High Wind Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

182 
WWAK77 PAJK 040700
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1100 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

AKZ027-028-041500-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.161104T1800Z-161105T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1100 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...SOUTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
  INCLUDING HYDABURG...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...EDNA
  BAY...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...COFFMAN COVE...THORNE
  BAY...HOLLIS...KASAAN...SAXMAN

* WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND
  POSSIBLE LOSS OF POWER. POORLY MOORED BOATS COULD BREAK LOOSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. MARINERS SHOULD
DOUBLE UP LINES AND AIRCRAFT OWNERS SHOULD DOUBLE CHECK ALL TIE-
DOWNS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

183 
WWAK77 PAJK 041433
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
633 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

AKZ027-028-042000-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.161104T1800Z-161105T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
633 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...SOUTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

* WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND 
  POSSIBLE LOSS OF POWER. POORLY MOORED BOATS COULD BREAK LOOSE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. MARINERS SHOULD
DOUBLE UP LINES AND AIRCRAFT OWNERS SHOULD DOUBLE CHECK ALL TIE-
DOWNS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

442 
WWAK77 PAJK 041944
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1144 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016


AKZ027-028-050000-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-161105T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1144 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...SOUTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN INNER 
  CHANNELS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A PEAK GUST
  OF 60 MPH HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE KETCHIKAN AIRPORT AND A PEAK
  GUST OF 66 MPH WAS MEASURED AT LINCOLN ISLAND SO FAR THIS
  MORNING.

* TIMING...WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
  AFTERNOON FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND LOSS
  OF POWER. MOORED BOATS COULD BREAK LOOSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. MARINERS SHOULD
DOUBLE UP LINES AND AIRCRAFT OWNERS SHOULD DOUBLE CHECK ALL TIE-
DOWNS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

599 
WWAK77 PAJK 042346
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

AKZ027-028-050100-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-161105T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
346 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT
TIMES. KETCHIKAN AIRPORT REPORTED PEAK GUSTS TO 64 MPH JUST AFTER
NOON WHILE ANNETTE AIRPORT REPORTED 60 MPH JUST AFTER 10 AM THIS
MORNING. IN METLAKATLA WIND REMOVED SOME SIDING OFF THE SWIMMING
POOL BUILDING. POWER OUTAGES IN METLAKATLA WERE ALSO REPORTED.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
534 AM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...A complex storm force low over the SE gulf will move
NNW into the NE gulf this afternoon while slowly weakening. The
low will dissipate by late tonight along the N gulf coast. Another
low will develop and move N to just W of Haida Gwaii by late
tonight. Used blend of the 00z GFS and EC to handle the main
features through tonight.

Wind will be the big story today along with some TSTMS. Keeping
high wind warning (HWW) going for zones 27 and 28 through 15z
this morning as core of strongest winds on E side of the low
complex moves past that area. Have storm warning for adjacent
marine zones this morning. There will be another strong wind band
moving into the SE gulf late this morning then the E-central gulf
in the afternoon as weakening second wrap of front moves in. This
band looks weaker than the current one affecting the S so once the
HWW expires, strong wind headlines will likely be needed for zones
27 and 28 through afternoon. Have strong winds for 26 mainly this
morning and 23/25 for this afternoon. Have gales for much of the
central inner channels during this afternoon as the second wrap
and moves inland. Winds over the S will diminish further this
afternoon and evening, while winds over the central area diminish
this evening. The far N will see SCA level N winds mainly this
morning, then a period of SCA level S winds late this afternoon
and evening. Winds will increase again over the S late tonight
ahead of the next low moving in.

TSTMS are occurring in bands associated with vort lobes rotating
around complex low over the E gulf. Basically they are to the E
of the low complex where coldest air aloft is, and affect much of
the E third of the gulf and outer coast. As low complex moves N,
the area of TSTMS should decrease as warmer air aloft moves in
from the SW. Think the TSTMS should be done for the most part by
early evening as upper vort features weaken.

Otherwise, showers will be the rule across the area today. The
showers should diminish from S to N late this afternoon and
tonight as low level flow turns offshore ahead of next low
approaching from the S. Think the break in the precip will be
longer as you go N in between systems. Steadier rain with the
next low should spread N into the southern panhandle by late
evening and be as far N as the Frederick Sound area late tonight.

The only mention of snow will be limited to higher elevations of
the far N. Could see 2-4 inches near White Pass today then
another inch or so tonight.

.LONG TERM...The low mentioned above will move north into the
northeast gulf by Friday night. Favorable upper level dynamics
with a 130 kt southerly jet overhead will aid in deepening the
low to between 970 and 975 mb on Friday afternoon. A strong low
level jet with 70-75 kt at 925 mb will result in another period of
significant wind for much the area. Strongest winds will again be
across the southern panhandle. Another high wind warning may be
needed for Friday afternoon and Friday evening for both Prince of
Wales island and the Ketchikan area. As was the case with the low
currently affecting the panhandle, models are struggling with some
key details in the evolution and structure of this system. The NAM
is 6 hours faster than other model guidance so it was discounted
for this forecast package. Subtle differences in the timing will
have major impacts with this system as it will determine when
winds shift from north to south through the inner channels.
Current indications are this system will weaken rapidly as it
tracks inland just north of Cross Sound early Saturday morning.
Based upon this track, made significant changes to the forecast
with southerly winds spreading northward through the inner
channels, reaching Northern Lynn Canal on Saturday after the low
moves inland. Again, any deviation in the track of the system will
result in significant changes to portions of the forecast.
Rainfall amounts will generally range from around half an inch to
an inch.

The remainder of the long range period remains active with periods
of wind and rain affecting the panhandle every other day.

After coordination with the short term forecaster and the
Anchorage office, opted to use a 00z GFS/EC blend through day 4.
Maintained previous forecast thereafter with 12z WPC guidance.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ023-025.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>035-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-032.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052-053.
&&

RWT/TPS

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