Gale Warning 766, NWS Anchorage, AK

849 
FZAK62 PAFC 021257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030130-
357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 58N 177W WILL MOVE TO 55N 159W AT 1020 MB LATE FRI
NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA SAT.

$$

PKZ411-030130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW TO NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

.TODAY...SW TO NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 AM AKST Thu Dec 1 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A low that has moved into the northern Gulf is bringing snow to
areas around Southcentral Alaska with the heaviest snow along the
north Gulf coast. However, there is enough warm air for some areas
right along the water to see some rain. Southwest Alaska is seeing
colder temperatures with northerly winds which is bringing wind
chills to near 40 below around the Kuskokwim Delta. Further west,
cold northerly flow dominates most of the Bering and Aleutian
Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement through the mid term for the main
synoptic features. There are a few placement issues with a low
tracking across the Bering Thursday night into Friday, but these
differences will not result in much of a change for impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow will continue throughout the TAF period but will
lighten this afternoon before picking back up this evening. The
biggest uncertainty is with placement of the main snow band this
morning. As it shifts back and forth to the east and west
conditions may change quickly. There is also uncertainty with how
far conditions will drop this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low along the northern Gulf coast will move into the
Kenai Peninsula today. The upper level support for this system
will weaken today and the associated moisture will slowly move
north. A weak deformation band will remain over south central
Alaska between the meridional trough over western Alaska and a
low deepening over the southern Gulf later today. As this low
moves into the eastern Gulf, the deformation band will briefly
strengthen for another decent chance of snow over the Kenai
Peninsula and northward to the Talkeetna Mountains. The
deformation band will then dissipate later on Friday.

A strong outflow pattern will begin on Friday and Friday night.
The Gulf low will settle in just south of Yakutat, while a surface
high builds over southwest Alaska under the upper level trough.
Winds are expected to reach storm force in favored marine areas
as the gradient tightens. Temperatures will begin to drop across
the area. Conditions will also dry out, with the exception of the
Copper River basin where some "wrap-around" moisture could bring
some snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As the low south of the Alaska Peninsula moves northeast to the
Kenai Peninsula this morning, snow showers will come to an end
over Bristol Bay. They will, however, continue along the AK and
Aleutian Ranges even as the Kenai low is absorbed into an
approaching Gulf low later today. The mountain snow showers will
then end Fri afternoon as the merged low moves east.

As the low moves into the Gulf today, before merging with the
Kenai low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Alaska
Peninsula. This will induce northwest flow through channeled
terrain that will result in storm and hurricane force gusts in
marine areas south of the peninsula through Fri night. A weak
ridge will build over the southwest Fri night through Sat with
cold and dry conditions, except for some snow showers along the
AKpen as a front approaches from the west on Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low and associated fronts moving across the central Bering and
Aleutians will spread mainly snow showers across the region. As
the system moves east, these snow showers will reach the eastern
Aleutians Fri into Sat. The next front will be associated with a
Kamchatka low. The front will enter the western Bering and
Aleutians on Fri, with snow changing to rain as it moves to the
eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands by Sat night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

As we approach the weekend, high pressure will continue to build
in across mainland alaska, with low pressure remaining in the
Gulf of Alaska. This will help to support strong gusty offshore
flow across much of the Gulf of Alaska, with particularly strong
winds occurring across Kodiak Island, Shelikof Straight, and the
Barren Islands. This will continue to support strong cold air
advection and plummeting temperatures this weekend, with likely
the coldest temperatures of the season so far.

By early next week, a pattern change will begin to bring slightly
warmer temperatures back to the Alaska mainland as a trough begins
to push across the southwest mainland. This will help to bring
more moderate temperatures to the region with widespread clouds
and southerly flow across the southwest mainland. It will also
help to dramatically decrease the pressure gradient between the
mainland and Gulf of Alaska and stop the offshore flow and strong
cold air advection.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory...155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray...160 180 181.
		 Gales...136 137 138 155 160 165 170 172 178 180.
		 Storms...130 131 132 150.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...EN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
944 AM AKST THU DEC 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     SNOW             3 S ANCHORAGE           61.17N 149.86W
12/01/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL

0715 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
12/01/2016  M0.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            13 DEGREES, FLURRIES

0748 AM     SNOW             1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.11N 149.71W
12/01/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0926 AM     SNOW             4 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.83W
12/01/2016  M2.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0926 AM     SNOW             GIRDWOOD                60.94N 149.18W
12/01/2016  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0926 AM     SNOW             4 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.94W
12/01/2016  M4.3 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0926 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.15N 149.98W
12/01/2016  M5.2 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            0.1 INCHES 9PM-MIDNIGHT 11/30, 1.5 INCHES MIDNIGHT-3AM
            12/1, 3.6 INCHES 3AM-9AM 12/1

0926 AM     SNOW             VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
12/01/2016  M11.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0926 AM     SNOW             1 W GLEN ALPS           61.10N 149.73W
12/01/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1012 AM AKST THU DEC 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     SNOW             5 SSE SPENARD           61.13N 149.83W
12/01/2016  M2.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1026 AM AKST THU DEC 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 AM     SNOW             WILLOW                  61.74N 150.06W
12/01/2016  M8.3 INCH                           AK   COCORAHS

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
211 PM AKST THU DEC 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     SNOW             1 E POTTER MARSH        61.05N 149.76W
12/01/2016  M2.7 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 2.7 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW
            ACCUMULATION THROUGH 2 PM.

&&

MCLAY