Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS La Crosse, WI

549 
WWUS53 KARX 102114
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
414 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MNC157-WIC011-102215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160610T2215Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-
414 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABASHA AND BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF DURAND TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAZEPPA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 425 PM CDT. 
  WABASHA AROUND 455 PM CDT. 
  KELLOGG AROUND 500 PM CDT. 
  ALMA AROUND 510 PM CDT. 
  MODENA AROUND 515 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
WAUMANDEE...GILMANTON...WEST ALBANY...NELSON AND MAXVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4444 9243 4446 9241
      4445 9224 4441 9208 4456 9204 4459 9203
      4460 9200 4460 9153 4428 9153 4427 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 271DEG 25KT 4464 9180 4435 9244 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RIECK

226 
WWUS53 KARX 102124
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MNC157-WIC011-102215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160610T2215Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABASHA AND BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 424 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONDOVI TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAZEPPA...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 430 PM CDT. 
  WABASHA AROUND 455 PM CDT. 
  KELLOGG AROUND 505 PM CDT. 
  ALMA AND MODENA AROUND 515 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
WAUMANDEE...GILMANTON...WEST ALBANY...NELSON AND MAXVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4444 9243 4446 9241
      4445 9224 4441 9208 4456 9204 4459 9203
      4460 9200 4460 9153 4428 9153 4427 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 270DEG 25KT 4464 9172 4435 9236 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RIECK

391 
WWUS53 KARX 102143
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
443 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MNC157-WIC011-102215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160610T2215Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-
443 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABASHA AND BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONDOVI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEPIN...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. SPOTTERS REPORTED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN
         LAKE CITY AT 427 PM.         

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 450 PM CDT. 
  ALMA AROUND 515 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
WAUMANDEE...GILMANTON...WEST ALBANY...NELSON AND MAXVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4444 9243 4446 9241
      4445 9224 4441 9208 4456 9204 4459 9203
      4460 9200 4460 9153 4428 9153 4427 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 284DEG 30KT 4455 9159 4432 9230 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RIECK

780 
WWUS53 KARX 102200
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
500 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MNC157-WIC011-102215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160610T2215Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-
500 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABASHA AND BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR STRUM TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WABASHA...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN WABASHA AND BUFFALO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: WAUMANDEE...GILMANTON...WEST ALBANY...NELSON AND MAXVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4444 9243 4446 9241
      4445 9224 4441 9208 4456 9204 4459 9203
      4460 9200 4460 9153 4428 9153 4427 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 271DEG 25KT 4455 9145 4432 9216 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RIECK

646 
WWUS53 KARX 102214
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
514 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MNC157-WIC011-102224-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160610T2215Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-
514 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WABASHA AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4444 9243 4446 9241
      4445 9224 4441 9208 4456 9204 4459 9203
      4460 9200 4460 9153 4428 9153 4427 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 271DEG 25KT 4455 9145 4432 9216 

$$

RIECK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
302 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Impactful forecast over the next 6-12 hours, and as such much time
spent on this period. Early afternoon analysis places a surface warm
front mixed northward into central and northern WI, with a cold
front sliding through central MN at 18Z, associated with a ridge
running upper wave cutting across northern MN. Convection has been
bubbling along that cold front for a few hours now but continues to
expand as it intercepts a growing pool of 2500-3500 J/KG MUCAPE and
weak capping in place across much of the Upper Miss Valley. Per
current trends and well clustered suggestions from the majority of
CAM guidance, still expect current convection to grow in intensity
the next few hours, with the strongest deep shear relegated to
northern WI into central MN where some supercellular characteristics
are likely for a time, especially in the vicinity of the surface
warm front which looks to be just north and east of our local area.

However, with modest 0-3km westerly shear vectors of 20-30 knots and
pretty decent DCAPE profiles up to 1500 J/KG, envision storm
organization into more linear segments, with Corfidi vector analysis
suggesting any larger complex turning southeastward with time.
Activity may become enhanced along the leading outflow edge into
southeast MN with new cell growth into the very unstable and
weakly capped environment, with some worry that heavy rain
potential will increase for a time along the southern edge of the
line with such high PWAT values up to 1.75 inches and weak storm
motion/continued moisture transport over the boundary. Overall,
really like the look of the current SPC enhanced risk with the
biggest wind threat along/north of I-94 where the initial
convective line will be more aligned with the 0-3 km shear
vectors.

Still anticipate activity weakening into late evening/early
overnight with veering of the low level jet, with focus shifting to
tomorrow afternoon into northeast IA and far southwest WI. Pending
the position of the frontal boundary, there is some chance for
afternoon redevelopment in another higher CAPE/weak capping axis
over the far southern CWA, though shear looks rather paltry. Could
perhaps see a wind threat with DCAPE profiles. Should be another day
with hot temps and higher heat index values pushing 100 across the
south, but notably less humid northern areas with a drier airmass
rolling in from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Not much time spent on the outer periods, but the basic idea remains
for broad upper ridging to remain in place across much of the
central CONUS into the early work week period, with that pattern
becoming increasingly blocked up by midweek with strong closed lows
over both the northwest and northeast states. Yet another weakish
upper wave working over the ridge axis later Sunday into Sunday
evening should spark additional showers and storms across western MN
in the vicinity of another cold front dropping through that area,
with some of that activity likely to propagate eastward with time
into Sunday night and perhaps early Monday. Lots of questions
regarding how organized that activity might end up being, but with
another pool of strong instability in place, some stronger storms
aren't impossible, especially with hints of slightly better low
level shear in place.

Otherwise, there are some hints in the guidance that later Monday
into Tuesday may end up being mainly dry with low level ridging and
some drier air nosing in from Ontario, though there are questions
about just how far south said drier air will end up. Beyond that,
still good agreement for a closed low to meander through the blocked
up flow across the central Plains and toward our area by late week
with additional chances for rainfall and perhaps some cooler
temperatures pending cloud trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

Line of shra/ts slated to move across the region late this afternoon
through the mid to late evening hours. Strong to severe storm risk,
although greater across central MN/northern WI. For the taf sites,
expect heavy downpours, potential for hail, and enhanced winds
around any storm. Gusts upwards of 30 to 40kts not out of the
question. Cigs could stay vfr with the storms with mesomodels via
Bufkit soundings suggesting mostly 6-8 kft. Will go a bit lower than
that, but keep as vfr for now. Timing via the hrrr brings the line
in near 23z, sliding southeast by 03-04z or so. Looks reasonable.

With frontal boundary slipping south of the taf sites on
saturday...further shra/ts development possible from northern IA
into southern WI along this boundary sat afternoon/evening. Trends
keep the rain threat south of tafs and will keep forecast clear of
any shra/ts for saturday as a result.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION.....RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-111000-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 4 PM...MOVING QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SEVERE RISK WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT FROM 90 TO 100 DEGREES. USE
CAUTION WITH EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN COULD BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90 TO 100 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION WITH
EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
STORMS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM TODAY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.