Gale Warning 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

561 
FZAK52 PAFC 041301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050215-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW 360 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 135 NM SOUTHWEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 1020 MB MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A 1012 MB LOW
FORMS 170 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY MON MORNING AND MOVES TO 120 NM
EAST OF CHIGNIK AT 1015 MB TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-050215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-050215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10
KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 17 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-050215-
BRISTOL BAY-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE WESTERN CAPES. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-050215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT FROM PORT
MOLLER E. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-050215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-050215-
UNALASKA BAY-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-050215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-050215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-050215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-050215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-050215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-050215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ178-050215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ179-050215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-050215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-050215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-050215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
401 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Sat Dec 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
With low pressure over the Gulf and cold air advection moving
through Southcentral Alaska there are widespread outflow winds
over Southcentral. Out over the eastern Bering, ridging is slowly
moving towards the west coast which is aiding in the cold
northerly flow over the state and helping to clear out cloud cover
over the southern mainland. Another low has moved in over the
western Bering with its associated front moving through the
Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent agreement with the main synoptic
features. Even though they are handling the main features well
there are still some issue with timing and intensity of the
outflow winds, especially in channeled areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Cold air advection is helping to create gusty outflow
winds over the area that look to last through the afternoon when
the cold air advection stops. However, the northerly winds will
continue into tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Offshore winds and cold advection will continue today and tonight
with a surface low pressure in the gulf and high pressure to the
north and west. Very strong winds are expected for Thompson Pass
and Valdez, especially tonight as the upper level flow becomes
more favorable. The cold air combined with gap winds along the
northern Alaska Range will drop wind chills to as low as -45
tonight and possibly Sunday night. The surface low centered over
the northeast gulf will slowly drift south through tonight then
quickly exit southeast Sunday and Sunday night. This will allow
the gradient to relax and the winds to diminish. The associated
upper low centered near the tip of the Kenai peninsula will drift
east-southeast through Sunday night.

Some lingering light showers are possible to the east of Cook
Inlet as cold advection pushes the moisture up against the
mountains. These should end later today as the air mass becomes
progressively drier. Some wrap-around moisture from the Gulf low
will produce some showers over the Copper River basin and eastern
Prince William Sound areas through tonight. Dry conditions are
then expected Sunday and Sunday night as the low exits the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold and dry conditions will persist through the weekend beneath
mostly clear skies as a high amplitude ridge builds over the
southwest mainland from the west. A tight pressure gradient will
continue to produce gusty winds along the Aleutian and Alaska
Ranges through tonight before diminishing on Sunday as the strong
gulf low departs to the southeast. Dry northerly flow will begin
to give way to easterly winds and increasing mid and high level
clouds along the coast on Sunday as the Bering front makes slow
eastward progress towards the mainland. However, any associated
precipitation is expected to remain offshore as the ridge cuts off
into a closed high and remains anchored over the northwest
mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Northerly flow and cold air advection will continue to produce
gale force winds and storm force gusts over the coastal waters to
the southwest of Kodiak Island through tonight on the backside of
the trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Scattered snow showers will
also continue across the Alaska Peninsula before the northerly
flow begins to weaken with the departure of the trough. Otherwise,
the strong front currently moving through the Western Bering will
be the primary feature of interest through the weekend as it
makes slow eastward progress across the Bering/Aleutians. The
front will bring storm force winds and potentially heavy
precipitation to Adak and Atka later today before moving towards
the Pribilof Island and Eastern Aleutians and gradually weakening
tonight into Sunday. Precipitation may begin as a rain/snow mix
with the arrival of the front, but should then quickly transition
to all rain as warm North Pacific air streams northward. Cold
advection behind the front will then bring scattered snow showers
to much of the Western and Central Bering by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period Sunday evening, a deep arctic
trough will be moving southeast away from Alaska with a weaker
upper trough remaining over the state. However, with a weakening
pressure gradient and clearing skies, the remaining arctic airmass
will be good enough to result in some of the coldest temps of the
winter over Southcentral. Arctic troughing inland will weaken
Monday and Tuesday as a Bering low moves toward Kodiak Island with
increasing cloud cover and slowly warming temperatures aloft.
Offshore flow will remain in place, however, which will keep
temperatures well below average through midweek. Meanwhile, snow
and snow showers will move into parts of SOuthwest Alaska and
eventually the North Gulf Coast Monday night and Tuesday. Most of
the precipitation should remain along the coast across
Southcentral with downslope flow likely keeping inland locations
on the dry side. By late week, uncertainty grows, but with
blocking over the Arctic and ridging extending through the Bering
Sea, it is likely Southcentral will remain on the drier and colder
side as upper level north to northeast flow keeps an offshore
pressure gradient in place.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131.
  Wind Chill Advisory 141 145.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131 132 138 175 176 177 185.
  Gale Warning 121 127 128 129 136 137 150 170 172 173 174 179
181.
  Heavy Frz Spray 129 130 138 140 160 180. &&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK