Gale Warning 429, NWS Anchorage, AK

014 
FZAK61 PAFC 181127
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190100-
327 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEAKENS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. A
SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT....THEN SLIDES EAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-190100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
327 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
327 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

612 
FZAK61 PAFC 182258
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191230-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEAKENS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. A
SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT....THEN SLIDES EAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-191230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

724 
FZAK61 PAFC 191135
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200145-
335 AM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH
MON EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-200145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 AM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 AM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

333 
FZAK61 PAFC 192333
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201400-
333 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ351-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
333 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
333 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge remains over the Southcentral region. This
synoptic feature extends from the central Gulf of Alaska northwest
through the interior into the Chukchi Sea. This is reflected at
the surface with numerous surface observations reporting clear
skies. While, the northern Bering Sea has a vertically stacked
low with an associated trough extending through the southwest
Alaska region into the southwestern Gulf area. The satellite
imagery is showing the bulk of the moisture through the northern
Bering, and a swath of clouds through the southwest Alaska region.
This feature is associated with the surface low positioned in the
Bristol Bay area, and the weather front pushing through the
southwest Alaska region this morning. While, the rest of the
Bering has low stratus, and the Scatterometer Wind imagery is
showing light westerly flow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in decent agreement through the weekend. The
southcentral Alaska region will have a ridge of high pressure
building along the northern Gulf. While, the southwest Alaska area
will have a weak low tracking towards the Y-K Delta region. The
Bering Sea and the Aleutian Chain will be under predominantly
westerly flow. This will result in a showery weather regime
through the weekend. The forecast confidence is average, and the
nam/gfs were the preferred models.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are expected across the Copper River basin
Friday afternoon through Friday evening. As the front slowly moves
in from the southwest, the surface ridge over the northeast Gulf
of Alaska strengthens. At the same time, inland heating in east
central Alaska will combine with the ridge beginning to break
down. This will lead to fairly gusty winds. Temperatures will
continue to be very warm, and humidities very dry. On Saturday the
winds will be even stronger, but with lower temperatures and
higher humidities Red Flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The first of two fronts is located over Kodiak Island will be
working its way northeast, bringing with it cloudier and cooler
conditions through Sunday. The coastal ridge will build in
advance of the approaching frontal trough resulting in brisk gap
flows across Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and the Copper River Basin
today through Saturday. Rain develops later today across the Kenai
and then pushes across the remainder of Southcentral overnight
into Saturday. The exception being Copper River Basin, where
downslope winds will keep the area cloudy but dry. Cross- barrier
flow across the western Chugach slopes will keep Anchorage and
vicinity largely, but likely not completely, dry through Saturday.

By Saturday night a second front will move into the western gulf
and reinforce the gradient across the area. As a result stronger
southeast flow develops along with even stronger winds through
channeled terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weakening front is moving inland this morning and will continue
north before weakening and stalling along the Alaska Range. Moist
onshore flow will keep some patchy fog along the coast with
isolated to scattered shower activity. The bigger story will
become a rather potent and fast moving North Pacific low moving
into southwest Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Rather strong
southeast gap winds will accompany the front especially through
the mountain gaps of the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges. Moderate to heavy
rain will also accompany this low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A compact and fast moving surface low will move into the Central
Aleutians late this afternoon then quickly move into the Eastern
Bering Saturday, bringing rain and 25 to 30 KT winds. This low
will move inland by Sunday, leaving extensive stratus and some
areas of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The next incoming frontal system will bring abundant precipitation
and breezy east to southeast winds to southwest Alaska as it
pushes inland Saturday night and Sunday and to southcentral Alaska
Sunday and Sunday night. Gap winds especially through areas such
as Turnagain Arm, the Copper River Valley and similarly oriented
Valleys will continue to strengthen through the weekend peaking in
the afternoons and evenings with Sunday afternoon especially
windy. Additionally winds east to southeast winds in the Gulf and
Prince William Sounds associated with the front and resulting
coast jet will increase to gale force by Sunday.

While the frontal system itself will lift north and inland on
Monday allowing the steady rain to change over to showers, the
upper level trough swinging into southwest Alaska will keep
conditions unsettled and showers numerous. A transient ridge
building over the Bering on Monday will push into southwest Alaska
Tuesday and southcentral Alaska Wednesday bringing another day or
two of warmer and drier weather. With southwesterly flow aloft
building in quickly behind the ridge however, the sunnier break
looks brief with the next frontal system swinging into southwest
Alaska Wednesday and continuing east Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning...141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW/BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...JR