Gale Warning 464, NWS Anchorage, AK

334 
FZAK51 PAFC 072329
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081230-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 30 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY DISSIPATES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
EASES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT. WEAK TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON MORNING SPREADING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA THROUGH TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-081230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 30 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-081230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-081230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-081230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-081230-
PORT VALDEZ-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-081230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-081230-
VALDEZ ARM-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
ARM IN THE EVENING. WIND BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-081230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THROUGH THE EVENING. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-081230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-081230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-081230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-081230-
CHINIAK BAY-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ137-081230-
MARMOT BAY-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-081230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-081230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-081230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-081230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low pressure system centered near Nunivak Island continues to
drive much of the weather across both Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska today. As this low remains nearly stationary in the
eastern Bering Sea, several associated fronts continue to impact
the region. Currently one front is pushing inland along the
north gulf coast and slowly dissipating and supporting local gap
winds and showers. A second front is currently developing across
the Alaska Peninsula and poised to intensify rapidly as it pushes
eastward into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. Currently this front is
bringing widespread rain and showers to portions of Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

While models are in generally good agreement, today they have
shown poor run to run consistency, particularly with respect to
the intensification of the front that will progress across the
western gulf to eastern gulf starting late tonight into tomorrow.
Models today indicate a front with much stronger winds and better
defined pressure gradients which will result in stronger winds
through local gaps. However, due to poor run to run consistency,
there is some uncertainty in the intensity and timing of the
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The large upper level low will remain centered near Nunivak island
through the weekend. A developing frontal wave south of the Alaska
Peninsula will swing into the southwestern Gulf this evening,
cross Kodiak Island tonight and then push into the northern Gulf
on Sunday. This frontal system will bring a good bit of rain to
the Gulf Coast as well as windy conditions. East to southeast
wind will increase to around 35 knots in portions of the northern
Gulf as well as Prince William Sound late tonight through Sunday
with strong winds channeling through Turnagain Arm, the Knik and
Copper River Valleys and other similarly oriented terrain gaps as
well. Rain will change over to showers Sunday night and Monday
after the front swings through, though conditions will remain
generally damp under southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A rather impressive looking occluded low on satellite imagery is
spinning off the coast near Nunivak Island. This surface feature
will move inland tonight with showers turning to more stratiform
rain over the Kuskokwim Delta. Strong east to southeast winds are
also accompanying this low with the strongest core of winds along
the Kuskokwim Delta coastline. Elsewhere, showers will be more
dominant as some degree of cross-barrier flow across the Alaska
Range will help keep deep moisture from turning those showers into
widespread rain. Thereafter, the low will move inland then stall
over the Kuskokwim Delta, keeping a moist and showery regime over
the region through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An impressive low, at least on satellite imagery, has wrapped up
over the Eastern Bering Sea this afternoon, with the strongest
core of winds extending from the Pribilof Islands to the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. The front has moved into the Gulf of Alaska, with a
rather large dry slot carving out over most of the Eastern
Aleutians. A warm front over the Western and Central Aleutians is
weakening, but is still bringing some rain and fog to those areas.
With time, the front will weaken and move southeast while the
upper low weakens and moves inland, so rather quiet weather will
develop over the region through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in good agreement that the upper level low over
western Alaska will steadily weaken through Wednesday. Rain over
south central Alaska will become more showery by midweek and continue
into the coming weekend. Ridging will move into southwest Alaska by
Tuesday night that will also reduce some of the shower activity,
but a low moving rapidly out of Siberia will redevelop
precipitation over southwest Alaska Wednesday.

The next low will be the remnants of a tropical storm system which
will enter the western Aleutian Islands Wednesday evening and
absorb the Siberian low over the central Bering Sea. This merger
will enhance precipitation as it moves across the Bering Sea into
southwest Alaska Thursday into Saturday.

Winds associated with the remnants of the tropical storm will
increase to gales over the extreme western Aleutians on Thursday,
but the main impact will be seas made higher by an extremely long
fetch across the north Pacific. However, there remains significant
uncertainty with both wind speeds as well as combined seas
beginning late Wednesday and lasting into the weekend. The
forecast utilized the GFS and WPC solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 125 352.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS