Storm Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

254 
FZAK52 PAJK 210711 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA. 

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 65 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 65 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN LATE.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1011 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

754 
FZAK52 PAJK 211233
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...972 MB LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AK
GULF THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND AK GULF THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
RAIN. 925 MB LOW LEVEL JET CORE OF 60 KTS ORIENTED ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS, BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN LOWS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING UNDER THE JET CORE,
BUT FOR NOW ONLY EXPECT THE STORM FORCE WINDS TO HI THE SOUTHERN
GULF. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD IT AND ITS FRONT WILL WEAKEN SO
WINDS ONLY EXPECT TO REACH MAX GALES FOR THE REST OF THE GULF. AS
THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO FURTHER OFF SHORE EXPECT STRONG WINDS FOR
THE SOUTH COASTAL PANHANDLE BUT GUSTS ONLY NEAT 40 TO 45 MPH.
INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SOUTHERN GALES FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CANADA AND THE GULF LOW. NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT. SKAGWAY STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT MORE FORM
THERMAL GRADIENT WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OVER THE YUKON
AND LOW TO MID 30S OVER SKAGWAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR MASS TO
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES DOWNSLOPE. FOR JUNEAU SET UP FOR WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GOOD CROSS BARRIER FLOW, 850MB INVERSION IS FAIR WITH ONLY
CRITICAL LEVEL NOT SHOWING THE OPTIMAL DIRECTION CHANGE BUT ONLY
SPEED CHANGE AT 500 MB. SO FOR NOW ONLY EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO HIT
40 TO 45 MPH.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAINES
AND SKAGWAY WILL ALSO WARM UP ENOUGH THURSDAY TO HAVE MORE RAIN
MIX IN THE THE SNOW. KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BUT ONLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WIND AND PRECIP AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PULL NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT WILL RISE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH
THE DAY.

NAM INITIALIZED WELL COMPARING SURFACE FEATURES ON IR SATELLITE.
ECMWF WAS A SLIGHT OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM FOR
DEPICTION OF THE LOW CENTER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
12Z RUNS WERE STILL VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS. USED SOME 12Z
NAM TO REFRESH WIND FIELDS OVER THE GULF BUT OVERALL CHANGES WERE
VERY MINOR. STARTING TO SEE SOME WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII NOT PICKED UP BY EARLIER MODELS BUT
FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING THIS TO CAUSE MUCH IMPACT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. BY
SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN FACT, THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS FILLED WITH A CONTINUAL SERIES
OF LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF WITH THEIR FRONTS OR
TROUGHS ROTATING PRECIPITATION NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW PROMISES NO COLD LOW LEVEL AIR, SO
PRECIP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, THE
HIGHWAYS, AND POSSIBLY HYDER.

EACH SUCCESSIVE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SEAS 8 FEET OR GREATER FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS WELL. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS
WELL, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COINCIDING WITH FRONTS OR TROUGHS
THAT PASS BY CLOSER TO THE OUTER COAST.

UPDATED THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH A NAM/EC
BLEND FOR WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE GULF. RETAINED INHERITED WIND
SPEEDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THIS FAIRLY
STABLE PATTERN, SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>036-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-053.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU