ND

December 22, 201632 counties in North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this blizzard watch at Dec 22, 2016, 2:20 AM MST for 32 counties in North Dakota. It took effect at Dec 25, 2016, 5:00 AM MST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 22, 2016, 2:20 AM MST (09:20 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 25, 2016, 5:00 AM MST
Expired
Dec 23, 2016, 2:37 PM MST
In force
Issued by
NWS Bismarck, ND
All 32 counties

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2016-12-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2016-12-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 83 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1910 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

182 
WWUS43 KBIS 220920
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS COULD IMPACT MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP. DETAILS INCLUDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BECOME MORE
CERTAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS...BE SURE
TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-221800-
/O.NEW.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
320 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016 /220 AM MST THU DEC 22 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW
  MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

PJA/JV
8 follow-up statements
185 
WWUS43 KBIS 221234
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS COULD IMPACT MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP. DETAILS INCLUDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BECOME
MORE CERTAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS...BE
SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-222045-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
634 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016 /534 AM MST THU DEC 22 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING 
  SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

PJA
845 
WWUS43 KBIS 221506
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS COULD IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP. DETAILS INCLUDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BECOME MORE
CERTAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS...BE SURE
TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS OR MONITOR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THIS EVOLVING WINTER STORM.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-222315-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
906 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016 /806 AM MST THU DEC 22 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING 
  SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
114 
WWUS43 KBIS 222029
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CST THU DEC 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP LEADING TO
DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS OR MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THIS
EVOLVING WINTER STORM.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-230430-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
229 PM CST THU DEC 22 2016 /129 PM MST THU DEC 22 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES
  ARE EXPECTED.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING 
  SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
573 
WWUS43 KBIS 222033
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
233 PM CST THU DEC 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP LEADING TO
DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS...
BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS OR
MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THIS EVOLVING WINTER STORM.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-230445-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
233 PM CST THU DEC 22 2016 /133 PM MST THU DEC 22 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
  POSSIBLE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING 
  SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
227 
WWUS43 KBIS 230326
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 PM CST THU DEC 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP LEADING TO
DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS...
BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS OR
MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THIS EVOLVING WINTER STORM.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-231300-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
926 PM CST THU DEC 22 2016 /826 PM MST THU DEC 22 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES 
  ARE POSSIBLE. 

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING 
  SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$
JNS
603 
WWUS43 KBIS 230933
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL. MAKE SURE TO
CHECK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS OR MONITOR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-231745-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
333 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2016 /233 AM MST FRI DEC 23 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* TIMING...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
  POSSIBLE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW
  MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

NH/CK
327 
WWUS43 KBIS 231641
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1041 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2016

...PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTFUL
WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND MONDAY...

...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY TO PREPARE
YOURSELF...AND YOUR PROPERTY...FOR WHAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKE IT WILL BE VERY HARSH WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY AND
MONDAY.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE BECOMING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
SOME 15 INCH AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS...IN NOT IMPOSSIBLE...
TRAVEL. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE WEATHER MAY DICTATE THAT YOU CHANGE
HOLIDAY PLANS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS HAS ALL
THE DETAILS.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-240045-
/O.CON.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
1041 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2016 /941 AM MST FRI DEC 23 2016/

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE 
  POSSIBLE. 

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW
  MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. DRIFTING SNOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL IN PARTS OF THE
  AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN
335 
WWUS43 KBIS 232137
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2016

...PREPARE NOW FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTFUL WEATHER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND MONDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAIR WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY AND ON SATURDAY
TO PREPARE YOURSELF...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR PROPERTY...FOR WHAT
WILL TURN OUT TO BE VERY HARSH WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY AND
MONDAY.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE CONFIDENT THAT A
POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. IT WILL BE A
FULL BLOWN BLIZZARD. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES...WITH SOME 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THAT...ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS...IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...TRAVEL. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE WEATHER MAY DICTATE
THAT YOU CHANGE HOLIDAY PLANS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, LAMOURE, EDGELEY, OAKES,
ELLENDALE, AND ASHLEY, WILL LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ON SUNDAY. ON ONE HAND THIS WOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
THERE DOWN. ON THE OTHER HAND, EVEN A LITTLE ICE GOES A LONG WAY
TO CAUSING PROBLEMS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS HAS ALL THE DETAILS.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-240545-
/O.UPG.KBIS.BZ.A.0002.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBIS.BZ.W.0004.161225T1200Z-161226T1800Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...
HALLIDAY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...
UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...
NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
337 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2016 /237 PM MST FRI DEC 23 2016/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* TIMING...CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH SOME 15
  INCH AMOUNTS.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW
  RESULTING IN A BLIZZARD. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN THIS CASE A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

PREPARE NOW FOR THIS STORM THAT WILL HIT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN/ABELING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this blizzard watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard watch went out at Dec 21, 11:16 PM MST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 11:16 PM MST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1216 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016

Mild pacific high pressure encompassed much of the western US, with
low pressure over central/northern Canada moving east. This has set
up a fast westerly upper/mid/low level flow across the Northern
Plains. West to southwest winds across western and central ND ranged
from mainly 10 to 20 mph, and were mixing the lower atmosphere and
keeping temperatures in the upper teens and 20s. The latest
iterations of the short term models indicate temperatures should not
fall much from current readings, and raised the forecast overnight
lows a tad. Otherwise current forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

Other than integrating the latest observations, no changes were
made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 547 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

Winds have continued to diminish, so the wind advisory across the
southeast was cancelled. The forecast remains on track with mostly
clear skies in place and temps currently in the mid/upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

Current surface analysis places low near far western Lake Superior
with high over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places
ridge over the northern Rockies with trough over the upper
midwest. Skies continue to clear over the area in the wake of the
earlier clipper system. Winds have been diminishing from west to
east. Have cancelled much of the wind advisory, leaving only
portions of the James River Valley.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight...winds will continue
to diminish over the James River Valley. Otherwise, a quiet night
is expected as upper level ridging builds into the area.

On Thursday...quiet weather continues with pleasant temperatures
as ridging remains over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

A potential major Christmas winter storm highlights the long term
forecast.

Friday will see continued above normal temperatures situated in
quasi-zonal flow. As surface high pressure moves east, a quick upper
level short wave and associated dry surface trough sweeps through
North Dakota Friday afternoon and evening. As this wave departs, a
brief period of ridging develops early Saturday before a west coast
trough begins to amplify around the Four Corners region,
transitioning the region into southwest flow.

As the trough continues to deepen, expect an upper level low to
close off near the base and lift north northeast into the central
and northern plains states. Cyclogenesis will develop an associated
surface low on the lee side of the Rockies. Chances of light
precipitation will begin to move into western and central North
Dakota late Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours (Christmas
Eve).

As we move into the overnight hours on Saturday and into Sunday
(Christmas Day), the surface low will continue to deepen as it lifts
northeast into South Dakota. Over the last several runs, models have
come into better agreement regarding precipitation location, with
growing confidence that this has the potential to become a
widespread and significant winter storm across the northern plains.
However, there are still many details that need to be ironed out
before issuing headlines. The 12 UTC GFS still remains slightly
further east and quicker than the 00z ECMWF run from last night. It
is important to note that the past few GFS iterations have taken a
jog towards the past few ECMWF and Canadian solutions.

Taking a glance at the 12 UTC GEFS plumes for KBIS, the mean and the
deterministic are fairly close with anywhere from 0.80 to 0.90
inches of liquid QPF. Quite a bit of spread still exists however,
ranging from a minimum of 0.23 inches to a maximum of 1.70 inches. A
solution does seem to be converging, but we are still likely a day
or two out before we can get specifics on amounts and placement.
That being said, a widespread area over western and central North
Dakota of 6+ inches of accumulating snow with strong gusty winds
certainly looks possible. Will continue to carry the SPS and
mention the potential in the HWO for now.

The storm will depart the region by late Monday, with colder
temperatures on the back side. The cold will be short lived, as
temperatures will likely moderate again by the middle of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016

Expect VFR conditions at all sites through the period. A west to
southwest surface flow should persist through Thursday evening.
Strong west winds aloft will create some low level wind shear this
morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...JV
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 21, 7:49 PM MST, 6 hours 31 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CST WED DEC 21 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-230300-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
849 PM CST WED DEC 21 2016 /749 PM MST WED DEC 21 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST CHRISTMAS DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR ANY SINGLE LOCATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THOSE WITH CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THIS POSSIBLE STORM. FORECAST DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING DAYS. SEE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

Nearby

Blizzard Watches in North Dakota, 2016Every blizzard watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.