Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS La Crosse, WI

212 
WWUS53 KARX 252136
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
436 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIC019-252215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160525T2215Z/
CLARK WI-
436 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY...

AT 436 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
THORP...OR 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEILLSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THORP AROUND 455 PM CDT. 
  GREENWOOD AROUND 500 PM CDT. 
  OWEN AROUND 515 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LONGWOOD...RESEBURG...WILLARD...WITHEE AND EIDSVOLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9041 4469 9092 4494 9092 4503 9062
      4503 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 234DEG 20KT 4481 9085 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DAS

386 
WWUS53 KARX 252152
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
452 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIC019-252215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160525T2215Z/
CLARK WI-
452 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY...

AT 451 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
THORP...OR 21 MILES NORTH OF NEILLSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OWEN AROUND 515 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LONGWOOD...RESEBURG...WITHEE...EIDSVOLD AND ATWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9041 4477 9088 4494 9092 4503 9062
      4503 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 239DEG 19KT 4485 9075 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DAS

341 
WWUS53 KARX 252159
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
459 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIC019-252215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160525T2215Z/
CLARK WI-
459 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY...

AT 459 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OWEN...OR 23
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OWEN AROUND 515 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LONGWOOD...RESEBURG...WITHEE...EIDSVOLD AND ATWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9041 4477 9088 4494 9092 4503 9062
      4503 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 245DEG 18KT 4490 9068 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DAS

924 
WWUS53 KARX 252209
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
509 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIC019-252219-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160525T2215Z/
CLARK WI-
509 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4480 9041 4477 9088 4494 9092 4503 9062
      4503 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 239DEG 19KT 4490 9068 

$$

DAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
308 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight thru Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main fcst concerns this period are SHRA/TSRA chances thru the
period, highs Thu.

18Z data analysis had low pressure near the ND/SD/MN, with a warm
front southeast of the low into southeast MN and southern WI. WV
imagery showing several shortwaves rotating northeast across the
Upper Midwest. One of them aiding the lower level forcing/lift/
moisture transport over the warm frontal boundary, with a band of
SHRA/TSRA rotating north across the fcst area early this afternoon.
Temps cool into the 60s with the rain. Outside the rain areas, early
afternoon temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

No issues noted with 25.12Z model initializations, though would like
a little tighter overall consensus that what was seen in this
morning's runs. Solutions quite similar for tonight/Thu as a
stronger shortwave troughing moves across the northern plains and to
north of MN by 00Z Fri and hgts rise over the region behind it. NAM
trends as a outlier tonight swinging a stronger piece of shortwave
energy across southern MN into northwest WI by 12Z Thu. Better
detail agreement for the shortwave ridge axis to move east of the
area Thu night with strengthening southwest flow ahead of the next
wave/low into the central/southern plains. Given the detail
differences early on, short-term fcst confidence is average this
cycle.

In the short term, shortwave energy moving across the area this
afternoon will exit east rather quickly this evening. Any SHRA/TSRA
with these features to exit the fcst area rather quickly this
evening with what should then be a rather quiet, convection-free
period across the fcst area tonight. However, various models
continue some form of weak 850-700MB warm advection/moisture
transport across the fcst area thru tonight into Thu. This moreso
with the NAM and its stronger shortwave across southern MN into
northwest WI overnight. Model soundings showing 500-1500 J/KG of
MUcape remains over the area tonight, with potential of little to no
CIN when lifting 850-800MB parcels. Will continue with a generally
dry fcst behind the departing wave this evening. Cannot rule out
NAM's solution for later tonight as WV imagery did show a rather
strong shortwave near the Black Hills at 18Z. Will leave the 20-30%
SHRA/TSRA chances after midnight for now. If NAM is more correct
with what would be stronger lift/divergence aloft, a few of any TSRA
later tonight could be strong. Otherwise cape/shear would only
support more general TSRA. Continued a dry fcst Thu morning behind
what would be any passing waves from late tonight.

Cape progged to build over the area Thu afternoon. Any lower level
thermo-dynamic forcing looks to be weak, with area under the right
exit region of a 60-80kt 250-300MB jet max much of the afternoon.
Limited bulk of any SHRA/TSRA chance Thu afternoon to after 21Z and
only 20-30%. Shear remains marginal at best for any severe storms
Thu afternoon. Lack of support aloft and the shortwave ridge axis
overhead not favorable for severe storms either. Shear increases Fri
night as the 850-500MB ridge axis passes. Lower level moisture
transport/theta-e convergence and thermo-dynamic forcing increase
as well. Model soundings showing at least 500-1000 J/KG cape
persisting thru Thu night with at least NAM indicating little to
no CIN when lifting 850-800MB parcels. Limited SHRA/TSRA chances
early Thu evening the continued the trend toward 40-70% later Thu
night as PW values increase back toward the 1.5 inch range. SWODY2
with potential of marginal severe TSRA looks to apply more to Thu
night.

Lastly, with much of Thu looking dry and more of a party cloudy day,
deeper mixing expected. 850MB temps Thu afternoon in the 15C to 18C
range supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s. With dew points in
around 60 to 65F, Thu to feel quite summery. Blend of the numerical
guidance has lows/highs for tonight thru Thu night well trended.

