River Flood Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

197 
WGUS83 KAPX 010229
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1029 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AND THE RIFLE 
RIVER NEAR STERLING...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation ON FRIDAY MORNING...OR as new 
information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-011429-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.160401T0222Z-160403T0224Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.160331T2325Z.160401T1800Z.160402T2024Z.NO/
1029 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Thursday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.9 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.3  Thu 09 PM       7.6     5.3     4.4


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-011429-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0006.160401T0600Z-160403T1500Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.160401T0600Z.160402T0600Z.160403T0900Z.NR/
1029 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* from late tonight to Sunday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Thursday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by early Saturday morning.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   14.9  Thu 09 PM      15.5    15.1    14.3


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

958 
WGUS83 KAPX 011422
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County
  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
WILL CONTINUE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN
AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation. The National
Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement on this
developing situation this evening as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-020222-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160403T0224Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.160331T2325Z.160401T1800Z.160402T2024Z.NO/
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet by this 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.4  Fri 09 AM       7.4     5.3     4.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-020222-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160403T2100Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.160401T0745Z.160402T1200Z.160403T1500Z.NR/
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.7 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.1  Fri 09 AM      15.6    15.4    14.4


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

839 
WGUS83 KAPX 020026
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
826 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
WILL CONTINUE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN
AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...


Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation SATURDAY MORNING...OR as new 
information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-021226-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160403T0224Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.160331T2325Z.160401T1430Z.160402T2024Z.NO/
826 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday evening.
* At  7:30 PM Friday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.9  Fri 07 PM       5.3     4.4     4.0


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-021226-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160403T2100Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.160401T0745Z.160402T1200Z.160403T1500Z.NR/
826 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  7:30 PM Friday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.3  Fri 07 PM      15.3    14.4    13.7


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

JZ

983 
WGUS83 KAPX 021358
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK 
WILL CONTINUE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN
AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation. The National Weather
Service in Gaylord will issue another statement on this situation tonight
as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-030158-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160403T0336Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.160331T2325Z.160401T1430Z.160402T2136Z.NO/
958 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until this evening.
* At  9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 6.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sun     Mon     Tue

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.9  Sat 09 AM       5.4     4.6     4.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-030158-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160403T1500Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.160401T0745Z.160402T0900Z.160403T0900Z.NR/
958 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until Sunday morning.
* At  9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.3 by this 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flooding begins around the Wilderness Canoe 
  livery along left bank of river just downstream of M-37 bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sun     Mon     Tue

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.3  Sat 09 AM      15.1    14.3    13.8


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

758 
WGUS83 KAPX 030405
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

...The flood warning has expired for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River  Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

&&

MIC011-030435-
/O.EXP.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160403T0336Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.160331T2325Z.160401T1430Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1205 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

The Flood Warning has expired for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At 11:30 PM Saturday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Mon     Tue     Wed

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.9  Sat 11 PM       4.6     4.3     4.0


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

IMPACT WEATHER: MORE RAIN...LESS THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. RAIN CHANGING TO A LITTLE MINOR LIGHT SNOW/MIX
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. NO SEVERE
WEATHER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY BACK TO THE DESERT SW. ONE SMALLISH
SHORTWAVE/VORT ENERGY IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION ATTM WITH A SURGE
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER A FRONTAL ZONE THAT
DISSECTS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WE DO NOT SEEMINGLY HAVE THE DOUBLE JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT THAT WAS EXPECTED EARLIER...BUT WE DO HAVE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE OF A JET ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
THE RESULT IS A LARGE SWATH OF RENEWED RAINS OVER ALL OF NRN
LOWER...WITH SOME RAIN PUSHING INTO MACKINAC/SRN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES
OF EASTERN UPPER. THERE WAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS...WHILE A STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED WAVE WAS SEEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WAS ALSO SPARKING SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION TOWARD THE LOWER HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO AS
MILD AS THE LOWER 50S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE HEAVIER RAINFALL ATTM IS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING FGEN
STRETCHED FROM THE LEELANAU PENINSULA THROUGH FAR NRN LOWER. AS THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTS LIFTING NE TOWARD
US TODAY....UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK...AND SHOVE THIS BETTER
RAINFALL UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STEADY RAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN LOWER WILL EXIT EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CURRENT FORCING. THAT WILL OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY 10Z-
14Z FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...AM
EXPECTING CONTINUED RAINS...BUT OF THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE VARIETY
AND MUCH LESS QPF. THE STRONGER WAVE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DO LIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THIS IS WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS PRIMARILY NRN LOWER...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALOFT. AFTER SOME REMNANT RAINS EXIT THIS EVENING...RAINFALL
WILL BE DONE. QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE IN THE 0.80" TO 1.2" RANGE FOR
MOST. PRETTY WET...BUT MAYBE NOT REALLY "HEAVY". FOR TONIGHT...AS
THE RAIN/LOW PRESSURE EXIT THIS EVENING...SOME COLDER AIR STARTS
FILLING INTO THE REGION AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWS
COME INTO THE PICTURE ACROSS THE NW CWA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. AT MOST...NEARING AN INCH ACROSS FAR NW CHIPPEWA
COUNTY. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WITH A WIDE RANGE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN EASTERN UPPER TO THE NEAR 60F CLOSE TO
THE SAGINAW BAY. LOWS TONIGHT MOST ALL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...HERE COMES THE COLD AND SNOW...

FULL SCALE PATTERN SHIFT ON THE WAY AS WESTERN RIDGING DOMINATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LUCKY US). UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OF THE
ACCUMULATING VARIETY. SO BUCKLE UP SPRING BREAKERS...IT'S BOUND TO
BE A BUMPY RIDE FOR THOSE LEFT BEHIND UP HERE IN THE NORTH WOODS
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
NUMEROUS...BUT REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON IN THE MORNING WITH THE POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG WITH MARGINAL OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (DELTA TS JUST UNDER THE 13 C THRESHOLD AT BETWEEN
10 AND 11C). SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
CAN BE EXPECTED...FROM A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN (WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT COATING) TO ALL
RAIN NEAR THE SHORELINES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS A LITTLE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE FROM AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM (SEE BELOW). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...A MUCH STRONGER ALBERTA CLIPPER IS STILL SHOWN TO DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE BRIEFLY THROUGH THE ROOF (INVERSION
HEIGHTS TO 18K)...SO ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE WITH SNOW
SQUALLS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES LIKELY. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REALLY CRACK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 30 MPH...SO...IT COULD GET A LITTLE SQUIRRELLY FOR A WHILE.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF A BIT AND RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH NORTH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTH. HIGH EARLY APRIL
SUN ANGLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS ON
ROADWAYS BUT COULD DEFINITELY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY/METALLIC SURFACES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SNOW SHOULD END IN THE EVENING LEAVING PERHAPS
SOME NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IN FAVORED LOCALS (NEAR
TRAVERSE CITY AND WHITEFISH POINT). LOWS IN THE CHILLY MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH WHICH RESULTS IN A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) WITH QPF RANGING FROM
AROUND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS NORTH TO CLOSE TO A HALF INCH SOUTH AND IT
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. PLUS IT MAY EVEN BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH TO REALIZE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF OFF LAKE HURON. SOMETHING
TO BE WATCHED FOR SURE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK OF THE NEXT IN
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR SNOW) BUT I WOULD
SIDE WITH THE SNOW SCENARIO AS THE COLD AIR IS STILL FAIRLY WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO CONTINUED RIDGING
OUT IN THE WESTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME (SORRY).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF APN BY 14Z
OR SO...WITH JUST SOME SPORADIC SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE IN
IT'S WAKE THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BRINGING THE NEXT
BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINS. THESE RAINS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST AT PLN. ISOLATED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LARGELY BE IFR/LOW END MVFR...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING
THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSE TO
OVERHEAD...IF ANYTHING STEADY IN DIRECTION...IT WOULD BE FROM THE
N/NE AND UNDER 10KTS. SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AT MBL LATE TODAY
HOWEVER. WINDS SETTLE OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHARP STABILITY OVER THE LAKES IS PREVENTING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO MAKE IT TO THE WATER SFC. THIS WILL CHANGE HEADING THROUGH
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A SFC LOW LIFTS UP THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER
AND WINDS TURN NE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND START DIMINISHING THE
STABILITY WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS PROCESS OCCURS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER NEARSHORES AND
WHITEFISH BAY SEEING INCREASED WINDS. SPEEDS JUST TAP LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS AND HAVE ISSUED THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES. WINDS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE HIGHER PRESSURE...THEN
RAMP BACK UP TO NEW ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE GALES BEHIND A POTENT
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH RENEWED RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NRN NEARSHORES. BURST OF SNOW SATURDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING POTENT SYSTEM.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-010800-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
355 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STEADY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING...ONLY TO GET
REVAMPED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE
STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR. MINOR FLOODING BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE AS
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW...BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

ONLINE:    WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD
TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

SMD/AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
742 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BOYNE CITY              45.18N 84.96W
03/31/2016  M1.23 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HR TOTAL.

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
847 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ENE ARCADIA           44.53N 86.13W
03/31/2016  M1.40 INCH       BENZIE             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BEULAH 7SSW /BEUM4/

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S BENZONIA            44.54N 86.11W
03/31/2016  M1.37 INCH       BENZIE             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION BENZONIA 5.3 S /MI-BZ-1/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CHARLEVOIX              45.32N 85.27W
03/31/2016  M1.33 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CHARLEVOIX /CHRM4/

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW TRAVERSE CITY     44.76N 85.64W
03/31/2016  M1.27 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION TRAVERSE CITY MUNSON
            /TCMM4/

0840 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANCELONA               44.90N 85.07W
03/31/2016  M1.23 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MANCELONA /D3512/

0835 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE GAYLORD           44.99N 84.66W
03/31/2016  M1.23 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 SSE GAYLORD /D3024/

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW IRONTON           45.26N 85.22W
03/31/2016  M1.22 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CHARLEVOIX 4.3 SSE
            /MI-CX-4/

0755 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E PARKDALE            44.27N 86.25W
03/31/2016  M1.20 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION MANISTEE COUNTY-BLACKER AIRPORT
            /MBL/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW EAST JORDAN       45.19N 85.15W
03/31/2016  M1.20 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION 2 NNW EAST JORDAN
            /EJNM4/

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W OMENA               45.06N 85.65W
03/31/2016  M1.19 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NORTHPORT 5.0 SSW /MI-LL-1/

0837 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW LEWISTON          44.89N 84.36W
03/31/2016  M1.18 INCH       MONTMORENCY        MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 W LEWISTON /AU550/

0728 AM     HEAVY RAIN       13 NW LELAND            45.12N 85.98W
03/31/2016  M1.17 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 12 WNW LELAND /NMIM4/

0836 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW MANISTEE          44.23N 86.34W
03/31/2016  M1.14 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 SSW MANISTEE /D9113/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE BINGHAM            44.88N 85.68W
03/31/2016  M1.13 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION NW MICHIGAN RES FARM
            /NWFM4/

0836 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE PETOSKEY          45.36N 84.95W
03/31/2016  M1.12 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 SSW BAY VIEW /AS614/

0839 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW EAST JORDAN       45.19N 85.15W
03/31/2016  M1.11 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 NNW EAST JORDAN /C2615/

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S ELK RAPIDS          44.85N 85.42W
03/31/2016  M1.10 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION 6 N WILLIAMSBURG
            /WMOM4/

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW IRONTON           45.26N 85.22W
03/31/2016  M1.10 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION IRONTON /D7501/

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTHPORT               45.13N 85.62W
03/31/2016  M1.09 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NORTHPORT 0.1 SW /MI-LL-3/

0753 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE TRAVERSE CITY      44.74N 85.58W
03/31/2016  M1.06 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT /TVC/

0812 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S INDIAN RIVER        45.38N 84.63W
03/31/2016  M1.03 INCH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3 SSW INDIAN RIVER /INDM4/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
03/31/2016  M1.01 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION 9 SSW GAYLORD /APXM4/

0804 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW RAPID CITY         44.85N 85.31W
03/31/2016  M1.00 INCH       KALKASKA           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 WNW RAPID CITY /D5590/

0754 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S CATHRO              45.08N 83.56W
03/31/2016  M1.00 INCH       ALPENA             MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION PHELPS COLLINS FIELD /APN/

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW BOYNE CITY        45.21N 85.01W
03/31/2016  M1.27 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION 3 WNW BOYNE CITY /MI-CX-3/

0935 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE GAYLORD           44.99N 84.66W
03/31/2016  M1.25 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 SSE GAYLORD /D3024/

0940 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANCELONA               44.90N 85.07W
03/31/2016  M1.23 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MANCELONA /D3512/

0937 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW LEWISTON          44.89N 84.36W
03/31/2016  M1.22 INCH       MONTMORENCY        MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 W LEWISTON /AU550/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW EAST JORDAN       45.19N 85.15W
03/31/2016  M1.20 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION EAST JORDAN 2.1 NNW
            /MI-CX-7/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE MANCELONA         44.90N 85.05W
03/31/2016  M1.18 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MANCELONA 0.5 ESE /MI-AT-6/

0928 AM     HEAVY RAIN       13 NW LELAND            45.12N 85.98W
03/31/2016  M1.17 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 12 WNW LELAND /NMIM4/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROGERS CITY             45.42N 83.81W
03/31/2016  M1.16 INCH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION ROGERS CITY 0.2 WSW
            /MI-PI-1/

0936 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW MANISTEE          44.23N 86.34W
03/31/2016  M1.15 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 SSW MANISTEE /D9113/

0939 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW EAST JORDAN       45.19N 85.15W
03/31/2016  M1.14 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 NNW EAST JORDAN /C2615/

0936 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE PETOSKEY          45.36N 84.95W
03/31/2016  M1.12 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 SSW BAY VIEW /AS614/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE PETOSKEY          45.36N 84.95W
03/31/2016  M1.11 INCH       EMMET              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PETOSKEY NCMC /PTYM4/

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE KINGSLEY          44.60N 85.48W
03/31/2016  M1.11 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION KINGSLEY 2.7 ENE /MI-GT-21/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MAPLETON            44.92N 85.52W
03/31/2016  M1.10 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION OLD MISSION 3SSW
            /OMSM4/

0938 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW IRONTON           45.26N 85.22W
03/31/2016  M1.10 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION IRONTON /D7501/

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW ROGERS CITY        45.41N 83.81W
03/31/2016  M1.07 INCH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ROGERS CITY #2
            /RGCM4/

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S INDIAN RIVER        45.38N 84.63W
03/31/2016  M1.04 INCH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3 SSW INDIAN RIVER /INDM4/

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
03/31/2016  M1.01 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 WNW WATERS /GLRM4R2/

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW HARTWICK PINES ST 44.72N 84.71W
03/31/2016  M1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3 SSW HARTWICK PINES STATE
            PARK /GYGM4/

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM