Frost Advisory 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

966 
WWUS73 KAPX 180229
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1029 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

MIZ016>036-181030-
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.W.0003.160518T0600Z-160518T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY
1029 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...REACHING
  THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION AND FLOWERING PLANTS MAY BE 
  DAMAGED OR KILLED BY THESE TEMPERATURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

MIZ041-042-181030-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0004.160518T0600Z-160518T1200Z/
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1029 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 32 TO 36 DEGREE 
  RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION AND FLOWERING PLANTS MAY BE 
  DAMAGED OR KILLED BY THESE TEMPERATURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

MSB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016

IMPACTS: Frost and freeze temperatures tonight.

Synoptic pattern and observations: Northern Michigan has been swept
over with some pretty dry air, behind a departing cold front in far
southern lower Michigan, and in advance of sfc high pressure sitting
near the arrowhead of MN. Some scattered high-based cumulus out
there with deep mixing and dew points dropping off into the 20s in
most locations. Quite the dry low levels.

Synoptic pattern and evolution:

The sfc high pressure will slowly slide in over the top of nrn
Michigan late tonight into Wednesday. The atmosphere will remain dry
with only some periodic cloudiness. A batch of deeper moisture was
poised over eastern Ontario and Quebec, mixed out from daytime
heating. As night falls, some of this moisture could morph into some
mid level clouds overnight across parts of eastern upper and NE
lower. Whatever does develop, we should see a similar scenario as we
did this morning, these clouds mix out and redevelop into scattered
cumulus.

The well mixed BL will bring some frost/freeze temperatures again
tonight. Afternoon dew points down into the mid/upper 20s are likely
to result in 35 (or more) diurnal swings. We will most certainly see
a large range in low temps, with the coldest low lying areas down
into the upper half of the 20s, and the least cold locales being the
immediate coastal areas of NE lower (in slightly better gradient) in
the upper half of the 30s. All-in-all, folks and agricultural
interests will want to take the appropriate steps to protect
sensitive vegetation.

Highs Wednesday will be slightly warmer, into the middle 60s most
areas. Cooler lakeshores where lake breezes reside.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016

...Wednesday night through Friday...

Upper level trough will finally push east of Michigan Wednesday
night, but not in time to preclude one more night of freezing temps
for Northern Michigan. While our low level airmass overhead does
begin to slowly moderate by Wednesday night as the heart of the cold
air slides east of michigan with the upper level trough axis, expect
enough cold air will remain in place to set the stage for another
night of low temps falling to a couple of degrees either side of
freezing. Clear skies and calm winds under the strong surface high
center will certainly aid in this endeavor. Will keep areas of frost
in the forecast for much of Nrn Lwr Michigan late Wednesday night,
and will assess the need for additional frost/freeze headlines
tomorrow.

Surface high center will remain over the the Great Lakes region
Thursday thru Friday, extending our period of dry wx thru the end of
the work week (at least). Expect clear skies and a generally light
wind regime, with a very slow warming trend. Airmass overhead will
continue to slowly moderate as 850 mb temps warm from +3 C on
Thursday to +6 C by Friday. Surface temps will follow suite. High
temps in the mid 60s to around 70 on Thursday will edge upward just
a bit to highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s by Friday. Thursday
night should be "freeze-free", with overnight lows mainly in the
lower 40s.

...Friday night through Tuesday...

Blocky, non-progressive pattern through the extended. We will remain
under high pressure through mid-week next week keeping us warm and
dry with mostly clear skies. Winds will be on the lighter side, but
the warm temps and low rh could lead to some fire weather concerns.
Blended guidance seems a bit high on dewpoints, so lowered them a
bit in conjunction with surrounding offices. Temperatures will be
nearly 10 degrees above normal.

MAYHEW

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016

A center of high pressure will slowly work its way down into
northern Michigan and hold through Wednesday. A weakish northerly
flow will trend more toward lake breezes with periodic gusts through
the remainder of this afternoon. Weak winds continue tomorrow with
lake breeze development again...but gusts are not really expected.
The atmosphere is quite dry...and just some scattered high-based
cu each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016

A center of high pressure will slowly work its way down into
northern Michigan and hold through the remainder of the work week.
Winds will be light, generally under 10 kts, with lake breezes each
afternoon. The atmosphere is quite dry, and just some periodic
clouds will occur, and no rainfall.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>036.

     FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...MLR/Mayhew
AVIATION...Dickson
MARINE...Dickson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-181200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
646 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE INTERIOR OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

JZ