Wind Advisory 42, NWS Fairbanks, AK

866 
WWAK73 PAFG 220626
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1026 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

AKZ226-220730-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-160922T1400Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
1026 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
minimal in the short range and is reasonable in both the mid term
and long term.

Aloft, at 500 hpa a long wave trough with a 519 DAM low near St
Matthew Island continue to dig south and east to be located near
Cape Newenham this evening and will elongate from near Nunivak
Island to near Galena as a 521 DAM low thursday evening. A 507 DAM
low moves south along the dateline to just west of Wrangel Island
Thursday evening. A 570 DAM ridge continues to drift east over the
Alaska Panhandle into British Columbia through Thursday. Strong
winds through the column along the back side of the ridge are
contributing to ongoing high wind warnings over the central and
eastern Alaska range but as the strongest winds push to the east
the winds are expected to diminish later this evening.

Textbook mountain wave signature on the model vertical cross
sections with 80 kts at mountain top level and critical layer
above as well as strong vertical motion indicated. 70 to 80 mph
wind gusts verified with a peak gust to 89 mph at Edge Creek. Peak
winds continue to weaken but remain over warning levels and are
expected to remain above warning criteria through this evening.
Winds through the column continue to decrease and peak winds will
decrease as mountain wave weakens this evening.

On the surface, a 991 mb low over the northern gulf of Alaska
will continue to move north and strengthen and will be located
over Valdez as a 981 mb low Thursday morning and over Fairbanks
Thursday afternoon as a 977 mb. The low will continue to move
north and elongate along a Bettles to Demarcation Point line as a
978 mb low. Favorable upper level conditions will enhance
precipitation over the central and eastern Brooks Range. The model
suite has been and continues to be consistent in devloping warning
level snow beginning late Thursday afternoon through Friday
evening for zones 218 above 2000 feet and in zones 205 east of
Howard Pass and for most of zone 206. Expect 24 hour snow fall
totals in the 6 to 12 inch range. Travel along the Dalton Highway
through the Brooks Range especially over Atigun Pass will become
difficult beginning Thursday evening and will continue through
Friday evening. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for these
areas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ222.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ218.
&&

CCC SEP 16