.LONG TERM...(Friday thru Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For Friday thru Saturday night: Main fcst concerns this period are
SHRA/TSRA chances thru the period.

Previous forecaster described it as a noisy pattern to end the week
into the weekend and that still fits. Decent agreement among 25.12Z
models for strong mid level troughing to be over the central/
northern plains Fri, with deep south/southwest flow over the Upper
midwest ahead of it. Models then slowly lift this trough northeast
toward/into the Upper Midwest Fri night thru Sat night. Trend
favors a compromise of the earlier runs on the trough lifting into
the region by Sat night. Fcst confidence in the Fri thru Sat night
period is average this cycle, as plenty of small scale detail
differences to impact sensible weather.

Fri thru Sat night continues to shape up as a period of several
surges of moisture transport/theta-e convergence in deep south/
southwest flow ahead of the trough slowly lifting northeast from the
central plans. Timing details will be everything on the associated
SHRA/TSRA chances with the various rounds of increased lower level
thermo-dynamic forcing expected to lift across the region. These
timing details we don't know yet, but much of the Thu thru Sat night
expected to be a wet period. Model/ensemble consensus SHRA/TSRA
chances in the 40-60% range across much of the fcst area much of
this period look reasonable at this time. As timing details come
into focus, a couple of these periods likely to end up with higher
rain chances and a couple with lower rain chances. MUcapes of 500-
1500 J/KG progged over the area, at least during the afternoon/
evening hours, with shear mainly on the weaker side and not
supporting organized severe TSRA. However, cannot rule out strong
to isolated severe storms either of the afternoons/evenings. More
clouds much of this period will keep lows on the mild side and
highs similar to those of today. Used a blend of the numerical
guidance highs/lows for Fri thru Sat night.

For Sunday thru Wednesday, days 4 to 7: Main fcst concerns this
period are continued SHRA/TSRA chance thru much of the period.

25.00Z/25.12Z medium range model runs in good agreement for a
stronger shortwave trough to be passing across the region Sun then
shortwave ridging to build across Mon. Models remain in
surprisingly good agreement for another strong shortwave trough
to move into the northern plains Tue and into the Upper Midwest
Wed. Given decent model agreement but sensible weather outcomes
dependent on difficult to predict meso-scale features, fcst
confidence for days 4-7 is average this cycle.

Sfc low thru mid level trough progged to slowly move east of the
region Sun. Continued SHRA/TSRA chances Sun, highest over the
northeast end of the fcst area, reasonable under deeper cyclonic
flow and cooler temps aloft. Mon would trend to be a dry day under a
weak sfc high pressure ridge and the shortwave ridging aloft.
However models showing plenty of lingering moisture over the area
along with returning lower level moisture transport/warm
advection ahead of the next low/troughing developing the plains.
Small consensus SHRA/TSRA chance on Mon okay for now. Lower level
moisture/forcing/lift would then continue increasing over the
region Tue in to Wed, ahead of the next stronger shortwave moving
east across the northern plains. Cannot argue against the
continued consensus SHRA/ TSRA chances out there on days 6/7.
General southwest flow aloft thru the period continues to support
Sun-Wed temps or two above normal. Model/ensemble consensus has
these well trended for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Fairly active weather through the next 24 hours. Currently watching
a mid-level trough and associated shra/ts moving northeast across
northeast IA/southeast Mn early this afternoon. This wave and
associated shra/thunder should clear the KRST/KLSE TAF sites by
early this evening. Another wave of low pressure moves through after
midnight into Thursday morning and is expected to bring in scattered
shra/ts activity. Will also have to contend with mvfr/occasional ifr
vis/cig conditions.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-
054-061-261200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-LA CROSSE-CRAWFORD-GRANT-
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HAIL TO 1/2
INCH...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-053-055-261200-
TAYLOR-CLARK-JACKSON-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-RICHLAND-
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PERIOD THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. MANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKER...WITH HAIL TO
1/2 INCH...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             CASTLE ROCK             43.05N 90.53W
05/25/2016  E0.25 INCH       GRANT              WI   PUBLIC

&&

DANB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
349 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             5 N BIG FLATS           44.18N 89.81W
05/25/2016  E0.88 INCH       ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             ADAMS                   43.96N 89.82W
05/25/2016  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ONE INCH SIZE HAIL IN ADAMS.

&&

MICHAELH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
403 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             ADAMS                   43.96N 89.82W
05/25/2016  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              WI   PUBLIC

            COVERED THE GROUND

&&

DANB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
409 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             MAUSTON                 43.80N 90.08W
05/25/2016  E1.25 INCH       JUNEAU             WI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC ESTIMATED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN MAUSTON. REPORT
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MICHAELH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
422 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIZ017-029-252200-
TAYLOR-CLARK-
422 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN TAYLOR AND
NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR STANLEY TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
FAIRCHILD. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THORP...JUMP
RIVER...RESEBURG...WITHEE...GILMAN...LUBLIN...EIDSVOLD...
HANNIBAL...JUNCTION...THE MILLER DAM FLOWAGE...THE BLUE
SWAMP...POLLEY...AND DONALD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4502 9053 4469 9092 4538 9092 4538 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 210DEG 30KT 4499 9099 4472 9091

DAS