Gale Warning 708, NWS Anchorage, AK

345 
FZAK52 PAFC 121231
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130115-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 MB LOW 175 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
AS IT TRACKS SOUTH AND CROSSES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MIDDAY TODAY.
A 967 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS AT 964 MB AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAKENING AND CONTINUING EAST INTO THE
GULF SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-130115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-130115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-130115-
BRISTOL BAY-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-130115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-130115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-130115-
UNALASKA BAY-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-130115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-130115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-130115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-130115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-130115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-130115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-130115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-130115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-130115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-130115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-130115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
331 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NW OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 AM AKST Fri Nov 11 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large area of low pressure persists over the southern Gulf with
frontal waves and shortwave troughs continuing to rotate around
it. The remnants of the tight surface low which crossed the Kenai
Peninsula this afternoon and evening are currently weakening over
Cook Inlet and mountains to the west. East to southeast gap winds
are currently diminishing and should continue to do so through
the early morning hours. Showers from the northern Gulf will move
onshore through Prince William Sound and over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. Another frontal wave is pushing over Kodiak Island and
the Barrens.

Out west..a frontal band remains nearly stationary over the
Kuskokwim Delta bringing light snow to Bethel and the surrounding
area. Elsewhere across southwest Alaska, clearing skies bring the
threat of fog in areas where winds have become light. So far the
areas of denser fog have formed around the periphery of Bristol
Bay but patchy fog is possible inland as well. Further west a
front associated with a north Pacific low stretches from west to
east across all but the eastern most Aleutians. Cool northerly
flow is bringing snow showers to the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in fair synoptic agreement through around Saturday
morning and then diverge rapidly in the handling of a trough
lifting into the northern Gulf Saturday afternoon/evening and a
probable closed low following Saturday night and Sunday. The NAM
was preferred for the short term followed by the Canadian GDPS for
the eastern domain and ECMWF/GFS for the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue through Saturday morning with
rain shadowing effects keeping lower conditions confined to the
mountains to the east. Winds will remain light mainly out of the
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The unseasonably warm pattern continues for the near future with
the majority of rain showers sticking along the North Gulf coast.
A weakening upper level low will de-amplify as it gets pushed
toward the Gulf coast today. Rain showers will affect the area,
pushing into the Copper River Basin this afternoon where the
precipitation type will be snow. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible,
mainly south of Glennallen. Rain looks to be done elsewhere, with
a break until Saturday when another front rolls up from the south.
Again, this will mostly affect the North Gulf coast while the
Cook Inlet region stays dry from downslope. Temperatures will
remain above normal in the mid to upper 30s during the day, and
winds will be generally light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A weather front stalled over the Kuskokwim Delta continues to
produce light accumulating snow out ahead of it mainly from Bethel
west to the coast. To the east of this front, a Pacific air mass
moving over much colder surfaces is contributing to fog formation
throughout much of the remainder of the Southwest mainland. A
second weakening front associated with a low developing over the
eastern Bering Friday will bring another brief round rain and snow
mainly along the coast, with the possibility of overrunning light
snow in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and eastern Bristol Bay Friday
night into early Saturday. Another round of rain, snow and
possibly some patchy light freezing rain will move into Southwest
Alaska as yet another more organized front pushes across the area
from the south and east later Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong low pressure systems in the vicinity of the Alaska
Peninsula will continue to push warmer Pacific air masses from the
North Pacific into the eastern Bering Sea through the next couple
of days, all while a northerly cold advection snow shower regime
continues over the central and western Bering and the Aleutian
chain. The Pribilofs will continue in a very active weather
pattern as it will be situated near the main front dividing these
two air masses, resulting in a wet snow with with strong winds
continuing into the overnight tonight before warmer Pacific air
changes the snow to rain. Marginally colder temperatures are
likely to return by the end of the weekend returning precipitation
type back to snow. Over the Aleutians, snow or a snow/rain mix
will also transition to all rain as warmer Pacific air rotates
around the low in the vicinity of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An upper level low will remain situated across the Alaska
Peninsula through Monday morning as another upper level low over
Siberia forms a pseudo-Rex blocking feature. This blocking feature
will break down Monday afternoon as the upper level pattern
amplifies in response to a potent jet streak and upper level
disturbance pushing off the Kamchatka Peninsula. In the mean time,
the upper level low over the Alaska Peninsula will have a front
that extends into the North Pacific. A triple point low looks to
develop along the front and move into the southern gulf on Monday.
This will bring another potent area of low pressure toward the
northern gulf coast with another gale force barrier jet (possibly
stronger deepening on how quickly the low wraps up) and another
decent rainfall event to much of the gulf coast and eastern Kenai
Peninsula. Downsloping during the event looks to keep much of the
interior portion on the dry side as well as keep temperatures
above normal. However, a transition from above normal to near
normal (possibly below normal across the Copper River Basin) will
return as the upper level pattern shifts and colder air finally
filters in over the mainland.

The Bering Sea will be quiet for much of the extended period as
the bulk of the action will be in the eastern domain. Gale force
winds will be seen across the Pribilof Islands south toward Dutch
Harbor due to the tight pressure gradient but lighter winds are
expected for the western half of the Bering. This all changes on
Wednesday as a very nice low will push off Kamchatka and into the
Bering Sea but models struggle on the exact placement and timing
of this low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 130-131 138 150 160 165 170-172 175 176 179 180
              181 185 412-414.
         Storm 173 174.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC