Gale Warning 768, NWS Anchorage, AK

611 
FZAK61 PAFC 040019
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST SAT DEC 3 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-041400-
319 PM AKST SAT DEC 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW AT 59N 146W WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT EXITS THE
GULF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-041400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
319 PM AKST SAT DEC 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-041400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
319 PM AKST SAT DEC 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.

$$

198 
FZAK61 PAFC 041225
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-050245-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1005 MB LOW AT 58N 144W MOVES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A 1015 MB LOW MOVES TO 59N 142W TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-050245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-050245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

742 
FZAK61 PAFC 050021
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-051400-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 54N 140W CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF MON AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
1016 MB LOW FORMING NEAR 58N 152W MON NIGHT. THE LOW DRIFTS TO 57N
150W AT 1014 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-051400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-051400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 PM AKST Fri Dec 2 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The very active weather pattern continues across Southcentral
today. A deep low over the northeastern Gulf near the northern
Panhandle and a bitterly cold arctic high pressure over northern
and western Alaska are putting the squeeze-play on the surface
winds in between. The dense, very cold air is funneling through
the passes in the Alaska Range, and also around the north and
south ends of Kodiak Island. A very useful tool for determining
the wind gusts through this area was the 1958 UTC ASCAT pass. It
shows a maximum wind of 82 mph west of the Barren Islands, with
61 mph maximum winds southeast of Sitkinak Island.

Strong northwest winds around Kodiak, especially of the magnitude
we have been seeing, has resulted in the resuspension of ash from
the Katmai volcanic eruption around Shelikof Strait, both visible
satellite and the higher resolution images from the area confirm
it.

In addition, the winds have been increasing through Kodiak and
Chiniak Bay. Gusts in Kodiak have already been approaching 70 mph
this morning. A high wind warning remains in effect there through
Noon tomorrow.

With polar high pressure centered over Southwest Alaska, while the
weather through the area is sunny with light winds, it is quite cold.
The low temperature in Bethel was 18 below last night, the coldest
temperature they've seen in almost two years (January 22, 2015).
Even more impressive, King Salmon got to 21 below this morning,
the first time they've reached that temperature since December 21,
2012!

A far weaker low is traversing the central Bering this afternoon.
Its attendant warm front extending south of the low is producing
snow from residual lift as the warm air mass overrides the much
colder air mass further east. Thus, locales from Cold Bay, Dutch
Harbor, Saint George, and Saint Paul have all been getting some
snow in association with the low and the front.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are all in good agreement with the forecast for the
next couple days. For local effects, the models, while in good
agreement have not depicted the evolution of recent snow and wind
events well for the past few days, thus numerous hand edits were
done to better handle this somewhat unique pattern. As it has been
quite a while since an air mass this cold has affected Southcentral,
some differences in the forecast that aren't necessarily well
represented in the models are primarily focused on the winds
through many of the gaps in Southcentral. The air mass is colder
and denser in reality than the models have represented, and thus
the winds are subject to be stronger than the models have.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main surface low is now centered to the west of Cross Sound
with a trailing trough running back to the west along the northern
Gulf Coast. Northwesterly flow has been rapidly increasing along
the Western Gulf as an upper level trough swings across the Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges and an extremely cold air mass begins to push
in behind. Hurricane Force winds will continue to blow through
gaps in the Aleutian Range and out of bays and passes. These
strong gusts extend over Kodiak Island as well and will continue
through the overnight hours.

Offshore gap winds are also strengthening in locations such as
Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal and the Valdez area and will
continue to strengthen overnight and continue into the weekend.
Winds through Thompson Pass will likely be the strongest
especially as the cold pool deepens over the Copper River through
the weekend. Downsloping winds mixing down into the Valdez area
are a potential concern with the best chance for strong mountain
wave activity late Saturday night and Sunday morning as a
shortwave backs around the north side of the upper level low
persisting over the eastern Gulf.

Cold advection induced snow showers across Cook Inlet and along
the west facing slopes of the Chugach Mountains will continue
through the night tonight and then taper off gradually Saturday.
Temperatures will plummet across south central Alaska tonight
through the weekend with wind chills a significant concern through
and around Broad Pass and Isabel Passes where north winds will be
rather breezy.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A few snow showers will continue to develop across the Kuskokwim
Delta through the evening as a weakening surface trough slowly
moves south then dissipates overnight. Frigid temperatures persist
through the weekend as a surface ridge over the Bering builds
inland and shifts to the north central interior. Northerly flow
will be the prevailing wind after the surface trough diminishes
tonight. The pressure gradient remains tight along and near the
Alaska and Aleutian ranges through Saturday night due to the
building ridge and Gulf low retrograding. This will bring gusty
conditions along higher elevations and along and near the Alaska
and Aleutian ranges which tapers down on Sunday when the Gulf low
moves southeast. A change in wind direction for the Kuskokwim
Delta and the far Western Capes is expected on Sunday as a front
moves into the eastern Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front stretched from just northeast of the Pribilof Island to
the eastern Aleutians weakens this evening as the upper level low
races southeast and disassociates from the surface low as it lags
behind. The impacts around this system will be wind shifts around
the surface low passage and snow showers across the southern
Bering, Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as it moves into
the Pacific tonight. The main focus across the Bering this weekend
is centered around the low pushing the front into the western
Bering this afternoon. Storm force gusts will accompany the front
along with snow and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period Sunday evening, a deep arctic
trough will be moving southeast away from Alaska with a weaker
upper trough remaining over the state. However, with a weakening
pressure gradient and clearing skies, the remaining arctic airmass
will be good enough to result in some of the coldest temps of the
winter over Southcentral. Arctic troughing inland will weaken
Monday and Tuesday as a Bering low moves toward Kodiak Island with
increasing cloud cover and slowly warming temperatures aloft.
Offshore flow will remain in place, however, which will keep
temperatures well below average through midweek. Meanwhile, snow
and snow showers will move into parts of SOuthwest Alaska and
eventually the North Gulf Coast Monday night and Tuesday. Most of
the precipitation should remain along the coast across
Southcentral with downslope flow likely keeping inland locations
on the dry side. By late week, uncertainty grows, but with
blocking over the Arctic and ridging extending through the Bering
Sea, it is likely Southcentral will remain on the drier and colder
side as upper level north to northeast flow keeps an offshore
pressure gradient in place.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131 171. Wind Chill Advisory 141 145.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 126 127 129 130 136 137
								      138 140 141 160 180 181.
 		 Hurricane Force Wind Warning 130 138.
		 Storm Warning 131 132 136 137 175 176 177 178 185.
	     Gale Warning 120 121 127 128 129 150 170 171 172 173
					  174 179 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA