Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Juneau, AK

597 
FZAK51 PAJK 061708 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-070100-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PERSIST WHILE A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE
GAP WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THU. 

$$

PKZ011-070100-
GLACIER BAY-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-070100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR TAIYA INLET.
OTHERWISE...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE NEAR TAIYA
INLET. OTHERWISE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-070100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-070100-
ICY STRAIT-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-070100-
CROSS SOUND-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-070100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-070100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-070100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-070100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-070100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR EASTERN END. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR EASTERN END. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. HIGHEST WINDS EAST OF
ZAREMBO ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-070100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
808 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF EASTERN PASSES. SEAS 3
FT...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF EASTERN PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
208 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE MAIN STORY IS A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
BY PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST
MOUNTAINS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. HAVE DECREASED WINDS IN LYNN CANAL OUTSIDE OF
TAIYA INLET DUE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE LACK OF COLD AIR IN CANADA
DRIVING THE NORTHERLY WINDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CANAL. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT NEAR TAIYA INLET WHERE THE SKAGWAY
AIRPORT HAS BEEN GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SKAGWAY TO TESLIN, YUKON IS 11 MB EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AIDING IN THESE STRONG WINDS. EXPECT THIS GRADIENT
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EVEN STRENGTHEN SOME
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
THINKING IS THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN BELOW RIDGE TOP RESULTING
IN WINDS STAYING ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE
MOVES THROUGH. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...AND TENAKEE
INLET. AM NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS.

USED THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WRN CANADA THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEAK ELY WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE ERN GULF
ON THU...BUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY OFFSHORE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT FROM
SKAGWAY NWD WED NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TIGHT GRADIENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BUILD S OVER LYNN CANAL...THUS LIMITED WINDS OVER THE
NRN CANAL TO SMALL CRAFT/25 KT OR LESS.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
FRI/SAT...WHILE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSES E OVER THE
GULF...REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOW/RAIN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE...AS
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH/BREAK DOWN THE
CANADIAN RIDGE.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH AN EC/NAM BLEND...TRANSITIONING
TO WPC FROM SAT ONWARD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH
AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WERE NECESSARY...THOUGH THIS DID NOT RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-031.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.

&&

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU