Gale Warning 769, NWS Anchorage, AK

535 
FZAK62 PAFC 060022
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-061500-
322 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1013 MB LOW AT 57N 159W WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AND EXIT TO THE GULF OF ALASKA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH WED. A FRONT WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY
THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ411-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
322 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
322 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
322 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
322 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

353 
FZAK62 PAFC 061244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070145-
344 AM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THU MORNING. A 986 MB CENTRAL KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES INTO THE RUSSIAN
FAR EAST WED MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU MORNING. A 1018 MB LOW FORMS AT 54N 179E THU
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-070145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-070145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-070145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-070145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

586 
FZAK62 PAFC 070022
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071430-
322 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AS IT STALLS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A 1022 MB LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AT 52N 178E WED NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 54N
177W AT 1021 MB THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ411-071430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
322 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
322 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
322 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
322 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

504 
FZAK62 PAFC 071243
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080200-
343 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI
MORNING. A 966 MB KAMCHATKA LOW DRIVES INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST
DRAWING THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH FRI
MORNING. A 988 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW AT 45N 168E APPROACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-080200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 177W. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

676 
FZAK62 PAFC 080002
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081600-
302 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WEAKENS THROUGH FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEAKENS THROUGH THU THEN BUILDS
BACK IN FRI. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 48N 171E AT 990 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-081600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
302 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. S OF 56N AND W OF 178E...WINDS
BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. N OF 56N AND E OF 178E...SE WIND 30 KT
BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NW 15 TO 25 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON W OF 176W. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
302 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

631 
FZAK62 PAFC 081231
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1020 MB LOW FORMS AT 55N 179W MOVES TO 49N 167W AT 1021 MB AND
DISSIPATES FRI MIDDAY. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 51N 171E AT
997 MB SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. N OF 56N...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT
BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. W OF 176W...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT
BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. W OF 176W...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING
N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Arctic High pressure over Interior and Southwestern Alaska is
building eastward into Southcentral. In response to the clear
skies, diminishing winds, and deep snow pack in many areas,
temperatures have been dropping for much of the morning.
Temperatures have been hovering between 5 and 10 above in west
Anchorage and the Susitna Valley, with values from 5 above to 10
below in the Matanuska Valley, east Anchorage, and the western
Kenai. With the sun already setting, expect some of the coldest
air of the season tonight in Southcentral. More on that in the
Climate section.

An Omega blocking pattern is controlling the weather over much of
Alaska this afternoon. This is characterized by a highly amplified
ridge in the upper levels between two troughs to the east and
west.

While very cold air remains near the surface state-wide, warmer
air aloft associated with the advancing ridge is pushing eastward
over southwest Alaska. However, with such an arctic air mass in
place at the surface, it would be very difficult to tell at this
time as more areas than not remain below zero. A front delineating
the leading edge of the surface warm air extends north-south over
the Bering between the Pribilofs and the mainland. This is forcing
steady rain across the Pribilofs with gusty winds. A showery,
convective environment is west of the Pribilofs with upper level
cold air in place above surface warm air, thus causing the
instability.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in great agreement for the short term as the ridge
over the Bering pushes eastward into mainland Alaska, with a sharp
trough on its heels. Models also are in pretty good agreement on
the consolidation of this trough into an upper level low as it
pushes across Kodiak Island.

&&

.CLIMATE...

With many areas across Southcentral expected to see their coldest
temperatures of the season tonight, we couldn't help but wonder
how long it's been since temperatures this low were seen? To
answer this question, this list was made showing the forecast lows
for select sites across Southcentral tonight, along with a table
of dates indicating when the last time temperatures this low were
seen at those respective sites.

City.........Forecast Low temp...Last time it was this cold
-----------------------------------------------------------

Anchorage.......3 below....November 18, 2015
Cordova.........8 above....December 25, 2015
Gulkana.........24 below...November 22, 2016
Homer...........6 above....November 17, 2015
Kenai...........10 below...February 5, 2015
Kodiak..........15 above...December 13, 2015
Merrill Field...6 below....November 18, 2015
Palmer..........5 below....November 18, 2015
Seward..........10 above...March 15, 2015
Soldotna........12 below...November 17, 2015
Talkeetna.......5 below....November 29, 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Cloud cover kept temperatures across Southcentral Alaska quite a
bit warmer last night than they had the potential to fall to given
the very cold air mass aloft which has pushed to the area with the
arctic trough. Skies clearing with the departure of the Gulf low
to the southeast however, will allow temperatures to fall much
more sharply tonight. Also as the low pulls away, northwesterly
outflow winds will continue to diminish along the western Gulf.
Northerly flow out of the Copper River Basin supported by the cold
pool deepening inland, however will last longer, continuing
northeast winds through Thompson Pass and Keystone Canyon and
north outflow winds across the Copper River Delta.

An upper level ridge building in from the west will shift over the
western Gulf tonight beginning to warm temperatures aloft over
that area. A frontal system following behind will spread precipitation
across Kodiak Island on Monday and over the eastern Kenai Peninsula
and northern Gulf Coast Monday night. Once the associated low crosses
the Alaska Peninsula Monday night and Kodiak Island Tuesday morning
it will continue slowly to the southeast Tuesday with a variety of
troughs and small surface lows rotating around the periphery of
the Gulf. Further north and inland, the cold air mass and offshore
northerly flow will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Clouds continue to increase tonight especially along the Kuskokwim
Delta as the Bering front approaches the region. The very cold
dome of air over the mainland will serve as a block for this
system, with a new triple point low developing near the Pribilofs
tonight and then sliding toward the Alaska Peninsula Monday. The
warm advection aloft, along with overrunning (isentropic lift) and
upslope flow will make the western half of the Bristol Bay region
the most susceptible to the highest snow accumulations, but no
advisories, watches, or warnings are anticipated with this system.
The biggest question mark with this system will be extent of snow
inland toward Bethel and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. The 12z and
18z NAM runs continues to depict a slightly different upper level
pattern that allows for accumulating snow to reach Bethel. Some
deference was given to the NAM, resulting in the raising of some
POPs. Precipitation will begin to taper off once again by Monday
night as the low departs towards the Gulf, bringing a return of
drier northerly flow heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The primary forecast concerns through Monday will be largely
confined to the southeast Bering as the strong gale-force front
moves eastward from the Pribilof Islands to the Eastern Aleutians
and the Alaska Peninsula later today, with the aforementioned
triple-point low forming late tonight and pushing through Bristol
Bay on Monday. This will keep a strong south-southeast winds and
a rain/snow mix over much of the region through Monday, with the
developing triple point then helping to focus stronger northwest
winds over the Akpen on Monday night as cold advection commences
on the backside of the low. This will also facilitate a change
back to snow as the predominant precipitation type as the event
begins to wind down. The next front will then enter the far
western Aleutians Monday night accompanied by more southerly winds
and potentially heavy precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A continuation of below normal temperatures and little
precipitation will characterize the extended forecast. Day 3
begins Tuesday afternoon with a weakening upper level low sliding
into the Gulf. There is little frontal activity with this system,
but a decent pool of cold air aloft (-35C to -40C) in which to
promote shower activity. The pattern will keep snow showers along
the north Gulf coast through Wednesday, especially in the western
Prince William Sound area. The combination of high pressure in the
Interior/Yukon and low in the Gulf will keep gap winds going from
Valdez through the Copper River Delta. Overall the pattern will be
very dry and cold through mid-week, however, some moisture could
make it over the mountains in the form of flurries.

The extended forecast looks to be much of the same as well,
continued arctic air overhead with little threat for precipitation.
The two features that will shape the pattern are a developing
blocking high pressure over northwestern Alaska, and a large
anchoring Siberian low pressure. The east Asian jet working around
the south side of the trough will be split as the blocking high
sends part of the energy south of the Aleutians. Confidence is
higher that we will remain in the dry and cold pattern through the
end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 145.
MARINE...Gales 127 130 155 165 172 178 180 181 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray...121 126 127 129 130 139 160 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN/JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...ML