Gale Warning 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

510 
FZAK51 PAFG 192110 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-200415-
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF
ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ225-200415-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.  
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-200415-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-200415-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-200415-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-200415-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
1210 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

NTS JAN 16

165 
FZAK51 PAFG 192325
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-201215-
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH
OF THE COAST THU. A WEATHER FRONT OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THU. 

$$

PKZ225-201215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-201215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-201215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-201215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-201215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WITH RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND THEN RETROGRADE WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWEST OVER ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE NW OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING LIGHT SNOW WITH THEM
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE THE
INTERIOR WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -2C IN THE SW INTERIOR TO -22C
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WED.

SURFACE....
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THIS WILL
CAUSE NE WINDS 10 KT AND AREAS OF FLURRIES AND FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH SLOPE FROM BARROW EAST. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING NE WINDS
40KT ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG
POINT HOPE TO GAMBELL AREA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH TUE.

AN OCCLUDED WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING FROM GLENNALLEN TO DAWSON
WILL MOVE TO DENALI TO EAGLE BY 3AM TUE...TO MCGRATH TO OLD CROW
BY 3PM TUE...BY HOLY CROSS TO OLD CROW BY 3AM WED...TO ANVIK TO
OLD CROW BY 3PM WED AND THEN DISSIPATING. LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURING
WITH THIS NOW OVER THE SE INTERIOR AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AREAS THAT DO
GET SNOW. SNOW PROBABILITY WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE WED. EXPECT
EAST WINDS OVER UPLAND AREA TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT WITH BLOWING SNOW OVER
INTERIOR SUMMITS. THOSE WINDS WILL DECREASE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS.

A SECOND FRONT NOW OVER SE ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE SE INTERIOR BY
WED AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3AM
TUE. AFTER THAT THE NAM TAKES MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION FURTHER
NW THAN THE GFS DOES. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION AS MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA NOW IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE MOVING NW UNTIL IT REACHES THE
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES FROM BARTER ISLAND TO THE
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB JAN 16