Gale Warning 21, NWS Juneau, AK

227 
FZAK52 PAJK 011233
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-020100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRI. A
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SW FRI
NIGHT AND INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SAT. 

$$

PKZ041-020100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-020100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-020100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-020100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-020100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SE SWELL IN THE
MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THU AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD CYCLONE POSITIONED OVER
THE WRN ALEUTIANS...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM THE NERN PAC
ACROSS BC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING NE FROM THE NERN GULF TO NWRN
CANADA...WHICH IS AIDING IN SHIFTING A GALE FORCE FRONT EWD TOWARD
THE CNTRL PANHANDLE COAST...WHERE IT WILL STALL/WASH OUT TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A 955 MB SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ADVANCE N TOWARD THE
WRN TIP OF THE AK PENINSULA THROUGH FRI...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT ENTERS THE CNTRL GULF BY 00Z SAT.

FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND LOCATED FROM AKZ018 S TO THE SERN GULF
IS CONTRACTING AND SHOWING SIGNS OF DISORGANIZING /PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY/ AS IT MOVES PROGRESSIVELY CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
BC. BY TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE. FARTHER N...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING...ARE AIDING IN POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FROM
3-5 INCHES. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY EARLY THU EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED S/W EXITS
INTO THE YUKON.

GOING INTO FRI...LOW-LEVEL SELYS STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL REFOCUS GREATEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE. GALES WILL ALSO REDEVELOP
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF...WHILE CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OVER CLARENCE STRAIT /DUE TO PERSISTENTLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT...DESPITE FRONTOLYSIS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT LOCATIONS FROM SITKA TO HYDABURG COULD FLIRT WITH
STRONG WIND CRITERIA...AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN JUNEAU THIS EVENING...GIVEN PEAK SPEEDS OF 80-90 KT
ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED AT SHEEP MOUNTAIN.

UPDATES TO INHERITED GRIDS WERE MADE USING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH.

.LONG TERM...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHIFTS
TO A SOUTHWEST AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY. THROUGH THIS
PATTERN THERE ARE 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVE FEATURES OR CLOSED LOWS
MOVING ACROSS OR AWAY FOR THE GULF. A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE
GULF MOVES OFF TOWARDS CALIFORNIA COAST. DURING MONDAY, ANOTHER
IMPULSE MOVES IN THE MAIN FLOW PATTER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
EXTENDING THE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARDS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA PERSISTS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING SOUTHEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK.

SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AS A
GENERALLY CONSISTENT JET STREAM OF 140 TO 160+ WITH A CORE OR TWO
REACHING 180 KT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVING THE SYSTEMS
QUICKLY EAST. THE MAIN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET FLOWS FROM JAPAN
TO THE BAJA OF MEXICO. THE NORTHERN STREAM SPLITS OFF
OCCASIONALLY AROUND 160W TURNING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN THAT WILL TAPER
OFF FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND LOCALLY BREEZY ACROSS THE INSIDE WINDS
CALMING DOWN FOR SATURDAY.

USED WPC WHICH WAS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME THROUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS RATHER CLOSE TO THIS
ALREADY. THROUGH THE MID RANGE THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AND THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE SMALL.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025-027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-053.

&&

GARNER/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU