Gale Warning 658, NWS Anchorage, AK

922 
FZAK61 PAFC 090020
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091400-
320 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA... 
A 972 MB LOW AT 57N 149W WILL DISSIPATE OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT WED
MORNING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF WED MORNING...MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WED AFTERNOON...AND WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH
WED NIGHT. A 975 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N 143W WED NIGHT AND
MOVE TO 60N 150W BY THU AFTERNOON AT 972 MB.

$$

PKZ351-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
320 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
320 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 18
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

745 
FZAK61 PAFC 091244
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100130-
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE THIS MORNING AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKENS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. A 949 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 55N 146W AT 970
MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT BUILDING TO 21 TO
25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

293 
FZAK61 PAFC 100033
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101445-
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING...THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
56N 140W TONIGHT AND MOVE TO 60N 148W AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING INLAND THU EVENING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AT 964 MB
THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 59N 147W AT 978 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-101445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS SEAS 12 TO 16 FT BUILDING TO 
16 TO 24 FT BY MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 PM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Two large and deep cyclones are responsible for most of the weather
across the region today. An occluded low is tracking eastward on
the north side of the Western Aleutians with a leading gale force
frontal system spreading out across the Central Bering and
Aleutians. A 180 kt jet streak on the southern periphery of the
low is beginning to drive the upper trough east-southeastward
across the North Pacific, which will pull the low southward with
time and limit the eastward progression across the Bering Sea. The
second low is spinning nearly stationary at the base of the long-
wave trough in the Northeast Pacific. An occluded front is
rotating northwestward across the Gulf and toward Southcentral,
with precip pushing onshore of the Gulf coast. The air mass out
ahead of this front is just cold enough to support mainly snow (as
indicated by soundings and area surface obs. However, warmer air
will accompany the arrival of the front edge of precip. Area road
from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage are already snow and ice
covered, so arrival of snow transitioning to rain will only
compound the problem of slick roads.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
As has been the case of late, numerical guidance is in pretty good
agreement on synoptic evolution of key features over first two
days of the forecast. The primary forecast challenge lies with
small but significant differences in low level temperatures and
thicknesses which will affect precipitation type as precipitation
spreads across Southcentral this afternoon through tonight.
Surface temperatures will keep warming a little more as each
upper wave/surface front moves up from the Gulf, so the
predominant precipitation type will be trending more and more
toward rain. Overall forecast confidence across the region is
high, with much lower confidence in p-type this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The main forecast challenge is precip-type early in the
TAF period. Expect enough warm air to move in to produce mainly
rain with VFR ceilings and vis. However, there could be some snow
mixed in early on and some brief periods of marginal ceilings/vis
between 00z and 08z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska moves multiple shortwaves
over the southern mainland through Wednesday morning keeping precipitation
chances in the forecast. Temperatures inland are expected to drop to
near or below freezing each night with returns above the freezing mark
during the day. Only light precipitation is expected due to weak
dynamics, however surface conditions are going to be slick at
times through mid week with any rain and snow that falls. A
stalled warm front along the gulf should keep precip all rain
across the Prince William Sound, eastern Kenai, and Kodiak Island
with a mix along Cook Inlet. Offshore winds prevail through mid
week with gusts mainly along area waters as the surface low in the
western gulf meanders south of Kodiak. The next organized system
moves a warm front into the gulf early Wednesday. This storm will
bring gale to storm force winds on Wednesday along with moderate
to heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An elongated band of Flurries and light snow has set up along the
eastern most portion of the Bristol Bay zone today and will
persist through Tuesday morning, as the weakening upper level
disturbance stalls along the mountains and generates enough
forcing for some light snow/flurries to continue developing. By
this evening, weak ridging will keep conditions cloudy but
otherwise dry through Tuesday morning, with light offshore flow
for the remainder of the southwest mainland. By Tuesday, multiple
southeasterly waves rounding the northern periphery of a weakening
upper low in the western gulf will push into the Alaska/Aleutian
range. These waves will keep wet and cloudy conditions over much
of the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Valley areas through Wednesday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Active weather will continue through Wednesday, as The front
associated with the low over the western Bering begins to weaken
over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula tonight, and a
second low develops and deepens over the Central bering by early
Tuesday morning. Storm force northerly winds will then shift into
the western Bering/Aleutians on Tuesday, allowing for strong cold
air advection and showers to spread through much of the Bering.
There is some uncertainty in the models as to how quickly this
second low will weaken as it begins to dive southward into the
North Pacific, but there is generally good agreement that winds
will fall to gale force or less throughout the Aleutians with
continued rain/snow showers through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range forecast will be characterized by low pressure
south of mainland Alaska. As weaker lows traversing the area are
absorbed into the main low it will meander around the southern
Gulf and south of the Alaska Peninsula. There does remain some
disagreement amongst the models on how many weak surface lows will
be embedded within the broader area of low pressure, but impacts
should remain similar. This setup will bring southerly flow and
more warm air to the southern mainland, while the Bering and
Aleutians will see northerly flow and cold air advection. The
heaviest precipitation will be along the north Gulf coast and
looks to be warm enough to fall as predominately rain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 131 173 174 179.
		 Storm 175-178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK